Politics Thread!

[Absolute_Zero]

Good article on the internal pressures that a hung parliament will present some of the parties.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... l-election

I usually do, but I don't agree with Cable [vs Clegg] on the EU referendum. The whole "issue" is entirely phoney... even the fleas on the dogs in the street should know that the UK is almost certain to vote to stay in. The polls clearly show it now, long before the obligatory big guns of business are wheeled out en-force with tales of [overstated] woe and disaster. Cameron knows it, even Farage must know that the merest possibility of the UK quitting would necessitate a collapse from within the EU. I don't get the widespread pretence... except that it's variously self-serving. e.g. Nicola presenting the very unlikely as possible in order to further the nationalist cause.

[gravy]

Yeah, I was a bit surprised my Farage already hedging his bets saying a stay in vote wouldn't mean the end of UKIP.

But I do think the issue the LibDems is there's a power struggle brewing and the EU issue is a good excuse as any for someone to use to try and get rid of Clegg with.

[Dio]

Big guns of business may say in, but all the right-wing press will shout out. I'm not so sure it's a foregone conclusion.

[gravy]

The risk is definitely proportional to the economic climate. If there was a 2017 referendum it'd be in the context of a bunch more cuts.

[Portland]

Given slightly over half of our exports go to the EU, having to charge an extra 15-30% for those goods, especially with the Euro on the drop (looking at buying my next guitar from Germany at the moment) coming out of the EU without a preagreed mutual trade agreement seems a shit idea.

[Absolute_Zero]

Big guns of business may say in, but all the right-wing press will shout out. I'm not so sure it's a foregone conclusion.

The right-wing press have been shouting "out" for ages and yet according to YouGov's most recent polling, there's record support for staying in.

[merman]

Given slightly over half of our exports go to the EU, having to charge an extra 15-30% for those goods, especially with the Euro on the drop (looking at buying my next guitar from Germany at the moment) coming out of the EU without a preagreed mutual trade agreement seems a shit idea.

And that's the key. UKIP continually argue "it will be better for business being outside the EU." But Norway and Switzerland are like that right now and their businesses face huge overheads & tariffs trading into the EU. Britain would be the same.

[gravy]

I thought Switzerland had free trade with the EU?

[pogo]

The problem is if we left the EU, especially if we left unilaterally in a huff, it might be a very long time before we regained all the freedom of trade and movement that Switzerland enjoys.

If ever. Switzerland uniquely among major countries is surrounded by the EU. It shares languages with the three biggest EU countries that aren’t England. It already had very strong links with its neighbouring countries and had no option but to do deals with the EU to be able to trade and move freely.

The UK is far more detached physically and culturally. On exit many here will be tempted to do deals instead with the US, or try and persuade Ireland to join us in a union of the British Isles. But the US is far too distant, while Ireland would be constrained by its own membership of the EU.

[KlaxonCow]

And, of course, Switzerland is special because of its infamous policy of neutrality.

That's why it can't join the EU, of course. It would breach its ability to remain neutral on the international stage, as the EU does have a foreign policy, gets involved in international matters and so forth.

The EU understands that, and so it's instead afforded a "special relationship" with the EU where it can remain neutral, but not find itself prejudiced for that in European relations (it's handy for other countries sometimes that Switzerland has this policy - it's able, for example, to provide a neutral meeting point for talks and such like - so Swiss neutrality is generally respected like that).

It's a special case. It can't be used as a model for what to expect were the UK to leave the EU.

[Dio]

Big guns of business may say in, but all the right-wing press will shout out. I'm not so sure it's a foregone conclusion.

The right-wing press have been shouting "out" for ages and yet according to YouGov's most recent polling, there's record support for staying in.

I think there is a point there. UKIP has probably been as helpful to the pro-European position as it is to the anti. I'd still be rather wary of getting the wrong result mind.

[(o)(o)]

Lib Dems are regarded as centre-left - (and fucking turncoats after forming the coalition).



Notice how close Tories are to UKIP in the public perception.

Generally the public lean left of the perception presented by our right leaning media bias. The electoral system is not right biased as Pogo says, because if everyone had to vote we'd get a centre/left government no doubt about it. Disenfranchisement of the socially disadvantaged is a very real issue. Let me assure you the biddies and well-to-do are in full force in this safe Tory seat - the demographic of who bothers turning out is self evident at the polling queue.

This is where I think Brand could be a bad influence in terms of voter apathy. Political activism is constructive, sitting at home twiddling your thumbs isn't. At least show your face and spoil your paper.

Voting should be mandatory.

[Mark]

This is where I think Brand could be a bad influence in terms of voter apathy. Political activism is constructive, sitting at home twiddling your thumbs isn't. At least show your face and spoil your paper.

This page tells you how best to register a protest vote - it's not as simple as simply spoiling your paper, you need to make sure it's absolutely clear you're not voting for any of them.

http://www.votenone.org.uk/protest_votes_count.html

[gravy]

Hasn't Brand now come out as a green voter?

[VNVObit]

I thought Switzerland had free trade with the EU?

It does but the [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland–European_Union_relations]treaty also covers[/url]a number of other areas

These negotiations resulted in a total of ten treaties, negotiated in two phases, the sum of which makes a large share of EU law applicable to Switzerland. The treaties are:

Bilateral I
Free movement of people
Air traffic
Road traffic
Agriculture
Technical trade barriers
Public procurement
Science
Bilateral II
Security and asylum and Schengen membership
Cooperation in fraud pursuits
Final stipulations in open questions about agriculture, environment, media, education, care of the elderly, statistics and services.
The Bilateral I agreements are expressed to be mutually dependent. If any one of them is denounced or not renewed, they all cease to apply. According to the preamble of the EU decision ratifying the agreements: