Politics Thread!

[Dio]

Sins of the father, eh?

In my mind people are allowed to be their own person.

[seibu]

In my opinion, the problem for the right is that they are unfamiliar with Ed's personality type. Traditional smearing tactics are risky, since they acknowledge his worthiness as a target, contradicting their previous stance of belittling and ignoring him.

Accordingly, Labour poll lead now up to 10 points:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8193

[Mayhem]

And it's worth noting that this story was very much led by their website - which is the number 3 press website in the UK behind the BBC and Guardian and has a much wider demographic than the newspaper (or, indeed, the Guardian site).

It's actually the most read news website in the world, in terms of individual users browsing per month, about 48M at last standing so I've been told. Apparently a LOT of Americans read it as well...

[gravy]

And of course the timing couldn't be much worse, bang in the middle of conference season when he'd much rather be talking about his policies or criticising those of the government. Instead what most people will remember about Miliband is that his father was a Marxist and that he's easily upset by tabloid headlines.

Accordingly, Labour poll lead now up to 10 points:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8193

Brilliant Political analysis may not be you strongest point pogo

[Portland]

I wouldn't be buying new carpet for number ten if I was him.

Another 5 years of current coalition is my money at the moment. Would be better off having a generous majority in a functioning coalition than to be at the mercy of crazed backbenchers in a situation where there's a paper thin majority.

[Dio]

I wouldn't be buying new carpet for number ten if I was him.

Another 5 years of current coalition is my money at the moment. Would be better off having a generous majority in a functioning coalition than to be at the mercy of crazed backbenchers in a situation where there's a paper thin majority.

I dunno. As John Pienaar pointed out this week on Radio 5, at the moment it's hard to believe Cameron will do better than the last election, and any worse and the coalition changes colour at least.

But if there is a real economic upswing in the next 18 months it's far from out of the question.

[Portland]

Problem is, the media are interested in doom and gloom stories about the economy to get audience share, clicks or papers sold. Beeb aren't as bad as the rest, but are still guilty of it to a degree.

It's noticable there's even a reluctance to be possie in case they're wrong. Trouble is, this acts like a run on a bank and contributes to the problem. Did you see the major coverage over the fact that there actually wasn't a double dip recession (prelim figures were out) but the emphasis was on that the shit was deeper back in 2007.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23079082

Things aren't going to magically bounce back, there's still a fucking huge debt hangover from the dour Scot, and with the rest of the world still struggling here and there, we do have to have markets to flog stuff to. Having said this, things are going pretty well.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-1 ... -2007.html


One last thing to throw in the mix - it's highly unlikely the Scots will vote to go indy, unless they just get wowed by Salmond rather than looking at what will actually happen, but if so...

Makeup of current Scottish MPs 41 labour, 11 LD, 6 SNP, 1 Tory

[venusian]

I dunno. As John Pienaar pointed out this week on Radio 5, at the moment it's hard to believe Cameron will do better than the last election

Not sure about that. We've had, probably since the middle of Major's terms, a determined centrism by all the major parties but we might be seeing that coming to an end. There's union-entangled Ed on one side advocating price controls and on the other there's Osbourne and Cameron dismantling what remains of state owned services and "revisiting" what social security means.

If, for the first time in 20 years, there's actually some ideological and practical difference between the big two then it's hard to say which way the popular vote will swing. As you said, an economic upswing could well put O&C back in with a sizable majority. More cutbacks without a recovery to ease the pain will make Ed's jam today policies seem more attractive.

[seibu]

I think there probably will be significant improvement in the economy by 2015. I also think that as the election approaches, the Tories will throw in the usual tax cuts & sweeteners. I also think the anti-Ed media (i.e. 99% of the media) will reach fever pitch.

If I had to guess, I would guess it'll be a bitter, divided campaign with real ideological difference between the parties. I don't think Ed's winning is a foregone conclusion by any means, but I also think it's laughable to call a man who currently enjoys a ten point poll lead "unelectable".

[TFO]

I also think the anti-Ed media (i.e. 99% of the media) will reach fever pitch.

Much will depend on whom The Sun back. If they lurch back to the left, the Tories have probably had it

[venusian]

I also think the anti-Ed media (i.e. 99% of the media) will reach fever pitch.

Much will depend on whom The Sun back.

Bollocks does it. It's The Sun that claims The Sun won it. More sober minds might suggest that newspapers are in search not of truth but only of readers and will lurch to the left or march to the right in response to where its audience goes, not ahead of it.

[TFO]

Hmmm. I dunno.
Even things as simple as if the weather is nice on voting day have been shown to influence voters.
Remember the Kinnock evil eyes thing that The Sun did just before that election? Up to that point Labour were expected to win.

You can't underestimate the stupidity of the average voter - who neither understands nor cares about the implications of their vote. And politicians throughout history have known this. All you need is something gently nudging the average voter a little bit your way, and you're as good as in.
Unless you have a deeply uncharismatic leader - I have a friend who works for the Labour Party PR machine and they knew they were going to lose the last election, not because the Tories were any good, but because of the way Gordon Brown was perceived by pretty much everyone

[merman]

Cameron's attempts to portray Milliband's policies as quick fixes were pathetic - shall we list all the Coalition's U-turns, policy reviews and changes to show how badly thought out they were?

And if the NHS is safe in his hands, why are GPs facing a £400m budget cut (7% in real terms)? Why is Cameron pushing for longer GP opening hours when they dropped Labour's exact same policy, cancelling trial schemes in several areas and against the evidence that shows it has little effect on A&E admissions?

[merman]

Oh, and Cameron's land of opportunity is obviously for the rich married businessmen who get tax breaks, Government contracts and cheap labour (now that the Tories are scrapping as much employment law as they can) before taking their profits overseas. You know, the ones who are going to be Tory donors and lobby mercilessly for what they want, while charities and pressure groups fighting for the rest of us are prevented from spending money to promote their cause.

It's definitely not for the young, the disabled or the elderly.

[pogo]

Oh, and Cameron's land of opportunity is obviously for the rich married businessmen who get tax breaks,

Presumably you're referring to the tax break for married couples. How is that for the rich when it's a fixed amount? The richer you are the smaller the tax break is relative to the size of your tax contribution. Oh, and neither partner can be a higher tax rate payer. So the rich get nothing at all from it.

Frankly it won't achieve anything. People are going to get married anyway, a £200 bribe won't make any difference. If you think of it in financial terms a marriage is worth many times that. But it is a distinctive policy, not as nonsensical as their house purchase subsidy or Labour's energy freeze. They should come up with more of them, the better to give voters a real choice come 2015.