Politics Thread!

[gravy]

UKIP gaining some traction

http://metro.co.uk/2015/04/26/moors-mur ... s-5167656/

[(o)(o)]

UKIP gaining some traction

http://metro.co.uk/2015/04/26/moors-mur ... s-5167656/

LOL!

Have the Nasties ruled out a UKIP coalition ?

[merman]

UKIP gaining some traction

http://metro.co.uk/2015/04/26/moors-mur ... s-5167656/

LOL!

Have the Nasties ruled out a UKIP coalition ?

No, not formally.

The maths puts Tories + LibDem + DUP at fewer votes than Labour + SNP, so a right-wing minority Government can't limp through five years. Especially as the Lib Dems look like losing so many seats.

But today all the RED LINES seem to suggest no-one will work with anyone, which is a bad thing for the country.

[Cloudane]

The only thing I've heard Dave rule out is doing a deal with a party who won't let them have an EU referendum. They and UKIP are singing from the same hymn sheet on that one (amongst a few others I think) so I think it's far from ruled out.
The question is whether UKIP would have enough seats to form a duo with them to begin with. But I've noticed there are a LOT of people who seem to support them but stay quiet about it (because they know they're controversial and don't fancy an argument or being called racist etc) and personally I expect many true colours to come out of the woodwork on polling day. We may end up surprised how far this lot go.
If not, then Dave's going to end up in a darkened room with Clegg, or doing the nigh-impossible and mixing 3+ parties, or... what happens after that, does he hand over the opportunity to the runner up?

I have noticed he's going with the line of "we don't want a coalition" (at all) but is being very careful to be as assertive with it as possible without literally ruling one out, so that when (definitely a when IMO) he does need help to form a government he can weasel out of any comments about backtracking.

Can a party switch leaders during a hung parliament? If so, technically, he can also become a sacrificial weasel - he's said that HE is not willing to lead a government that won't have a referendum, but who's to say he'll be leading the party anyway?

[The ghost of raids past]

UKIP gaining some traction

http://metro.co.uk/2015/04/26/moors-mur ... s-5167656/

LOL!

Have the Nasties ruled out a UKIP coalition ?

No, not formally.

The maths puts Tories + LibDem + DUP at fewer votes than Labour + SNP, so a right-wing minority Government can't limp through five years. Especially as the Lib Dems look like losing so many seats.

But today all the RED LINES seem to suggest no-one will work with anyone, which is a bad thing for the country.

A Left Wing Minority Government propped up by the SNP wont last a year

[gravy]

We're a centrist / left wing country aren't we?

Lab + SNP + LDP cover greater than 50% of the vote iirc. That kind of coalition wouldn't be rock solid but if you had to choose it'd be huge preferable to the cons throwing their lot in with DUP and UKIP fucknuts.

[pogo]

UKIP look unlikely to improve much on their two seats. It looks like the Tories and Labour will dominate, the SNP will be by far the best of the rest with the Lib Dems far behind them in fourth. Other parties probably won’t get enough votes to matter much.

The main parties would like to get 320 seats on their own for an overall majority but that seems very unlikely. If they come close they could partner with the Lib Dems (who would be very happy to do so) but even that seems far fetched. Most likely is the parties will have very similar numbers of seats and will need the support of the SNP to govern.

Which in theory means Labour as the SNP have ruled out working with the Tories. But I too cannot see that working for long; the last thing the SNP want is a strong confident Labour government doing well, regaining ground in Scotland, making the case for independence weaker.

(yes there are other mathematically feasible coalitions but the chances of them are very small. Even if other parties are involved it seems very likely the SNP will be involved)

[The ghost of raids past]

The SNP would not be favourable for the majority of the UK, they are only interested in a coalition to get more cash flowing into Scotland. While I dont favour UKIP I would hope the Conservatives would be able to form a coalition that doesnt need them.

UKIP is the dangerous party from a Conservative view point, they may well steal enough votes to lose a few seats for the Cons and a few seats is all thats going to be needed.

I wouldnt describe the country as centerist/ Left wing. The North is largely left wing and the south largely cente/ right. Since there are more people in the south that makes the country centre/ right.

[Portland]

Ooh, poll.

[pogo]

We're a centrist / left wing country aren't we?

Lab + SNP + LDP cover greater than 50% of the vote iirc. That kind of coalition wouldn't be rock solid but if you had to choose it'd be huge preferable to the cons throwing their lot in with DUP and UKIP fucknuts.

They don’t though. Labour are on 33%, the Lib Dems on 8%, the SNP on about 4% nationally (the last based on 50% of 8% of the UK population). That’s only 45%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/poll-tracker

The Tories + UKIP have more (47%) – if UKIP weren’t taking Tory votes the Tories would be in for massive majority.

It’s not about vote % though but seats. The SNP’s votes translate into seats better than any other party, as they are concentrated not spread out, and in smaller constituencies that need fewer vote to win. They are on track to get many more seats than the Lib Dems + UKIP, with only 1/5 the vote shared by those two parties.

[gravy]

That's kind of confusing, we haven't elected a Conservative government since 1992 and the overwhelming % of vote has been for left / centre parties.

Even in the last election 61% of the people who voted did so for Labour / LDP

@pogo

You're missing out Greens

33 + 8 + 4 + 5 = 50%

The UKIP vote will drop though when the final votes are countred and we'll have yet another majority for left and center as we have for the last generation. Whether translates into a government that reflects that is another matter.

It might change. I think Thatcher being such a cunt set up where we are now. Newer voters won't carry the same memories though.

[pogo]

I just added up the ones you listed. Yes, add the Greens and you get to 50%. Four way coalition FTW! It works so well for Israel, why not here?

As for the country being left wing depends mostly how you classify the Lib Dems who traditionally occupy the centre ground between Labour and the Tories. Probably they are closest of all the parties to the sympathies of the average voter. Shame that they have been squeezed by other parties into irrelevance. Fourth in votes behind UKIP. Fourth in seats behind the SNP.

[gravy]

I just added up the ones you listed. Yes, add the Greens and you get to 50%. Four way coalition FTW! It works so well for Israel, why not here?

As for the country being left wing depends mostly how you classify the Lib Dems who traditionally occupy the centre ground between Labour and the Tories. Probably they are closest of all the parties to the sympathies of the average voter. Shame that they have been squeezed by other parties into irrelevance. Fourth in votes behind UKIP. Fourth in seats behind the SNP.

I didn't say the country was majority left wing. I said it was left / centrist and not right wing. And I'm not saying we should have a four way coalition; it's a nonsense to suggest as well all now 50% of the vote doesn't map to 50% of the seats.

It's just an observation that we've not given a right wing party a majority in the UK for 23 years and that says something about the political character of the electorate

[pogo]

You could as easily say we are a right / centrist country. We are certainly on the right in Europe, compared to the theoretically right wing parties there such as the CDU in Germany or UDP in France. Even Blair was to the right of many of our EU partners. When Labour drifted too far to the left in the 1980s it became unelectable, and it took Blair to move it back to the centre and make it electable.

It’s not that there’s no support for a right wing party either. The Tories had a far larger lead in 2010 (7.1%) than Labour in 2005 (2.8%). But the Labour bias in our electoral system means Labour need far fewer votes to win. Or at least it did: the SNP’s anticipated clean sweep in Scotland has mopped up many of Labour’s easily winnable seats. In England the seats won by the main parties should match the proportion of their votes much more closely.

[gravy]

You could as easily say we are a right / centrist country. We are certainly on the right in Europe, compared to the theoretically right wing parties there such as the CDU in Germany or UDP in France. Even Blair was to the right of many of our EU partners. When Labour drifted too far to the left in the 1980s it became unelectable, and it took Blair to move it back to the centre and make it electable.

It’s not that there’s no support for a right wing party either. The Tories had a far larger lead in 2010 (7.1%) than Labour in 2005 (2.8%). But the Labour bias in our electoral system means Labour need far fewer votes to win. Or at least it did: the SNP’s anticipated clean sweep in Scotland has mopped up many of Labour’s easily winnable seats. In England the seats won by the main parties should match the proportion of their votes much more closely.

Seats aside, there's no % majority vote for a right wing government in the last election or any since 1992.

In 2010 Labour + SNP = 14m votes, Cons = 8m

There is support for a right wing position, it's just minority support and has been for a generation. That gap looks like it's closing a bit but as I say, the UKIP % in the polls likely will collapse in the actual vote.

Stop wriggling and squirming, look at the numbers.