gumboot wrote:
The 30% - 50% figure comes from the 'Treatment' page on NHS, by the way. Didn't think to look there right away.
Simple maths tells you it will dwindle to nothing, however, that's still significantly higher probability than the zero he referred to. Thought i had linked it properly, sorry about that.
gumboot wrote:
That's kind of loaded, isn't it? You're over-stretching an analogy, and I think the principle here is that Dawkins claimed that he said what he said in-context, and the nature of the network meant it was read out-of-context. I don't know how twitter works, and maybe Dawkins doesn't either (or maybe he does!), but it seems to me a reasonable assumption that when you are involved in a discussion which isn't explicitly private then it would be quite rude to onlookers (those with context) to shut them out because of the use of the A word. There must be some way in which you can speak openly but in-context.
he has over million followers on twitter that means they see all his posts even if he put his account on followers only. I would be surprised if he was not aware of this given his previous tweeting regarding muslim nobel prize winners. I would have been a bit more sympathetic to his position if he didn't already have form
for stirring things up
gumboot wrote:
The long form is implicit whenever somebody ventures an opinion expressed in the short form. If you insist on reading it otherwise you're going to have a very stressful life. It's just a little part of understanding speech patterns which seems ever more difficult to come by on the internet.
They are 2 different opinions entirely so the long form is not implicit in the short form. If it was implicit there would have been no need for the clarification. The reality is
gumboot wrote:
Why would he do that, I wonder!
The decision is usually made before taking the tests not after (that would be solely confirmation) so
gumboot wrote:
Maybe you need to buy his book to find out.
being a parent I already am aware that having children it's not just a logical decision process there is some emotion involved and personal views/attitudes are changed by the event.
Yes we were faced with the question of having the test or not and it's at that point that people are counselled about the options and what risks are associated with the tests (small chances yes but if you are parents late in life would you have the same opportunity to try again
gumboot wrote:
You definitely need to read his book. Or you could just google "
The Great Beethoven Fallacy" and try to infer what he might be saying, but I fear that might not be reliable.
Also, the first hit is rationalwiki, and they're a pack of witless shitheads (so it's unsurprising that they'd be the first hit for a Dawkinsism), but I suppose they probably relay it just fine.
I'm no fan of Dawkins, but he said what he said pretty clearly in 140 characters. He was referring to a situation where you were faced with the choice of aborting and trying to make a healthy baby, or pressing ahead with a Down's baby. He couldn't possibly be referring to those who didn't take the test. He couldn't possibly be referring to those who'd already had a Down's baby. Just a shade of extrapolation would lead you to also exclude those who were fearful that they couldn't have another baby if they tried and those who "just couldn't". Knowledge of Dawkins' background would suggest that he probably considers the Down's foetus and the subsequent healthy foetus to be altogether equivalent except for their life prospects (no questions of distinct immortal souls, I am sure). And basic common sense puts an implicit "IMHO" on the front of it all.
And in case you didn't get it he's gone to some effort to explain, even citing vast elaborations on the subject, just what the difference is between condemning a choice made by those who were able to make that choice, and accepting the unfortunate outcome for those who did not have the choice. How you interpret "choice" is probably the most dangerously ambiguous matter, here, but you'll be digging through philosophical debate on "free will" for the rest of your life before you can get to a point of being able to judge somebody else's interpretation.
wasn't getting into the spiritual on this at all and I do understand the Beethoven Fallacy
I also understand leading arguments (aka preaching) and from the tone it'd be IMO (definitely no H)
If as you say I should look only at the long form of his argument it follows that bringing a DS child into the world is a negative on the whole "sum of happiness and reduce suffering" equation. If it's true for those who have the test then it is also true for those who didn't have the test, albeit their "sin" (sorry couldn't think of a better word) is not taking the test.