Politics Thread!

Inane baanter or words of wisdom - you decide...
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pogo
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by pogo »

tufty wrote:
pogo wrote:The government have to do something to deflect attention from their mismanagement of the economy. You can use their interest in Las Islas Malvinas as a barometer of the Argentine economy; it is especially high now as the economy is in deep trouble, after their effective default last year.
But. But. But. Surely Argentina is *the* textbook testbed of Neoliberal economic policy, of which you are so much a fan? Shame that, for Argentin, it's gone as follows:

Privatisation, Deregulation, Ummmm, Profit Bankruptcy.
Argentina neoliberal ?? Gross mismanagement more like. They were once one of the richest countries in the world, eighty years ago or so. But they suffered from an extended resource curse, not moving away from agriculture which had served them so well as the world industrialised and modernised. They’ve had their share of military dictatorships, one of which invaded the Falklands. But it’s democratic governments that have done the most damage.

Their current problems arise from a debt crisis a decade or more ago. They introduced a currency board, a form of currency peg to the US$. This generated growth and exports as Argentinians were able to borrow and trade more freely and cheaply. But it was not fully funded, it depended on government finances, and when those were called into question the currency board collapsed, triggering devaluation and defaults.

This was more sudden and worse because of the currency board, but was still manageable. E.g. Asia had been through something similar before when the Thai Baht and other currencies lost their (less formal) peg to the US$. They defaulted, devalued, and got on with rebuilding. Argentina though refused to do business with its creditors, blaming them for its troubles, and generally refused to act like a normal indebted country. They eventually tried to impose settlement on its creditors, but not everyone accepted, leading eventually to court cases (in New York as the bonds were covered by New York law) and default.

I don’t think it’s especially neoliberal. It’s more populist, with the state interfering far more than’s necessary in the economy and industrial policy, with nationalist and populist concerns trumping sound economic ones. The recent spat over the Falklands is a classic example. Are they going to stop firms exploring for oil there? No. But they might stop them using Argentine ports, hiring Argentine workers, buying Argentine equipment. Chile will happily take care of all their needs instead.
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Re: Politics Thread!

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pogo wrote:
tufty wrote:
pogo wrote:The government have to do something to deflect attention from their mismanagement of the economy. You can use their interest in Las Islas Malvinas as a barometer of the Argentine economy; it is especially high now as the economy is in deep trouble, after their effective default last year.
But. But. But. Surely Argentina is *the* textbook testbed of Neoliberal economic policy, of which you are so much a fan? Shame that, for Argentin, it's gone as follows:

Privatisation, Deregulation, Ummmm, Profit Bankruptcy.
Argentina neoliberal ?? Gross mismanagement more like.
These things, are in no way, mutually exclusive
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by pogo »

Miliband saying the same mistakes were made in Libya as Iraq! But wasn’t one of those when Labour was in charge? Yes, but Miliband was only in cabinet from 2008 – 2010, sort of between the two conflicts. Of course we were still in Iraq then, until 2009. But it was nothing to do with him! So much for collective responsibility.

Mostly though it shows again how little experience of government he has, spending only two years in cabinet as a relatively junior minister. How he is now fit to be PM I don’t know. Many thought John Major would not be up for it but he at least was Chancellor immediately before becoming leader and PM.
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by Absolute_Zero »

Wot? That seems a bizarre criticism of Miliband given Cameron's cabinet experience prior to 2010 ['Special Advisor'].
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by pogo »

Cameron though was the Conservative party’s choice for leader after being out of power for almost a decade (replacing Michael Howard). Spend enough time in opposition and you run out of ministers who haven’t retired, ruled themselves our or had a go at the job already. Labour were in the same situation when they elected Blair.

Miliband was elected, i.e. chosen by the unions, in preference to his far more qualified and capable brother, and former chancellor Ed Balls. In 2010 Labour were not short of capable and experienced ex ministers who would have made very good leaders. But they chose Ed, who had only been an MP for five years, only in the cabinet for two.
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Re: Politics Thread!

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If they'd had a 3rd party chose their leader they might have avoided the embarrasment of Hague, IDS and Howard.

Hahah, IDS. Man they're such a bunch of idiots.
pogo wrote:But they chose Ed, who had only been an MP for five years, only in the cabinet for two.

Oh and Cameron had only been an MP for 4 years and in the shadow cabinet for 7 months when he was made leader :lol: By your metric that makes him less suitable for high office than Milliband.
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Re: Politics Thread!

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@pogo

Miliband doesn't exactly fill me with confidence despite a relatively good campaign [IMHO] but you're stretching on the experience front.

PS Balls was Economic Secretary to the Treasury and subsequently Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families... not former chancellor.
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Re: Politics Thread!

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Miliband has improved markedly over the course of the campaign, surprising me and I think the Tory party who were hoping he would do their work for them convincing voters he was unsuitable. He’s achieved this in part though by not talking much about the details of his plans and so not saying whether (and where) he will cut, or borrow more instead. As the Guardian article posted the other day noted, Labour’s plans are by far the most vague of the major parties.

Ah, yes, Darling was chancellor. I thought Balls was (with David Miliband) more senior than Ed but it looks like he too was inexperienced. He did (and still does) come across as the much more effective politician. Labour would be doing much better now with Balls as leader.
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Re: Politics Thread!

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pogo wrote:Labour would be doing much better now with Balls as leader.
Where did he get that name? I don't think that name is electable, no matter who's wearing it.
"My way is the way of not fighting":- the book of Enter the Dragon.
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Re: Politics Thread!

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zip accident wrote:
pogo wrote:Labour would be doing much better now with Balls as leader.
Where did he get that name? I don't think that name is electable, no matter who's wearing it.
I think many people thought the same of Barack Hussein Obama. Who would elect someone with such a name, a Muslim sounding name in a country still scarred by 9/11? Yet his name ended up not that important in the end.
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Re: Politics Thread!

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<< rant redacted >>
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by VNVObit »

Read the IFS's briefing on the the extension of right to buy. Summary does contain a rather damning statement for a party that claims to be financially sensible
Extending Right to Buy to HA tenants would bring about equal treatment of HA and LA tenants, and additional sales would increase homeownership rates. It would also represent a significant giveaway to HA tenants – potentially billions of pounds over the next parliament – paid for by selling public assets (expensive LA properties). This would worsen the UK's underlying public finance position.
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by pogo »

I think the devil is in the detail with the new Right to Buy. If it leads to more houses being built as the money raised has to be used for that then it will be a good thing. But if it just ends up shuffling money around then it will achieve very little. There‘s the rights of Housing Associations to consider: they are not just branches of government that can be told what to do.

I don’t think it has too many implications for public finances: the cost to the government will only be part of the cost of each purchase, which means the multiplier on it should be very good. The multiplier is a measure of how much government spending or tax cuts leads to a growth in GDP. With a high enough multiplier some changes can pay for themselves. Politicians often make heroic assumptions about multipliers, thinking they can e.g. increase spending or cut taxes and it will not affect the deficit because growth generated will boost tax revenues so much that it pays for the changes. It rarely works out like that, but it could come much closer in this case.

But there’s an even easier way to tackle Britain’s housing problems. Build more houses. The government need not and should not build them itself. Just relax planning laws enough so everyone who wants to build a home can. This requires no government money, but would generate large sums for the treasury from the tax on all that economic activity and long term from growth due to the increased efficiency of people being more able to live where they need to.
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by Dio »

pogo wrote:Build more houses. The government need not and should not build them itself.
On that latter part we can disagree.
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by pogo »

The problem with the government building houses is it tends not to happen. Or it happens too slowly, or it happens in the wrong place, or they are the wrong type. Or the very fact the government built them leads to them being disliked, stigmatised and eventually condemned – as happened to many if not most council-built tower blocks.

We have a perfectly healthy private housing market. It’s so healthy that it’s sending out valuable price signals, telling us that supply is not keeping up with demand. The fix to that is simple: improve housing supply, especially where people want to buy around London and the South East.
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