Politics Thread!

[KlaxonCow]

Trident is needed as a deterent.

The UK had Trident when the Argentinians invaded the Falkland Islands.

Didn't seem to deter them much, did it?

[offyoutoddle]

wasn't it always seen as a deterrent to Nuclear superpowers, not would-be enemies capable only of conventional warfare? Trident has nothing to offer in conventional confrontations in reality.

Certainly Argentina didn't expect a nuke for their troubles as they know international condemnation of any country making a first nuclear strike against a non-nuclear power would be pretty high. Fairly safe gamble, since its only there to play the old MAD game that was so fashionable in the Cold War.

Considering I never ranked us as a world superpower, it always seemed a bit arrogant of us to think we needed it on the face of it - like a little dog yapping around the heels of the bigger players trying to secure ourselves some sense of relevance. This was a game that I am sure most who lived through the days of the Cold War would have been happy to leave to the US and the Soviet Union as it was.

Trident surprises me as becoming an election issue - it probably wouldn't were it not for the fear of SNP power broking that everyone thinks is likely . I aways thought the SNP just want the theoretical bullseye painted over scotland removed when they talk about Trident abolition. The extra cash helps too if asking the question about devolution again - after all it seems to need asking again and again until the 'right' answer is arrived at for the SNP.

[pogo]

Like a lot of what the SNP say, scrapping Trident is something they say to keep supporters happy but not something they expect to win in any negotiation with Labour. Something I read recently pointed out that it was also a Lib-Dem policy to scrap it, but a Tory one to keep it, but the two parties did not let that get in the way of a coalition.

What will the SNP do? If they’re smart they will largely support Labour and their agenda. They can claim credit for keeping the Tories out of power then work over the course of the parliament to win support for their priorities and block anything they see as especially damaging to their/Scotland’s interests.

If they’re less smart they’ll act to hold up government business until they get their way, whether things designed to benefit Scotland or a significant lurch to the left in UK-wide policies. This will not only damage the economy but lose support for the SNP but especially Labour. Labour know this so will likely refuse any such concessions, resulting in gridlock which will as surely wreck the economy and both parties standings in the polls.

[Absolute_Zero]

Trident is needed as a deterent.

The UK had Trident when the Argentinians invaded the Falkland Islands.

Polaris. The first Trident patrol set proverbial sail in '94.

Didn't seem to deter them much, did it?

According to the most recent Strategic Defence and Security Review, its stated purpose is to provide: "the minimum effective nuclear deterrent as the ultimate means to deter the most extreme threat."

Invading the Falkland Islands hardly rates as an extreme threat.

[gravy]

No it was a positive boon. To Thatcher's subsequent election campaign.

[The ghost of raids past]

The defense of the Falklands allowed the vast majority of the population to keep living in the way they had been for hundreds of Years. The only reason Argentina invaded was to distract their own population and the only reason they are pushing again is the prospect of Oil being discovered

[gravy]

Yeah, those 3,000 or so are safe to live as they please for the cheap cost of a thousand lives and tens of millions of pounds.

Bargain

[zip accident]

The defense of the Falklands allowed the vast majority of the population to keep living in the way they had been for hundreds of Years. The only reason Argentina invaded was to distract their own population and the only reason they are pushing again is the prospect of Oil being discovered

One reason they invaded then was oil. There's potentially oil all the way to the South Pole, and if they annex the Falklands, they could annex Antarctica which would not be good for all the international science done down there.

[pogo]

The government have to do something to deflect attention from their mismanagement of the economy. You can use their interest in Las Islas Malvinas as a barometer of the Argentine economy; it is especially high now as the economy is in deep trouble, after their effective default last year.

[zip accident]

The government have to do something to deflect attention from their mismanagement of the economy.

It worked for Thatcher.

[gravy]

The government have to do something to deflect attention from their mismanagement of the economy.

So invade the falklands again then?

The defense of the Falklands allowed the vast majority of the population to keep living in the way they had been for hundreds of Years. The only reason Argentina invaded was to distract their own population and the only reason they are pushing again is the prospect of Oil being discovered

One reason they invaded then was oil. There's potentially oil all the way to the South Pole, and if they annex the Falklands, they could annex Antarctica which would not be good for all the international science done down there.

Argentina is closer to the Antarctic than the Malvinas and they've made territorial claims on it anway.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_Antarctica

[pogo]

The government have to do something to deflect attention from their mismanagement of the economy.

It worked for Thatcher.

Yes, and when the buzz from the Falklands war wore off and Thatcher had to run on her economic record she was soundly beaten. Or wait, didn’t they win that election too? And the one after that? And the one after that? The Falklands war may have helped a little in 1983 but the Tories would not won that or the three after that, largely on their economic record.

Argentina is closer to the Antarctic than the Malvinas and they've made territorial claims on it anway.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_Antarctica

Antarctic claims have limited significance. They can and do overlap, they don’t entitle anyone to territory or exclusive rights. Commercial exploitation is banned, so all claimants can do is establish scientific bases. Even if they created 100 times the number there now it would still be a very empty continent with plenty of room for all.

[zip accident]

Argentina is closer to the Antarctic than the Malvinas and they've made territorial claims on it anway.

*gets down globe and looks at it.*

Yeah, but there's a sort of loose archipelago, running through the Falklandas, South Georgia, South Sandwich Islands, South Shetlands, to the Antarctic mainland, and the claim along that might seem stronger, if they could just get rid of the pesky Brits. With garrisons all along the way it could take a lot of trouble stopping them.

[tufty]

The government have to do something to deflect attention from their mismanagement of the economy. You can use their interest in Las Islas Malvinas as a barometer of the Argentine economy; it is especially high now as the economy is in deep trouble, after their effective default last year.

But. But. But. Surely Argentina is *the* textbook testbed of Neoliberal economic policy, of which you are so much a fan? Shame that, for Argentin, it's gone as follows:

Privatisation, Deregulation, Ummmm, Profit Bankruptcy.

[pogo]

Yeah, but there's a sort of loose archipelago, running through the Falklandas, South Georgia, South Sandwich Islands, South Shetlands, to the Antarctic mainland, and the claim along that might seem stronger, if they could just get rid of the pesky Brits. With garrisons all along the way it could take a lot of trouble stopping them.

Again, Antarctic claims are largely meaningless. They don’t e.g. stop other countries coming into them and setting up bases, as both Argentina and the UK have done in the territory they dispute. Or as the US does despite having making no territorial claim. Not only commercial activity but military activity is banned: even if you wanted to stop someone coming there’s no way you could.

The (temporary) population of Antarctica is about 5000. That’s the same as a very small town, or a large village. In a space larger than that of Europe. There’s plenty of space for everyone who wants a base there.