iPad

[VNVObit]

I don't see the iPad as an alternative to a laptop for any but those with little need for a laptop.

As a multipurpose ereader/magazine reader/media player/web browser I think it excels but it'll never be a laptop replacement for me (at least I cannot for see it happening anytime soon)

I'm interested in seeing an android tablet but suspect it'll take a which before it catches up in what has been a precursor to the iPhone (if I have read it correctly elsewhere). Apple took their time to release it for a reason so others rushing to replicate the iPad does not fill me confidence they'll get it right first time

As for MS I've only ever seen a handful of the tablet pcs and those I saw didn't impress (felt more of a gimmick then a central purpose).

The archos tablets plummeted in price at currys once the iPad was announced (I was tempted but thankfully they were sold out before I went to buy it)

[noodles]

People are ditching laptops for iPads. That's not happening with the Android tablets.

Quite, but since the truly exciting-looking ones aren't out yet (Notion Ink and other Tegra-based ones) we will have to wait and see.
What the battery life of those are one can only speculate.
If they are able to pull it off near the iPad range (hopefully not far from the 10 hour mark)
then they become a real alternative and more since they will not be closed platforms.
I saw a demo of a Tegra tablet prototype and the display performance is superb, just as good as any iPad.
HP apparently ditched Windows for their Slate and rumours are mentioning them using WebOS
for it. What that can achieve I am impatient to see as well.
I don't think it's unreasonable to see all this happening sometime in 2011.

[juice]

Looking on Ebay, there's several Chinese variations on the tablet theme, generally with 128-256mb of ram and a CPU in the 300mhz range. E.g.
http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/Google-Android-7W ... 2307a0a7b3

I mentioned these, I think.

You did, but somehow I managed to completely miss it!

However, if lots of cheap Android devices have access to a online application store which isn't subject to Apple's whims, then there's potential for a significant niche to evolve outside the Apple ecosystem...

However, what's actually happened is that lots of cheap Android devices have come out that don't have access to an online application store, and even if you hack them to be able to do so half the applications crash or fail to work properly.

No, I'm not impressed by Android.

People are ditching laptops for iPads. That's not happening with the Android tablets.

To be fair, there is a fairly major reason for this: the Android tablets aren't available in the UK. If they were available over here and managed to retain the cost saving (roughly 1/8th of the cost of the iPad), then I suspect they'd take a reasonable chunk of the low end of the market.

I'll freely admit that the current android tablets are pants (possibly excluding the Dell Slate, which I briefly saw in the flesh this weekend) but the key is that they have the potential to evolve quickly - far more so than the iPad. If one of the variations in the next iteration (or the one thereafter) can hook up to the Android store and can offer better build quality, there's a chance for a scenario similar to the Apple Mac/Windows 3.1 era...

It's far from guaranteed, but there is a possibility...

[Firefox]

That may have been true, but there's something new in town now: Android (which admittedly, is Linux underneath, but...). Looking on Ebay, there's several Chinese variations on the tablet theme, generally with 128-256mb of ram and a CPU in the 300mhz range. E.g.
http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/Google-Android-7W ... 2307a0a7b3

The build quality probably isn't great, the battery life is probably measurable in minutes, the processor is underpowered and the OS is likely to be completely unsupported. However, for just £80 (inc. delivery), you get wifi, an 8GB SDHC card, a 7" wide-screen, 800*480 touchscreen and (presumably) the ability to download apps from the Android store.

It says 1.5 hours battery life...

But for eighty quid, I'm very tempted to get one just to tinker with and keep on my desk at work as a calculator/news ticker/whatever.

[Misfit]

But for eighty quid, I'm very tempted to get one just to tinker with and keep on my desk at work as a calculator/news ticker/whatever.

For £100 you can have my Archos 5 Android, delivered by Wednesday...

Not underpowered and with a good build quality and battery life.

[tufty]

To be fair, there is a fairly major reason for this: the Android tablets aren't available in the UK. If they were available over here and managed to retain the cost saving (roughly 1/8th of the cost of the iPad), then I suspect they'd take a reasonable chunk of the low end of the market.

I'm in agreement with this, and as there are major manufacturers entering this field (Archos' 7HT for example, ships mid-june in the UK priced at 129/179 quid, is comparable to the "higher end" chinese devices, and backed by a known brand) they *will* pick up the lower end of the market. However, given the heavy restrictions on what you can and can't do with them, I can't see them being a game-changer in the way that the iPad is; I see the lower end of the market being dominated by devices that are, not to fine a point on it, "crap".

The more ambitious and featureful tablets, which either aren't out yet (Notion Ink Adam, Zenithink, Foxconn, Viliv X10, etc), or are out but hideously overpriced for what they are (Dell's streak, for example, is a cool £429 unless you pick it up with a contract - this is the same price as a base model iPad, but with a quarter of the screen). If you're looking at plonking down the same amount of money as an iPad, I strongly suspect a lot of people are going to plonk it down on an iPad instead. This has nothing particularly to do with quality, although the iPad is very well built, or specs / capabilities (Viliv's X10 has been announced with a much higher resolution screen than the iPad, for example), and everything to do with the fact that Apple currently own the market.

Android has to be better than iPhone OS to beat Apple. Not just a bit better, but massively, obviously, better. And that's where it's falling down, to my eyes - like other open source projects before it (OpenOffice looks and behaves like MS Office, Gnome behaves quite a lot like OSX, KDE looks quite a lo like Windows, etc) it's trying to be the same. They're not leading the market, they are chasing the leader.

they have the potential to evolve quickly - far more so than the iPad. If one of the variations in the next iteration (or the one thereafter) can hook up to the Android store and can offer better build quality, there's a chance for a scenario similar to the Apple Mac/Windows 3.1 era...

Sure, they can evolve quickly. But without controlling that evolution, all that will happen is more and more fragmentation in the Android installed base, more and more confusion, more and more incompatibility, more and more (user) tears before bedtime. Even the bigger manufacturers are liable to be slow in providing updates to the latest and greatest version of Android, especially as most of them are beholden to the chip / mobo manufacturers for hardware support in kernel builds; those manufacturers are not keen on having people diddling about making kernel builds on out of date hardware. So unless there's a biggish hacking community and a bunch of specs out there (or manufacturers "doing the right thing" with the GPL), you're probably gonna be SOL for low-level updates. As for the generic chinese tablets, well, forgive me while I laugh. If rapid evolution means chucking down 500 quid for a new tablet every year to stay on top of the game, well - fuck that noise.

Apple, on the other hand, have shown that they support older hardware and software pretty well (modulo the odd "Steving" here and there) - buy an iPad now and you can be sure of it being supported in the near future. They have a big team of devs working on iPhone OS, probably more than people like, for example, Rockchip, have working on processor design. I would be willing to bet Apple can get fully tested OS updates out for old hardware faster than Rockchip can get out a new Android kernel build for their current processor.

The Apple / Win thing happened largely because Apple's hardware was massively expensive WRT the PC clones, and Windows ran on hardware people already had in their offices. To get MacOS, you had to go buy a Mac. To get Windows, you went and bought (or, more often, copied) a set of Windows install disks and slapped them into the office machine that was already running - ummm - whatever it was that we ran back in those days. 3270 terminal emulators in my case. The tablet game has a much more level playing field. Any price differential seen by the user is based on hardware costs and how low you're willing to set your margins. Android is free. For Apple, iPhone OS is free. Apple can keep their margins high whilst hitting the same price point as the competition because they control the entire process, from chip fab up. There will be very little competition based on pricing, at least at the iPad price-point. It will *all* be down to hardware specs and operating system. And hype.

Guess who's really good at hype?

[Misfit]

Great post tufty!

The fragmentation/support of multiple devices is certainly a big part of the problem.

I also think another big part is, in general, people don't care about Android being open and Apple's devices being closed. It makes great headlines for the media, and sure the technical people you find in places like this, and the vocal bunch on the internet care a lot and the things they want to do with their tablets goes way beyond what average joe wants. But they don't represent the majority who are needed for a device to succeed.

They want a nice interface, in a nice package with easy access to lots of apps.

Android just isn't as pretty (as emphasised by HTC etc al all adding their own glossy layer on top) and not as slick despite what it can do.

Apple still need to prove they can fight against tablets that handle flash, but the longer it takes for the competition to do it well, the more chance there is that sites will have started using html 5, at least for it's embedded media which is where it really counts. I don't buy the flash games argument.

They also need to sort multi-tasking. But that is surely going to be sorted with OS4 very soon?

iPads are expensive, but the first serious big name competitor is showing it's expensive too, so price might not be the factor we thought it was going to be. The Streak is also launching with only a 5" screen, a size I really like, but you have to think a lot of people are going to say that's too big to be a phone and too small to be a comfortable browsing device. I think it will also be perceived as too expensive just due to the screen size being smaller than the iPads...

[Misfit]

I don't see the iPad as an alternative to a laptop for any but those with little need for a laptop.

For sure. But it has completely replaced the netbook we have.

An update on a few things...

A1 perfect browser - The doesn't crash is a lie. It crash 3 times on me whilst I was trying to use it to open background tabs on imdb whilst using newzbin. Wanted to throw my iPad at the wall but switched browser instead. Safari is a bit clunky with it's tabs, but at least it works! Wouldn't touch any non Apple browser without jailbreaking so it can be set to work in the background.

Stand - I got this one, delivered next day. Obviously miss-priced as now £16.99. Really excellent for £10. At that price might have paid another £10 for the A-Frame. Solid, well built and does the job. But obviously doesn't hide the charge cable like an A-frame will in portrait.

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/DESK-STAND-APPLE- ... 137wt_1062

Also got a £5 skin from the same company (+ screen protector in the price I doubt I'll use). Actually not bad. Makes me wonder if I'll go that way with my neoprene slip case or with the Apple case that has just been despatched.

Pulse Newsreader - Really nice. But hardly any of my sources feed in pictures, which means it's not as cool as it could be.

LilRacerz - Top down racing game, currently for the iPhone. Works better on the iPad and surprisingly looks lovely pixel doubled. Well worth the $99 cents. Think there is a lite version too, so give it a try if you like top down racers.

[tufty]

iPads are expensive, but the first serious big name competitor is showing it's expensive too, so price might not be the factor we thought it was going to be.

I don't think price will ever be that much of a factor. Prices will come down, but that's going to be driven by manufacturing costs of the parts themselves coming down, particularly LCD panels and capacitative touchscreens. There's some margin to be had on casings, and the chinese tablets are starting to use "standard" cases (which, incidentally, makes it a bugger to differentiate between the cheap chinese clones and increases the chances of getting ripped off on eBay, but I digress). Despite being a hardware company who have a reputation for being "expensive", I strongly doubt they are pushing their margins on the hardware itself too high; I doubt the other manufacturers in the same market will manage to cut much off without seriously compromising build quality or performance WRT the iPad.

Despite being an unrepentant macwanker, the iPad isn't for me. It's too big (I'd prefer a 7" screen), mainly, and the day Newton emulation hits the AppStore will be a cold one in hell. But I doubt I'm really the market Apple are targetting anyway. None of which has anything to do with the fact I'm staying well away from the Apple resellers around here - I *know* that if I walk in the door the credit card is going to take a big hit.

I'm actually waiting for a 7" tablet with decent build quality / hardware specs and the ability to run a stock linux kernel. At a price under 200€.

[Misfit]

I'm actually waiting for a 7" tablet with decent build quality / hardware specs and the ability to run a stock linux kernel. At a price under 200€.

Sitting on my desk is an O2 Jogger that O2 have managed to sell for £50 delivered. It's has a lovely 7" capacitive touch screen and has already been hacked to run a stock linux build.

Obviously that isn't your answer (for a start it's not portable). But it does show that the price/expectation has to be possible in the not too distant future.

[Deckard]

Just charged my iPad for the first time in 5 days Hopefully they might improve the battery life in the new iPhone launched later today as well.

[Misfit]

Dell Streak is available to buy at £399 now, not the expected £429 or free on data tariffs from £25 per month for two years...

http://www.o2.co.uk/dellstreak

Good review here. Didn't realise it was still Android 1.6, so no flash.

http://www.engadget.com/2010/06/06/dell-streak-review/

However they still think it's a phone...

Wrap-up

So, let's go back to the question that the whole world's been asking: what is the Dell Streak? In our humble opinion, it's most certainly a smartphone. A large and sexy smartphone that still fits in a pocket. Sure, a five-inch phone may not be everyone's cup of tea, but with devices starting to join the 4.3-inch party, consumers will undoubtedly be considering devices with more screen real estate -- the Google Maps screen comparison above probably says it all. We applaud Dell for taking one step ahead and going for the pocketable size limit, and the company's definitely earned its worldwide attention. The work isn't finished yet, obviously -- on top of the bugs list we've compiled, many potential buyers are holding back due to the aging Android 1.6 OS. Don't get us wrong, though, as the Streak's running like a well-oiled motor as it is, but we're hoping to get some sweet Flash action on that stunning screen as well. Rumor has it that O2's already road-testing a 2.x upgrade for next month, so let's keep our fingers crossed there'll be some Froyo in that cupboard.

I'm sure it's great, but for once I'm not actually tempted!

[juice]

The Apple / Win thing happened largely because Apple's hardware was massively expensive WRT the PC clones, and Windows ran on hardware people already had in their offices. To get MacOS, you had to go buy a Mac. To get Windows, you went and bought (or, more often, copied) a set of Windows install disks and slapped them into the office machine that was already running - ummm - whatever it was that we ran back in those days. 3270 terminal emulators in my case. The tablet game has a much more level playing field. Any price differential seen by the user is based on hardware costs and how low you're willing to set your margins. Android is free. For Apple, iPhone OS is free. Apple can keep their margins high whilst hitting the same price point as the competition because they control the entire process, from chip fab up. There will be very little competition based on pricing, at least at the iPad price-point. It will *all* be down to hardware specs and operating system. And hype.

Guess who's really good at hype?

I certainly won't argue on the hype front, but the rest is a bit more open for debate

Apple hardware massively expensive as compared to PC clones: iPad: £439. iClone: £80 inc. delivery. Things like the Dell Streak are closer to the iPad cost, but OTOH, I'd expect Dell to be marketing the Streak with very high margins and the price will likely drop significantly once competition hots up. As with the Joggler (which is admittedly more of a fire-sale than anything else): was £150, now £50...
Windows running on available hardware: it's not a direct parallel, but Android is freely "copyable" across the iClones, whereas the iOS can only be installed on iDevices
Android OS cost vs iPhone OS cost: Google shoulders the cost of developing Android: the iClone manufacturers don't pay a penny. Apple has to cover the cost of developing iPhone OS
Apple margins vs iClone margins: the iClones use off-the-shelf components, bought in bulk (inc. Android): Apple uses a custom OS, built on custom hardware, to higher build/quality standards. I'd therefore expect Apple to have much higher design/production costs, even before you throw in the infamous Apple tax on top.

All told, I'm sticking with my "Windows vs Mac" parallel - though I'd say that we're currently at the Windows 1.0 stage on the Android side. Give it six months, and market forces will be giving us something closer to Windows 3.11: better build quality, higher specs and Android App Store access (and probably with a higher cost, though I'd expect them to still be under £150). They still won't offer the same level of quality as the iPad, but they'll provide a similar level of functionality.

In any case, I think we're pretty much agreeing that the iClones will take up the low end of the market: the main question is how big will the low end be and will it actually threaten Apple?

For me, it's not mega likely: as with Nintendo's Wii, Apple's iPad has effectively stepped sideways into a new market sector, rather than trying to compete in the existing netbook/computing arena. And as with Nintendo, Apple will continue to dominate thanks to a combination of brand awareness and hype.

Unlike the Wii however (which is still effectively at 100% domination of the "casual" market), what I think we'll end up with is going to be closer to the car industry. The iPad can be equated to something like the BMW series 3: a high-end, high-quality, mass-produced model. The iClones are more like the generic boxes-on-wheels thrown together by Peugeot, Ford, Vauxhall, etc: lower quality, lower cost vehicles making heavy use of standardised components and licenced designs. People may want the BMW, but most will opt for the box-on-wheels...

[juice]

Dell Streak is available to buy at £399 now, not the expected £429 or free on data tariffs from £25 per month for two years...

http://www.engadget.com/2010/06/06/dell-streak-review/

However they still think it's a phone...

I'm sure it's great, but for once I'm not actually tempted!

Yeah: the carphone warehouse shops in Meadowhall had the Streak on display. It's physically a bit bigger than my old Nokia N800 (still the greatest eBook reader I've found) and looks very nice and high-tek. However, it also looks more fragile and I'm struggling to figure out what niche it would occupy: it's too big to be comfortably held one-handed and too small for two-handed use. It's also a too big to be a drop-in-pocket device and too small for casual media consumption...

[Cloudane]

Apple hardware massively expensive as compared to PC clones: iPad: £439. iClone: £80 inc. delivery.

I've yet to see one of these cheaper devices actually be as good.

Does the iClone have multi-touch?
Patent based exclusivity (or the legal costs required to ignore it in the case of HTC/Google) = high costs, combined with the build quality which I've rarely if ever seen any clone match.