Politics Thread!

[Dio]

Yeah, the outright majority numbers are surely bollocks especially given the Tories' notorious under-polling. If someone would offer 200:1 on the Tories getting one I'd have ten quid on like a shot.

Minority government looks enormously likely to me. That's going to get messy quite quickly one suspects.

[merman]

Whatever pogo believes and whatever Osborne said about "improved living standards", the reality is this.

The poorest are worse off over the last five years.
Earnings have fallen in real terms more than at any time in the last fifty years - the last time they dropped nearly this much was under Thatcher in 1979-1983.

Among all the measures coming into force is an increase in National Insurance contributions, hitting the lowest paid harder.

More working people have to claim benefits than ever before.

Meanwhile the tax burden for the richest has DROPPED thanks to the threshold adjustments.

And Osborne is still HIDING exactly what will be cut in the next five years.
But we know there will be a FIVE PERCENT CUT IN SPENDING in 2017 and a FIVE PERCENT CUT IN SPENDING in 2018.

And there will be £12 BILLION IN CUTS FROM BENEFITS. That's over £60 million a week not going to those who genuinely need it. That's no way to run the country.

[Dio]

And there will be £12 BILLION IN CUTS FROM BENEFITS. That's over £60 million a week not going to those who genuinely need it. That's no way to run the country.

That remains to be seen. If you take out all the stuff that's protected (pensions related) and fairly obviously not going to be cut that dramatically (disability, etc.) there isn't much of a budget to save £12b from. (The entire JSA budget is only £4bn, for example).

Be interesting to see how much Labour call him on it though. Are they scared to fight on such ground?

[offyoutoddle]

And there will be £12 BILLION IN CUTS FROM BENEFITS. That's over £60 million a week not going to those who genuinely need it. That's no way to run the country.

That remains to be seen. If you take out all the stuff that's protected (pensions related) and fairly obviously not going to be cut that dramatically (disability, etc.) there isn't much of a budget to save £12b from. (The entire JSA budget is only £4bn, for example).

Be interesting to see how much Labour call him on it though. Are they scared to fight on such ground?

when they are telling cancer patients who have 6 months of life left in them to get off their arses and do some more work and don't come back until just before they croak I'm not sure what is sacrosanct and what is not myself.

[Cloudane]

So personally I was genuinely worried when a young and seemingly nice contact posted this (on FB with no truthful summary)

http://reasonstovoteukip.com/

[pogo]

Be interesting to see how much Labour call him on it though. Are they scared to fight on such ground?

That’s it I think. Their problem is they don’t seem to have plans of their own; the government’s plans may be vague in their details but at least they have given a broad outline. Labour have said little about how they will approach the deficit, or at least little that adds up. E.g. they plan to bring back the 50% rate but that raised little last time and would likely raise nothing if reintroduced. Other measures would likely similarly raise little. So they have to make cuts but have been unwilling to mention what, probably as after five years of Tory cuts and austerity unions are unwilling to put up with even one year of Labour’s. No wonder they are unwilling to challenge the Tories on their cuts.

I do wonder why Cameron isn’t willing to debate Miliband one to one. Seems to me he would likely win any such debate, both on policy points like the above and on presentation, as Miliband just doesn’t come across as prime-ministerial. I guess the Tories felt it too risky; it could go wrong on the night in all sorts of ways. And doing a one to one debate might also have required a 3-leader one, which would put Cameron at a disadvantage. Besides people will have plenty of opportunities to see Miliband in the weeks ahead, in interviews, in the events put on by the broadcasters instead of debates, in party political broadcasts.

[merman]

Two UKIP candidates suspended (one for defrauding the EU, the other of an alleged assault) and one stepped down (citing bullying and racism in the party) on Friday.

Now we have a Tory MP colluding with the far-right English Defence League.


But of course, Ed Miliband still looks weird.

[tufty]

Initial results in French Départementales - UMP (the right wing) 36%, PS (the socialists) 28.5%, FN (National Front) 24.5%

With a ~50% turnout, we're looking at one in 8 French voters voting for the extreme right.

And that's somehow a good thing, considering what pre-vote polls were suggesting.

[pogo]

Did anyone see Salmond on TV this morning? Just reading about it in the Guardian. Apparently he wants, as a price for supporting Labour, HS2 to start in Scotland. Which is odd as it was never going to reach Scotland. Given the distances and the trickier terrain (most routes would involve lots of tunnels) it would more than double the cost, and delay the rest of HS2 by decades. And there just aren’t as many customers for it in Scotland. A bit more creative than another referendum or removing Trident but even less likely.

The other highlight is his deficit reduction strategy. It won’t involve tax rises. Or spending cuts. He in fact wants spending to rise in real terms. So how will that cut the deficit? It won’t at all. The implication is a Labour party looking for support for any such measures will find them effectively vetoed by the SNP, if it holds the balance of power. Or if this is just a negotiating position Labour would only be able to implement its programme if it agrees to HS2 starting in Scotland, or whatever else the SNP comes up with between now and the election.

[Ollie]

But of course, Ed Miliband still looks weird.

I can't help wondering if any of the people who keep saying this have had a proper look at Cameron.

[offyoutoddle]

Ed Miliband is to my mind the most unelectable politician to come along since Neil Kinnock. David Cameron sure isn't going to get my vote in a kind of Hobson's choice situation though. With British politics, depending on where you live your vote is thrown down the toilet if you don't agree with popular local opinion, so the choice is strategic voting , or a principled vote for a party that more genuinely reflects your views that doesn't stand a hope in hell of getting anywhere - which becomes soul destroying. I really can see myself staying at home on election day more and more as the time comes closer, and I never thought I'd say that.

[pogo]

But of course, Ed Miliband still looks weird.

I can't help wondering if any of the people who keep saying this have had a proper look at Cameron.

Cameron is more popular than his party, while the reverse is true for Miliband who is liked far less than Labour. In fact Milband is so unpopular he competes with Clegg for the booby prize of most unpopular of the main three party leaders. And Clegg heads a party about to be mauled by voters with its worst performance for a generation. This has helped Cameron immensely. He’s no Blair or Thatcher, but he looks good next to Miliband.

It’s clearly not helped Labour having him as leader. Probably with someone more presentable and capable they would have wrapped up the election by now. And it may get worse for them. Many people have not had a good look at Miliband. The leader of the opposition does not have much to do between elections, and he had no major role in the last one or the government that preceded it. He has no choice now but to put himself front and centre of Labour’s election campaign, which will more closely tie his parties fortunes to his. He could still lose the election for Labour.

[Cloudane]

If ousting Brown for Cameron & Clegg has taught me anything, it's that there's more to it than having a charismatic leader or whether he looks a bit weird.

[gravy]

Cameron is more popular than his party, while the reverse is true for Miliband who is liked far less than Labour. In fact Milband is so unpopular he competes with Clegg for the booby prize of most unpopular of the main three party leades

That's true but Cameron's achieved that by mostly keeping his head a pretty low press profile for a Prime Minister. I think that's a delibarate (and pretty good to be honest) strategy and probably motivatiob behind really not wanting to do the televised debates.

That changes for the election campaign which will find him more directly identified with the cons least popular policies. He's going to have to find another way to deal with that if he's going to maintain his currnt approval ratings.

[Dio]

His own party works really hard to distance themselves from him, despite him being far more popular than the party itself is. That's extraordinarily odd.