Politics Thread!

[pogo]

Surprised no-one posted about the unemployment. It’s all good news but it’s worth highlighting a couple of features.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_393554.pdf

First the % of people in work, the employment rate, is at an all time high; it's not a new record but it just matched the previous record (set in 2005). This is in some ways a more meaningful statistic than the unemployment rate which can be affected by the number looking for work; the employment rate though is just jobs ÷ workers (the number of people working has been a record for a while, but that’s partly down to the growing population. this just confirms it was not just due to demographics).

Second wage growth is has taken a definite turn upwards. This is while inflation is falling, due to falling oil and food prices. Maybe two or three years ago low inflation would have let employers freeze pay or offer only rises in line with inflation. Not any more with the labour market tighter and tighter.

This contradicts some of the gloom and doom predictions on the left, that cuts (and there have been real cuts and job losses) would massively boost unemployment and harm the economy, and on the right that mass immigration would take jobs from natives also boosting unemployment. Neither has happened; instead the economy has been steadily improving since the recession. Things are improving so fast I’d not be surprised to see interest rates rise this year, though that probably depends where the unemployment rate stops as it can’t keep falling forever.

[pogo]

Surprised no-one posted about the unemployment. It’s all good news but it’s worth highlighting a couple of features.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_393554.pdf

First the % of people in work, the employment rate, is at an all time high; it's not a new record but it just matched the previous record (set in 2005). This is in some ways a more meaningful statistic than the unemployment rate which can be affected by the number looking for work; the employment rate though is just jobs ÷ workers (the number of people working has been a record for a while, but that’s partly down to the growing population. this just confirms it was not just due to demographics).

Second wage growth is has taken a definite turn upwards. This is while inflation is falling, due to falling oil and food prices. Maybe two or three years ago low inflation would have let employers freeze pay or offer only rises in line with inflation. Not any more with the labour market tighter and tighter.

This contradicts some of the gloom and doom predictions on the left, that cuts (and there have been real cuts and job losses) would massively boost unemployment and harm the economy, and on the right that mass immigration would take jobs from natives also boosting unemployment. Neither has happened; instead the economy has been steadily improving since the recession. Things are improving so fast I’d not be surprised to see interest rates rise this year, though that probably depends where the unemployment rate stops as it can’t keep falling forever.

[gilesgoat]

Besides some days I am checking the BBC news site ( I check it every day ) I am surprised there's not even a word ( there was a little mention ) about what's going in Italy with Syria and ISIS ..

Basically ISIS is threatening Italy in an "unusual way" .. instead of bombing or stuff like that they have a new strategy .. that is probably even more expensive ( to fix ) and damaging than what one or a couple of bombs would do .. what they already done - with success - is like "stop bothering us/send us money or we'll send you lot of boats with lot of immigrants !".

And this is precisely what they do, they stufff away people on boats by the thousands and "send" them to Italy, got to the "absurdity point" where "Italy can NOT send them back as if they are going back they are going to be killed", on the top of that it seems also that Italian forces on rescue missions are not allowed to use weapons, we had the case where some people sent a boat with 400 or so immigrants on and kept the Italian coast guard at gunpoint, told them to get all the immigrants AND WANTED ( AND GOT ) THE BOAT BACK SO THEY CAN SEND US MORE !

The coast guard "had to comply" simply because "they had the guns and we did not and they were telling us give us back the boat or we are going to shoot you" .. and so they did.

Italy has already closed the embassy in Syria, told all Italian people NOT TO GO in Syria and is "removing people out of Syria" the parliament and all still has not really a clue about what to do how to proceed further.

I don't know if you heard any of all this but one thing I can tell you .. "expect in a way or another" probably, quite a number of those immigrants with more or less illegal/legal way try to enter UK or such .. it's .. "beyond containable capabilities" ..

I really puzzled there's not a line of all this on the BBC site ... maybe I have to wait until their start to get into UK before they'll publish something about ?

It's really crazy and no one seems to really know what to do or what they can do.

[edit] - there's a fuckload about all this shit here in this thread of articles, maybe you can use some Google translate :

http://www.repubblica.it/argomenti/libia

It seems they are asking UN what to do and UN is refusing to allow to use "radical solutions" .. so blame UN in case

[edit2] - sorry confused, not Syria, Lybia

[PFVA]

From what they say there Lybia is basically in a civil war, something that the media has not been showing that much.

[gilesgoat]

From what they say there Lybia is basically in a civil war, something that the media has not been showing that much.

Also stuff I don't really know well but so it seems this has quite "a big impact on Italian economy" .. I really don't know well the details but it seems there has been "quite a number of important ( as money-making ) Italian companies" that had quite some business with Lybia and now things are all into shit ( actually it seems more than even what we know there were quite a number of significant work/business relationship between Italy and Lybia ).

Sounds also like that was the place were Italy was used to buy petrol and gas .. and now it's all going tits up ..

[gravy]

Ooofio!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/investi ... 67000.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/investi ... me=3208151

Not looking good for Rifkind or Straw. Looks like the Telegraph might have found a worthy successor of their expenses investigation.

[Dio]

This is a pretty grey area though. What crime do you think's being committed?

We don't have restrictions on former politicians consulting in areas related to their previous careers, and I'm not sure how you'd frame such a restriction.

Not that I think this is a good thing, but...

[gravy]

There's no crime associated with this, just a failure to keep to the code of conduct. That said it's a pretty clear violation that will almost certainly see Rifkind off the security services oversight commitee and put a full stop on their parlimentary careers.

Outside of that I'd hope it'd be the inroad for litigation that prevents the influence of those sitting into parliment being bought. Pretty slim chance.

At the least it'll likely lead to some level of independant oversight in the same way the expenses scandal did.

[Dio]

The evidence of influence being bought is thin, though. Straw isn't offering consultancy before he retires as an MP in May; Rifkind's offer of contacts with senior people doesn't necessarily seem to offer anything that thousands of other people don't simply have anyway.

I'd welcome any restrictions on lobbying though, that's for sure.

[pogo]

Doesn’t seem much to me either. You’ve got them claiming to have done things, which may or may not be true. And vaguely discussing what they could do. Rifkind saying he’s self-employed is especially embarrassing as he’s not, but it’s only that, embarrassing.

Reminds me a lot of the Vince Cable incident. Also the Telegraph. Also elderly second-rate politicians. Also attractive young women making them open up more than they would normally (you can’t see them in the heavily edited clips but the undercover reporters are definitely young women from their voices). Extra points for making them Chinese this time. Highly embarrassing for both of them but only that. Notably one outcome of that was a censure of the Telegraph for their techniques, which seem little different this time.

[gravy]

The evidence of influence being bought is thin, though. Straw isn't offering consultancy before he retires as an MP in May; Rifkind's offer of contacts with senior people doesn't necessarily seem to offer anything that thousands of other people don't simply have anyway.

I'd welcome any restrictions on lobbying though, that's for sure.

Straw's being really clear about past help he's given by using "perusuasion and force" to change the laws in a foriegn country for commercial gain of a company he's being paid by Which is clearly againgst the guidelines and should be legally prohibited IMHO

Rifkind's trangressions are more in the realm of beiing a bell end though "I'm self employed and don't have a lot to do!" Don't think he'll have the safe Kensignton seat he currently enjoys next term.

[Dio]

Almost all the guidelines (as described on the BBC web site) restrict action in parliament, but don't really seem to restrict action outside it.

[Governmentyard]

Looks like the Telegraph might have found a worthy successor of their expenses investigation.

...or found something to detract from their own highly publicised shortcomings.

[gravy]

Almost all the guidelines (as described on the BBC web site) restrict action in parliament, but don't really seem to restrict action outside it.

Fair enough though it does rub against the broard guidelines for MP conduct. Then again if that was take entirely seriously the chamber would be mostly empty

Rifkind defending himself on Today this morning -> http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02kmpwh

Not sure saying it's not reasonable to expect MPs to exist on £67k is going to go down well.

[gravy]

And Jack Straw too

SKILLFUL TRAP

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02kmtz0

Let's see if there's more revelations in the actual programme