Coronavirus Pandemic

[PFVA]

We seem to be quite isolated on this corner of the peninsula and some ideas haven't reached us. Sometimes that can be an advantage.

There is no 'Freedom Convoy' here. Almost all our truck drivers are vaccinated. When the vaccines were arriving the truck drivers associations asked they would be one of the priority professions because they have to travel all over the country and Europe and they felt a lot more exposed to the virus. They were not on the very first groups but they were inserted at some time during the process. And they were quite happy to have the opportunity to receive the vaccine.

[merman]

Separating the last, which is another thing entirely.

That was pretty much the regime in November / December and that didn't actually appear to slow the virus down much, what changed to let the hospital numbers drop at the moment is simply that the vast majority of people have now had it fairly recently and there are few unvaccinated and uninfected people left to get it seriously. It's not at all obvious it achieved much then, and now we've been through the last wave and most people who're going to get it seriously have already had it, such a limited scheme of measures are the appearance of doing something rather than achieving much.

If Omicron and its new variant are more transmissible, it makes sense to use measures that slow down transmission and prevent deaths/serious illness, yes?

“Only” 46,000 cases today means it’s a long way from over.

And supporting vaccination in other countries reduces the chances of new variants as well as making sure there are less travel problems.

[Dio]

Not really. Firstly, since April last year we've made no significant attempts to slow spread for any other reason than to keep the critical NHS services under capacity. Clearly the requirement for that is trending downwards - because everyone is vaxed or has had it, NHS pressure is dropping. The data shows that we need 100x as many daily cases to keep one person in ICU as we did in 2020 and that number will go up a lot more from here. Secondly, the measures we had in December didn't slow Omicron down in the slightest, so sticking to that level of virus protection is a waste of time, unless such protection is no significant cost or imposition (like wearing masks on public transport). The reason it's slowed - and continued to slow even as everyone takes it less and less seriously - is because half the country has had covid in the last three months and almost everyone has vax or previous infection protection now. If you really want to slow it down, you need to go back to a stronger lockdown. That won't happen and I'm very unsure if it should happen at this point.

And I wouldn't put much stead on 46k cases today. The testing rate has been dropping ballistically for the last couple of weeks - it's half what it was six weeks ago and the rate of decline is getting steeper. I estimate the case rate comparable to previous case rates is closer to 100k, and the actual daily case rate is probably more like 200k.

The reason for vaccinating the rest of the world is to save lives and reduce strain on their health services. Focusing on the benefits to us is selfish BS. We're as likely to evolve a variant here as abroad. (i.e. not very - we failed to evolve one even though somewhere around 25-30 million people likely had covid between November and now).

[Little stoned kiwi]

NZ has a small population but we are vaccinated and unexposed, with the start of an omnicom epidemic. Future lockdowns are already rulled out. People with vaccination passes (including some that are unvaccinated) are free to do a lot of things.
We might be able.to brew up something interesting.

[KlaxonCow]

Secondly, the measures we had in December didn't slow Omicron down in the slightest

What measures were those?

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-wha ... d-12501836

England

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has confirmed no further restrictions will be brought in before Christmas Day [...] Health Secretary Sajid Javid said there will be no announcement on measures after Christmas until 27 December.
[...]
Scotland

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said she will not be changing the advice for Christmas but has urged people to be cautious when mixing with others.

Strict limits have been announced on crowd numbers at football matches, while Hogmanay events have been cancelled as part of new COVID restrictions from Boxing Day.
[...]
Wales

People have been advised to follow "five steps for a safer Christmas", ahead of new restrictions being enforced from 26 December. These include taking a lateral flow test before going shopping and spacing out social events.
[...]
Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland has said it will not change its COVID-19 rules over the festive period.

England and Northern Ireland made no significant rule changes whatsoever. Scotland and Wales brought in some measures on Boxing Day.

So, taking Wales, as it brought in the most restrictions, let's look at the Welsh graph specifically:



Well, look at that. A week after those measures were introduced, the graph drastically changes direction and Wales was the only nation to be measuring R < 1.0 in January, and barring a little "hiccup" in that graph, it's been going steadily downwards since.

There were no measures throughout most of December. No-one dared disrupt the "normal Christmas" we were promised, so where any additional restrictions were brought in, they happened on Boxing Day. And the graphs change direction after Boxing Day.

So you're saying December's "measures" didn't work. But what measures are you talking about?

Wales did the most, and it was - from Boxing Day onwards - banning indoor events with more than 30 people, outdoor events with more than 50 people, closing nightclubs, sporting events needed to be behind closed doors, "the rule of six" for hospitality. And face masks were already required in public spaces - they still are - so that continued.

And, from Boxing Day, that only covers 6 days remaining in the year. And the Welsh graph turned on 2nd January and has kept falling since, and Wales is posting the best R numbers for the UK.

So to say "the measures didn't work!", then you actually need measures to point to. You actually need for the measures to have been brought in - and none were introduced before Boxing Day anywhere in the UK - which can only have an effect from that date onwards (due to the forward nature of time itself).

Being as charitable as I can be, I'd say that there's nothing useful here to base any conclusions on at all. There barely were any measures introduced in December and they only occurred from Boxing Day onwards. And the graph changed direction shortly afterward - with it being most sharp in the nation that took the most measures, being the only one that can claim R < 1.0 afterwards. Although, sure, the restrictions were modest and the difference between nations in graphs was modest, so I won't claim that the Welsh measures conclusively prove that their tougher measures is the only reason why they're in a better position - it's too modest a difference to differentiate from "error" and "natural fluctuation". But I can leave the ball in the court that the nation that did the most happens to be the one posting the best figures - the correlation is there, even if we can't prove it's causally so.

But, to be honest, screw that. What really matters is this:



Because - as indicated by the orange line - what definitely had no effect on Omicron was 5 months of pursuing "hybrid immunity", since "Freedom Day".

The orange line indicates a strategic difference - which you can see in the graph itself thereafter, which then bobs up and down around 40-50K daily cases ever since - where the UK government began actively pursuing a "hybrid immunity" strategy.

We can pointlessly argue over whether cinemas should allow 50 people or 100 people or whatever, but this is just trivia, compared to the fact that the overall strategy of "hybrid immunity" failed miserably in the face of Omicron.

The UK is well-vaccinated. It has, due to previous Boris incompetence, one of the highest "previous infection" rates out there. And "Freedom Day" was a declaration of a strategy of "hybrid immunity" - namely, to jab as many as possible and, for those who refuse the jabs, we'd encourage people to go out there and become naturally infected - and we kept that going for some 5 months.

And Omicron crashed through it all, like it wasn't even there.

Because the fundamental problem with variants is that they can mutate "vaccine escape". They can learn to by-pass our "immunity wall". We could vaccinate and naturally infect everyone, for years... but one mutation can throw it all down the drain.

Cases do matter. Because it's from high cases that variants emerge - every case is a roll of the dice on mutation, and enough dice rolls eventually hits a new "variant of concern", if given the space to evolve.

You can say "the December measures didn't work" but barely any measures were introduced, and none of them before Boxing Day - so Christmas was not really impeded in the UK at all, though many people did voluntarily choose to limit their plans, there was no legal compulsion to do so - and the graphs turned around in the following weeks. So, I don't see how - from the data - you can have any certainty that "the measures didn't work".

Whereas, I'm talking about 5 months of at least 40-50K daily cases, alongside a jab campaign, to get as much "herd immunity" out there as possible. The overall strategy itself. And that equally did absolutely nothing in the face of Omicron.

That, I feel, is way more significant. Particularly as the strategy is now "continue with the strategy that didn't work in the face of Omicron".

What I'm advising is that we break out of the binary cycle of "boom and bust". Freedom!! Oh, shit... quick, lockdown everything!! Okay, now freedom again!! Shit, lockdown everything!!!

But rather keeping some restrictions throughout, with a view to gradually phasing them out, bit by bit, as the numbers - not libertarian ideology - dictate. Which is absolutely NOT some "love for lockdown", but quite the opposite. If we keep things under control, then the NHS can always cope and lockdowns will never be needed again.

The fastest route to freedom is not necessarily a straight line.

(Yes, I know. We called a truce on this. But then you carried on regardless. So if you're breaking the terms of the armistice, then I'm calling that a breach of contract, and so it no longer holds.)

[Dio]

I didn't carry on arguing with you. I was having a conversation with other people. You and I interpret the facts fundamentally differently and it is not reconcilable. I'm not going to stop talking in this thread, but I'm not going to argue with you, there's no point in either of us wasting our time.

I will just reiterate, as it clearly wasn't obvious enough when I stated it before, that I drew the comparison with November / December because the restrictions merman proposed were in line with those that were in place in that time (masks in shops and on public transport, LFTs available to all, PCRs available for free, isolate on positive cases) - not any putative stronger ones - so I was inviting him to demonstrate that those measures did make a significant difference, as from what I can see it's not obvious they did.

[gilesgoat]

I didn't carry on arguing with you. I was having a conversation with other people. You and I interpret the facts fundamentally differently and it is not reconcilable. I'm not going to stop talking in this thread, but I'm not going to argue with you, there's no point in either of us wasting our time.

I will just reiterate, as it clearly wasn't obvious enough when I stated it before, that I drew the comparison with November / December because the restrictions merman proposed were in line with those that were in place in that time (masks in shops and on public transport, LFTs available to all, PCRs available for free, isolate on positive cases) - not any putative stronger ones - so I was inviting him to demonstrate that those measures did make a significant difference, as from what I can see it's not obvious they did.

Well .. just my two cents .. me and Jeff could be "some interesting case at least" .. the way we live and the way we followed all "rules" to a T ( and MORE ) I'd dare to say "more than what we did then you should have closed yourself in an isolation chamber" ..

We use the mask, we used the distance, we almost met no one for almost 1 year in a row, washing hands all time, using disinfectants, wearing mask all places, we live in Wales that is really SPARSELY populated, etc. etc. .. "we done all that possibly could be done" ...

Jeff turned positive with Covid, me too probably, if we ever got "the first wave" we don't know, well I kinda know "probably not" because I travelled to Italy I had FOUR PCR tests in various days in/out/etc. ( cost lot of money ) so I knew "up to a point I was negative" ..

True.dat we did not end up in a hospital or such but "we had bad cold" could have been covid ? Maybe, the second time surely was.

I'd say "probably" all that helped, but certainly "or really overall rules were too lax" or it did not help much with Omicron.

I hope/really want to belive that "what really helped were vaccinations" .. I don't say the other stuff did not help, I am sure it did .. but in the end of the day "even with all the best" we could not fully avoid it.

But yeah I'd still be/am for some restrictions myself too.

Anyway .. even tried all the best .. we still got at least one form of it ..

[snaff]

I didn't carry on arguing with you. I was having a conversation with other people. You and I interpret the facts fundamentally differently and it is not reconcilable. I'm not going to stop talking in this thread, but I'm not going to argue with you, there's no point in either of us wasting our time.

I will just reiterate, as it clearly wasn't obvious enough when I stated it before, that I drew the comparison with November / December because the restrictions merman proposed were in line with those that were in place in that time (masks in shops and on public transport, LFTs available to all, PCRs available for free, isolate on positive cases) - not any putative stronger ones - so I was inviting him to demonstrate that those measures did make a significant difference, as from what I can see it's not obvious they did.

Well .. just my two cents .. me and Jeff could be "some interesting case at least" .. the way we live and the way we followed all "rules" to a T ( and MORE ) I'd dare to say "more than what we did then you should have closed yourself in an isolation chamber" ..

We use the mask, we used the distance, we almost met no one for almost 1 year in a row, washing hands all time, using disinfectants, wearing mask all places, we live in Wales that is really SPARSELY populated, etc. etc. .. "we done all that possibly could be done" ...

Jeff turned positive with Covid, me too probably, if we ever got "the first wave" we don't know, well I kinda know "probably not" because I travelled to Italy I had FOUR PCR tests in various days in/out/etc. ( cost lot of money ) so I knew "up to a point I was negative" ..

True.dat we did not end up in a hospital or such but "we had bad cold" could have been covid ? Maybe, the second time surely was.

I'd say "probably" all that helped, but certainly "or really overall rules were too lax" or it did not help much with Omicron.

I hope/really want to belive that "what really helped were vaccinations" .. I don't say the other stuff did not help, I am sure it did .. but in the end of the day "even with all the best" we could not fully avoid it.

But yeah I'd still be/am for some restrictions myself too.

Anyway .. even tried all the best .. we still got at least one form of it ..

Have you got 5G?

[KlaxonCow]

Have you got 5G?

Oh, come on.

Obvious troll is obvious.

[Cloudane]

I hope and believe you'll be fine Giles and Jeff. Probably a shitty few days and all over. We're all going to get it, just about everyone I know has had it at this point, it'll all be okay. The vaccines are great <3

Best wishes



And yeah to be honest, with it being so ridiculously transmissible now, this is partly why I don't think any ending of restrictions is the end of the world. They do so little that pretty much either you go into the hardest lockdown in the world or it makes very little difference. It'll find everyone this thing. The only reason it's not already is we're all teeming with antibodies still... give it a few months...

[KlaxonCow]

Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

[Dio]

Interesting statistic from yesterday is that 98% of people now have antibodies to the virus. That lines up pretty well with the estimate that it needs around 50x the daily case rate to generate one person in ICU compared to 2020 and may confirm the hypothesis that generally only the unvaxed uninfected are at serious risk.

[PFVA]

Less restrictions here too but masks stay when indoors and in the football stadiums. Vaccine certificate only to get in the country. Tourists only if they are vaccinated. Anti-vaxers will have to vacation somewhere else. Confinement only for people who test positive. Risk contacts will be required to test but if negative won't have to stay confined.

The reason given to still keep the masks is the number of daily deaths.

[KlaxonCow]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... hs-leaders

Free Covid tests and self-isolation rules must continue, say NHS leaders
[...]
More than 300 senior staff in England polled by the NHS Confederation found 79% disagreed or strongly disagreed with the plan to stop free access to Covid-19 tests for the public.
[...]
In the survey, 94% of the 307 NHS leaders polled said testing for health staff and other key workers must also continue.
[...]
The survey also found that more than three-quarters would disagree with any axing of the legal requirement to self-isolate following a positive Covid result in favour of it being advisory only.

Furthermore, more than four in five (82%) would be against ending compulsory mask-wearing in the NHS and care homes.
[...]
“A lot is at stake for the NHS’s recovery ambitions if the government is too gung-ho in its plans for exiting the pandemic, which is why health leaders are calling for a cautious and evidence-led approach. This must not be driven by political expediency.” [Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation]
[...]
Also in the survey, 83% of health leaders said they did not want the weekly Office for National Statistics infection survey to be dropped or scaled back, as has been reported.

But, ah, we're tired of these experts, with their medical knowledge and expertise. Don't they know that Boris Johnson is trying to save his own skin, by courting the crazy "5G" Tory backbenchers who think it's all "a hoax"? How rude of them!

[PFVA]

Slightly unrelated to the topic but having to do with collateral damage fm the pandemic, at least to the planet,
I don't think this discardable things are fully bio-degradable, (and they should not be discarded like that in any way). That was on the side of a windy path and it seemed to have been there for a while including during the rain last weekend. I didn't get close to it, I zoomed in.

By the Trail