Elite on Kickstarter...

[Mqark]

Just looking at this today - 52% funded and only 30 days or so left... That's quite a big ask.

Even presuming that there's a big spurt at the end, I'm not sure they can make the target. Did they set their target to high?

[Flojomojo]

There could always be some angels waiting in the wings to put it over the top at the end.

This tracking site is reasonably good at forecasting trends. Their contribution rate has been slow, but steady.

http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/146141 ... dangerous/

[venusian]

That site specifically says it's not forecasting rather it's just extrapolating. It particularly it doesn't attempt to shape the graph according to past trends for similar kickstarts so a late surge wouldn't be included. Its current projection is less over-the-target than it previously has been, IIRC.

[Darkflame]

Come on..scooping up resources from gas giants! just slap that in a short vid and I am sure they will get more sci-fi fans attention.

[Flojomojo]

That site specifically says it's not forecasting rather it's just extrapolating. It particularly it doesn't attempt to shape the graph according to past trends for similar kickstarts so a late surge wouldn't be included. Its current projection is less over-the-target than it previously has been, IIRC.

It's not a projection either, but I think it is interesting to see the trend line nevertheless. We won't know the truth until the campaign is over.

Some have suggested that Braben will use the non-performance of a Kickstart to show that there is not sufficient demand for this. I wonder.

[tufty]

a big spurt at the end

[Ratsoap]

So they are quite clearly making the game, what happens if the KS fails? Do they just leave out £1.2m worth of content, or what?

[pogo]

I would think they will get the money from somewhere else, and rather than having a large number of pledges to fulfil they have a bank or investors who will be wanting a share of profits or a stake in the business. That's probably the easier option anyway, if it's a good, solid project. Raise the money traditionally and you can plan how much you'll get in advance and decide for yourself when and how it will be spent. In this case I think Kickstarter was as much about building enthusiasm as early buzz for the product as raising money.

[gilesgoat]

I would think they will get the money from somewhere else, and rather than having a large number of pledges to fulfil they have a bank or investors who will be wanting a share of profits or a stake in the business. That's probably the easier option anyway, if it's a good, solid project. Raise the money traditionally and you can plan how much you'll get in advance and decide for yourself when and how it will be spent. In this case I think Kickstarter was as much about building enthusiasm as early buzz for the product as raising money.

It would seem to me a quite .. unusual .. strategy to say "ok let's put up a KS and then when/if it fails we can find other
investors showing 'But look how much buzz it generated' " ..

Humm .. not very convinced that is the idea.

[Darkflame]

I'm not even seeing much buzz for it :-/

So they are quite clearly making the game, what happens if the KS fails? Do they just leave out £1.2m worth of content, or what?

It goes on the back-burner while they more sequels to Kinectimals and LostWinds.

They need money to pay their staff after all, putting resources to a big unfunded project is suicide.

Of course, the flipside of this is the longer something is on the backburner the less valuable the assets you have made actually are. I guess procedural tech is more future proof, but still, there will kinda be a half-life to what they have made.

[Little stoned kiwi]

Humm .. not very convinced that is the idea.

No, the idea is to get a successful Kickstart.
But if a failed Kickstart doesn't necessarily mean a failed project. It just means they aren't going to get money the easy way.

[Jamesac]

What's all this speculation about? It's got a month left to make less than 50% of its goal. It's not a done deal right this very minute but odds of failure are slim. Elite keeps adding a percentage point of two per day, and there's the final week bump to take into consideration as well. Elite Dangerous is a thing that's going to happen.

James

[pogo]

Go here

http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/146141 ... dangerous/

and click on 'Projection' and things don't look good. The project like most benefitted from an initial burst of interest which has levelled off, so on current trends it won't meet it's goals. You have to think it's captured all the easy to capture interest, especially as it's not been short of press coverage: there's unlikely to be a late run of interest from people stumbling on it, particularly over Christmas. As a snapshot compare the 'Pledges Per Day To Succeed' and 'Today's Pledge Total' in the following to see how much they have to do.

[Jamesac]

But that's not how Kickstarter works. They don't take the classic bump in donations that updates and the end of the Kickstarter bring in. We've seen this pattern a million times (or at least a couple dozen) where the project pokes along at a leisurely pace, then surges at the end. There's no reason to think this is an exception. I know what this project has done, and the slow pace of donations is normal. Basically, while not impressive numbers, it's doing fine for this stage of its life.

James

[Flojomojo]

Like when you post a 7-day eBay auction and it just sits there for the 5 days in the middle. The edges are what matters. I wonder why they chose to run it so long? Because of the free publicity?