Politics Thread!

[pogo]

65% currently claiming the will not vote for the Conservative party

About as many as will not vote for the Labour party (they are dead level according to the BBC’s poll aggregate). But when you look at the issues there are big differences on how the parties are trusted on the economy:

35% of people will vote for Labour. Yet only 27% trust them to make the right decisions on the economy.

[gravy]

65% currently claiming the will not vote for the Conservative party

About as many as will not vote for the Labour party

Absolutely, it'd be equally idiotic to claim 'most people' understand labour's position

[pogo]

My point was on the economy more people trust the Tories more. And it’s more worrying if you look at the figures. I mean a lot of Labour voters will support Labour whatever, a lot of Tories supporters will support the Tories. So with them both at around 35% percent in the polls you would expect at least 35% of voters to support their economic policies.

But it’s far less for Labour. Comparing the figures around 1/4 of Labour voters don’t trust them on the economy, on top of presumably all supporters of the other parties. That’s frankly worrying, that so many people think Labour economically incompetent but will vote for them anyway.

[gravy]

Most people don't trust the tories with the economy and whether they do or not has little bearing on their ability to run the economy.

This is going to be a close run election, pretending it isn't is just stupid. You might find it acceptable that the Conservatives don't have a solid plan to fund the cost of their promises but it's clear that many don't. You can't just wave it away.

[tufty]

You can't just wave it away.

Don't be daft. Of course you can. There's several ways of doing so, including, but not exclusively restricted to the following.

1 - You're misrepresenting what I said …
2 - The real issue is that …
3 - This graph clearly shows that …



Want proof? (Currently) 80 pages of this thread, another 265 pages about Ireland, most of which are best summarised by "pogo arguing whatever he's read on a blog this week""

[gravy]

I suspect he read Atlas Shrugged as a teen and thought it was a text book.

[merman]

My point was on the economy more people trust the Tories more. And it’s more worrying if you look at the figures. I mean a lot of Labour voters will support Labour whatever, a lot of Tories supporters will support the Tories. So with them both at around 35% percent in the polls you would expect at least 35% of voters to support their economic policies.

But it’s far less for Labour. Comparing the figures around 1/4 of Labour voters don’t trust them on the economy, on top of presumably all supporters of the other parties. That’s frankly worrying, that so many people think Labour economically incompetent but will vote for them anyway.

Yes, because we trusted the Tories to reduce the national debt - and they reduced it from £700 billion to £1.5 TRILLION.

We trusted their promise to reduce the deficit by 2015 and this election - which apparently they may get round to by 2018-19 if you trust their latest projections on growth (which are significantly different from the Budget, which were significantly different from the Autumn Statement).

We trusted the PROMISE from Cameron not to re-organise the NHS - and he re-organised it again, paving the way for hundreds of millions of pounds of NHS contracts to go to private companies (who hide their profits overseas to avoid paying tax).

Cameron pledged if he did not deal with net migration and get it to down to tens of thousands a year, we could kick him out. He failed.


You can go through every department and show how the Tories have failed.

Environment - greenest Government ever? No, axed renewable subsidies, stopped new windfarms and ordered a new nuclear plant (with huge subsidies).
Law & order - thousands of police axed, prisons overcrowded and with fewer prison officers working longer hours.
Justice - raised the cost of going to tribunal and small claims, making justice for the rich while hypocritically talking about Magna Carta.
Health - billions wasted on agency staff, A&E departments at breaking point because the Tories closed or downgraded A&E units, thousands of doctors and nurses leaving the profession, not enough new nurses trained, maternity wards closed and fewer midwives.
Education - flagship free schools in special measures, budgets drained from other schools, one if six teachers UNQUALIFIED, average class size up.
Immigration - failing to run order checks, net migration up

Cameron does not want a third term. Let's spare him the strain of a second.

[pogo]

I suspect he read Atlas Shrugged as a teen and thought it was a text book.

Lol whatever. That’s why I advocate for such Randian policies as lower inheritance tax thresholds, greater green taxes, or greater government intervention in the housing market to benefit those without their own homes.

Surprised no-one’s mentioned the job news today. Unemployment down again, to the lowest level since 2008. Worth pointing out it’s fallen much further and faster than people thought was possible even a couple of years ago. E.g. in mid 2013 the BoE said they would not raise the bank rate from 0.5% until unemployment passed 7%. They were forced to clarify when this happened far more quickly than than expected, in early 2014.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary ... dance.aspx

Two million jobs created under this government; the dire predictions of some that cuts would lead to massive rises in unemployment were wrong. It took longer for wage growth to resume, but it is now growing healthily: 2.2%, both in nominal and real terms as inflation is at zero. This is as expected, once the labour market tightened, and will probably improve as unemployment falls further still – although it cannot have much further to go, with the natural rate being somewhere around 5%.

Which also suggest the base rate will rise sooner rather than later. The current low rate of inflation is down to mostly temporary factors, such as oil prices and food prices. Inflation won’t stay there with wages rising at 2% or more, and could rebound to above 2%. Markets seem to have noticed, and the pound is up sharply pricing in the increased chance of a rate rise.

[pogo]

The Guardian shared this highlight from the last debate:

[merman]

I suspect he read Atlas Shrugged as a teen and thought it was a text book.

Lol whatever. That’s why I advocate for such Randian policies as lower inheritance tax thresholds, greater green taxes, or greater government intervention in the housing market to benefit those without their own homes.

Surprised no-one’s mentioned the job news today. Unemployment down again, to the lowest level since 2008. Worth pointing out it’s fallen much further and faster than people thought was possible even a couple of years ago. E.g. in mid 2013 the BoE said they would not raise the bank rate from 0.5% until unemployment passed 7%. They were forced to clarify when this happened far more quickly than than expected, in early 2014.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary ... dance.aspx

Two million jobs created under this government; the dire predictions of some that cuts would lead to massive rises in unemployment were wrong. It took longer for wage growth to resume, but it is now growing healthily: 2.2%, both in nominal and real terms as inflation is at zero. This is as expected, once the labour market tightened, and will probably improve as unemployment falls further still – although it cannot have much further to go, with the natural rate being somewhere around 5%.

Which also suggest the base rate will rise sooner rather than later. The current low rate of inflation is down to mostly temporary factors, such as oil prices and food prices. Inflation won’t stay there with wages rising at 2% or more, and could rebound to above 2%. Markets seem to have noticed, and the pound is up sharply pricing in the increased chance of a rate rise.

90,000 more people economically inactive.
1.3 million working part-time when they want full-time hours.
Over 700,000 job VACANCIES unfilled.
400,000 on unpaid workfare schemes.

[zip accident]

Over 700,000 job VACANCIES unfilled.

What jobs are those then?

"must be under 18 years old and have 20 years experience" or something real but not very nice?

[pogo]

Those are all interesting statistics Taking them in reverse order.

The unpaid/workfare numbers I’m not aware of, but those should decline with unemployment as more and more people move off benefit into work.

Far more full time jobs are being created now, and looking at just male employment the number of part time jobs is static, suggesting those in part time work are finding full time jobs as others start work part time. Again this will continue to improve with the economy.

The vacancy figure is high, but I think there are two reasons for this. Partly it’s the cyclical recovery: vacancies were low, more like 400,000, in the depths of the recession. Now firms are much more actively recruiting, visible in improving real wages as well as vacancies. But the vacancy rate is even higher than you would expect. I think this is due to regional variations, with employers in e.g. the SE finding it much harder to fill vacancies because of high house prices/rents particularly in London.

The 104,000 jump in economically inactive last quarter is an oddity, and goes against the other statistics. I think the cause may be early retirement, driven in part by the pension changes. From this month anyone 55 or over now out of work has the option of retiring and living off their pension pot, removing them from the employment statistics, and people may have acted on this early. It will become clearer when we have this quarter’s data.

Spoiler: show

[KlaxonCow]

Thank goodness for pogo.

I was under the mistaken impression that things weren't too economically hot at the moment, but he's here with glad tidings of the wondrous Utopia of prosperous full employment and luxurious living, absent all problems, that the coalition government has mercifully delivered unto us, through their god-like perfection.

Nothing is wrong. Everything is fine.

Carry on, good citizens, as all your apparent problems and hardships do not, in fact, exist. They are merely a figment of your imagination.

Your government loves you in its omnipotent benevolence because, basically, they're just totally fucking awesome in every possible way.

England prevails!

[JQW]

Over 700,000 job VACANCIES unfilled.

What jobs are those then?

"must be under 18 years old and have 20 years experience" or something real but not very nice?

If these figures are being obtained from the government's own Universal Jobmatch site, then there's a couple of major issues with them. Firstly many vacacies are duplicated, either through multiple agencies, or due to the fact that they've been posted with several different job descriptions. When our local golf club advertised for a steward, UJ carried eight sepearate advertisements for the post - four different job titles, each advertised by two related agencies.

Secondly, many vacancies on the site aren't actual job vacancies at all, but self-employment opportunities paid on a commision only basis, often with up-front fees for training or materials.

[pogo]

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get ... index.html

The Vacancy Survey is a regular survey of businesses, which provides an accurate and comprehensive measure of the total number of vacancies across the economy and fills a gap in the information available regarding the demand for labour. Before the Vacancy Survey was introduced, the only information available nationally about vacancies was from records of vacancies notified to Job Centres by employers. This provided only a partial picture, possibly less than half of all vacancies, because employers are under no obligation to notify vacancies to Job Centres. This business based survey has a more complete coverage and is included in the monthly ONS Labour Market Statistical Bulletin.