I'm genuinely scared now because of what I've read about it and the fact I live with parents in their late 60s. Could easily carry the plague unknowingly and pass it on to them, and it's not an issue I'd ever thought of before. So I am careful about picking up or spreading it.
But I'd also say it's utterly shameful how much of a panic the media has been whipping up.
Coronavirus Pandemic
-
Absolute_Zero
- Baaaaaa!
- Posts: 3564
- Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 4:11 pm 0
- Location: Hilbert Hotel, Heisenberg.
Re: Coronavirus Pandemic
Reports of panic buying can have only one consequence, more panic buying. Oh, and bums on seats.
The UK strategy is interesting for being slightly counter-intuitive [though you can see the early signs of the plan becoming overwhelmed by the rising panic]. But then banning direct flights from China seemed proactively sensible until the results were considered... people returning home via indirect routes.
The UK strategy is interesting for being slightly counter-intuitive [though you can see the early signs of the plan becoming overwhelmed by the rising panic]. But then banning direct flights from China seemed proactively sensible until the results were considered... people returning home via indirect routes.
Re: Coronavirus Pandemic
One of my preferred news sources :Cloudane wrote:I'm genuinely scared now because of what I've read about it and the fact I live with parents in their late 60s. Could easily carry the plague unknowingly and pass it on to them, and it's not an issue I'd ever thought of before. So I am careful about picking up or spreading it.
But I'd also say it's utterly shameful how much of a panic the media has been whipping up.
https://www.positive.news/
Trippy vibes...
http://soundcloud.com/two-gapper
http://soundcloud.com/two-gapper
Re: Coronavirus Pandemic
Just considering the numbers, in light of the UK's talk of "herd immunity".
Whilst China has had 80K cases, which is an awful lot of people, it's only 0.006% of their 1.3 billion population. South Korea has had 8K cases, but this is just 0.015% of their 51 million population.
And I choose these two because they both report declining numbers now, and their graphs are plateauing.
But here's the thing. There's no way that such fractions of a single percent are anywhere near enough for "herd immunity". Okay, we're talking "confirmed cases", so there could be more unconfirmed cases with "mild symptoms" who weren't recorded but now have immunity and, because it's not reported, we can't actually know what that number might be, but it seems deeply unlikely that it's, like, secretly thousands of times bigger than confirmed cases. Which is the sort of orders of magnitude required to bring those fractions of a percent up to whole numbers - 6% or 15% - which would still not be enough for proper herd immunity.
Total worldwide cases are, rounding up, 160K. But, again, this is only 0.002% of world population.
What I'm detecting is a major incompatibility with the UK's stated policy and the rest of the worldwide response. The UK government's talk of 60% of the population to build up "herd immunity" equates to some 39 million people. Nearly 250 times more than total world cases right now.
Everyone else is following a management / elimination policy. But that's fundamentally incompatible with having one country - which the UK government has self-identified itself as - operating to a "herd immunity" policy instead, and actually wants things to get 250 times worse than the total world situation right now in a single country (!).
The rest of the world will be offered no choice. All of them will have to 100% travel ban all UK citizens indefinitely.
And goodness knows how exactly you could do that with a land border with the Republic of Ireland - a border that we've already long been arguing cannot be closed, due to the Good Friday Agreement and avoiding any potential resumption of the Troubles. You certainly can't have such differing policies existing together on the same island when it has an open border.
This just doesn't add up.
Boris can't maintain a policy that's fundamentally incompatible with the rest of the planet. He literally can't do this - sporting authorities, the entertainment industry, businesses, etc. are defying his plan anyway. He can state that he wants it, but if absolutely no-one carries it out, then he won't get it.
He risks losing Jefferson's "consent of the governed" here.
Edit: Actually, as I was writing this, this article popped up on my phone:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/educ ... 02246.html
So, already, the governed are demanding proper explanation for their consent. It's not quite open defiance yet, but if the response from Boris isn't good enough - and when have Boris's responses to anything been good enough? - then, I mean, could he be risking facing strike action from the teachers' unions in the midst of this? You can insist that schools stay open, but that's kind of pointless if there's no teachers there and parents keep their kids at home.
He really just can't do this. The people themselves will simply not permit it. And if the UK follows this policy, while the rest of the world does otherwise, you'll face much the same thing on an international scale - they'll all just collectively ban us from travelling anywhere at all and seal us off.
Seriously, can we just get rid of that Behavioural Science "nudge" team? They've gotten this all so woefully wrong from top to bottom.
And then can we join the rest of the world in the overall plan to "flatten the curve"? Which, yes, is a longer term plan that'll take longer. And, yes, if elimination is impossible and this one is here to stay as an endemic virus, then it'll unfortunately reemerge from time to time. But the strategy would be to repeatedly bat out the fires and keep it all manageable - for health services, for businesses, for the economy and so forth.
In truth, I think the UK's advice is out-of-date. When the numbers were rising exponentially in China and South Korea, and the "worse case scenario" was that it would never be brought under control, infecting billions, then "herd immunity" is the only light at the end of the tunnel. And I think Boris and co. got obsessed with this notion, while the facts on the ground have changed. China and South Korea have brought it to a manageable plateau (for the time being) at only 0.006% and 0.015% of their total populations. They're running with the "this is impossible to manage!!" panic scenario, while two countries - one of significantly higher population than any other country on Earth, and one of comparable-ish population to the UK - have actually done it (for the time being). They have batted out the fires as they happened. And we have to rapidly join in with everyone else on this policy, as our stated plan is fundamentally incompatible with theirs and they'll have no choice but to cut us off completely to avoid us compromising them, where they are successfully managing to "flatten the curve".
Whilst China has had 80K cases, which is an awful lot of people, it's only 0.006% of their 1.3 billion population. South Korea has had 8K cases, but this is just 0.015% of their 51 million population.
And I choose these two because they both report declining numbers now, and their graphs are plateauing.
But here's the thing. There's no way that such fractions of a single percent are anywhere near enough for "herd immunity". Okay, we're talking "confirmed cases", so there could be more unconfirmed cases with "mild symptoms" who weren't recorded but now have immunity and, because it's not reported, we can't actually know what that number might be, but it seems deeply unlikely that it's, like, secretly thousands of times bigger than confirmed cases. Which is the sort of orders of magnitude required to bring those fractions of a percent up to whole numbers - 6% or 15% - which would still not be enough for proper herd immunity.
Total worldwide cases are, rounding up, 160K. But, again, this is only 0.002% of world population.
What I'm detecting is a major incompatibility with the UK's stated policy and the rest of the worldwide response. The UK government's talk of 60% of the population to build up "herd immunity" equates to some 39 million people. Nearly 250 times more than total world cases right now.
Everyone else is following a management / elimination policy. But that's fundamentally incompatible with having one country - which the UK government has self-identified itself as - operating to a "herd immunity" policy instead, and actually wants things to get 250 times worse than the total world situation right now in a single country (!).
The rest of the world will be offered no choice. All of them will have to 100% travel ban all UK citizens indefinitely.
And goodness knows how exactly you could do that with a land border with the Republic of Ireland - a border that we've already long been arguing cannot be closed, due to the Good Friday Agreement and avoiding any potential resumption of the Troubles. You certainly can't have such differing policies existing together on the same island when it has an open border.
This just doesn't add up.
Boris can't maintain a policy that's fundamentally incompatible with the rest of the planet. He literally can't do this - sporting authorities, the entertainment industry, businesses, etc. are defying his plan anyway. He can state that he wants it, but if absolutely no-one carries it out, then he won't get it.
He risks losing Jefferson's "consent of the governed" here.
Edit: Actually, as I was writing this, this article popped up on my phone:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/educ ... 02246.html
So, already, the governed are demanding proper explanation for their consent. It's not quite open defiance yet, but if the response from Boris isn't good enough - and when have Boris's responses to anything been good enough? - then, I mean, could he be risking facing strike action from the teachers' unions in the midst of this? You can insist that schools stay open, but that's kind of pointless if there's no teachers there and parents keep their kids at home.
He really just can't do this. The people themselves will simply not permit it. And if the UK follows this policy, while the rest of the world does otherwise, you'll face much the same thing on an international scale - they'll all just collectively ban us from travelling anywhere at all and seal us off.
Seriously, can we just get rid of that Behavioural Science "nudge" team? They've gotten this all so woefully wrong from top to bottom.
And then can we join the rest of the world in the overall plan to "flatten the curve"? Which, yes, is a longer term plan that'll take longer. And, yes, if elimination is impossible and this one is here to stay as an endemic virus, then it'll unfortunately reemerge from time to time. But the strategy would be to repeatedly bat out the fires and keep it all manageable - for health services, for businesses, for the economy and so forth.
In truth, I think the UK's advice is out-of-date. When the numbers were rising exponentially in China and South Korea, and the "worse case scenario" was that it would never be brought under control, infecting billions, then "herd immunity" is the only light at the end of the tunnel. And I think Boris and co. got obsessed with this notion, while the facts on the ground have changed. China and South Korea have brought it to a manageable plateau (for the time being) at only 0.006% and 0.015% of their total populations. They're running with the "this is impossible to manage!!" panic scenario, while two countries - one of significantly higher population than any other country on Earth, and one of comparable-ish population to the UK - have actually done it (for the time being). They have batted out the fires as they happened. And we have to rapidly join in with everyone else on this policy, as our stated plan is fundamentally incompatible with theirs and they'll have no choice but to cut us off completely to avoid us compromising them, where they are successfully managing to "flatten the curve".
"Words ought to be a little wild - for they are assaults of thought on the unthinking."
- John Maynard Keynes
- John Maynard Keynes
Re: Coronavirus Pandemic
Oh, and there's this:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 02661.html
Hundreds of scientists have gotten together to publish an open letter to Boris that he's doing it wrong.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 02661.html
Hundreds of scientists have gotten together to publish an open letter to Boris that he's doing it wrong.
"Words ought to be a little wild - for they are assaults of thought on the unthinking."
- John Maynard Keynes
- John Maynard Keynes
Re: Coronavirus Pandemic
Went to a local Aldi today to pick up some stuff for Sunday dinner.
No meat whatsoever (chicken, steak, sausages), no cereals, no coffee, no frozen food (cabinets were empty), no flour, no sugar, no pasta, no pasta sauce, no toilet paper (obviously).
Absolutely crazy...
No meat whatsoever (chicken, steak, sausages), no cereals, no coffee, no frozen food (cabinets were empty), no flour, no sugar, no pasta, no pasta sauce, no toilet paper (obviously).
Absolutely crazy...
Re: Coronavirus Pandemic
Trippy vibes...
http://soundcloud.com/two-gapper
http://soundcloud.com/two-gapper
-
Deckard
- Sheepie Whore
- Posts: 10746
- Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:27 pm 0
- Location: Falmouth, Cornwall, UK
Re: Coronavirus Pandemic
So presumably everyone parents here are over 70 so like mine in the next few weeks will be self isolating for weeks if not months - thank god for FaceTime and the web etc.....
Not so good if you live on your own in a flat with no tech knowhow.Health Secretary Matt Hancock has told Sky News that over-70s will be asked to self-isolate "in the coming weeks" - and it could potentially last for months.
He told the Sophy Ridge on Sunday programme that the growing coronavirus outbreak meant "the elderly and vulnerable" would be asked to "shield themselves by self isolating".
Now with a new Mac Mini Pro so dont judge me !
-
The ghost of raids past
- Baaaaa!
- Posts: 1682
- Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2005 7:38 pm 0
Re: Coronavirus Pandemic
Its not Boris though poilicy is based on the Chief Scientist and Chief Medical officerKlaxonCow wrote:Oh, and there's this:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 02661.html
Hundreds of scientists have gotten together to publish an open letter to Boris that he's doing it wrong.
Re: Coronavirus Pandemic
Well, that's just me personalising the criticism.The ghost of raids past wrote:Its not Boris though poilicy is based on the Chief Scientist and Chief Medical officer
The open letter itself is, of course, addressed to the UK government and UK government policy, which would fully include the Chief Scientist and Chief Medical Officer.
"Words ought to be a little wild - for they are assaults of thought on the unthinking."
- John Maynard Keynes
- John Maynard Keynes
Re: Coronavirus Pandemic
Dr Dominic CummingsThe ghost of raids past wrote:Its not Boris though poilicy is based on the Chief Scientist and Chief Medical officerKlaxonCow wrote:Oh, and there's this:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 02661.html
Hundreds of scientists have gotten together to publish an open letter to Boris that he's doing it wrong.
-
Absolute_Zero
- Baaaaaa!
- Posts: 3564
- Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 4:11 pm 0
- Location: Hilbert Hotel, Heisenberg.
Re: Coronavirus Pandemic
If it were Cummings then the Chief Scientist and Chief Medical officer should be criticised for not resigning.
Playing this for politics... check yourself.
Playing this for politics... check yourself.
Re: Coronavirus Pandemic
It'll be the people who go in to work despite having it mildly who will be the cause of everyone getting it.zip accident wrote:It seems to me that when this thing actually arrives, it'll be the people who do go in to work despite having it mildly, who will be the heros, because if everyone has it, nobody else will be working.
-
gilesgoat
- Sheepie Whore
- Posts: 27258
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:54 am 0
- Location: Monfalcone, Italy
- Contact:
Re: Coronavirus Pandemic
<Dark humour>
@KlaxonCow : .. on the top of all this add a Brexit NO DEAL and you'll have "UK" the new North Korea of Europe .. .. ..
</Dark humour>
@KlaxonCow : .. on the top of all this add a Brexit NO DEAL and you'll have "UK" the new North Korea of Europe .. .. ..
</Dark humour>
Giles the billy goat
"Baa"
"Baa"
Re: Coronavirus Pandemic
So if a company doesn't pay sick pay, why would people self isolate when they have bills to pay?
I know there is statutory sick pay, but probably not enough for some. Banks are going to 'help' by basically postponing payments on mortages and stuff, but people will have to pay eventually and be playing catchup?
I see a large portion of people not even considering any consequences (to the point of not taking much interest at all as it currently doesn't affect them) until it is too late and they are dropped right in it.
I know there is statutory sick pay, but probably not enough for some. Banks are going to 'help' by basically postponing payments on mortages and stuff, but people will have to pay eventually and be playing catchup?
I see a large portion of people not even considering any consequences (to the point of not taking much interest at all as it currently doesn't affect them) until it is too late and they are dropped right in it.