Politics Thread!

[zip accident]

On the "logic" of Labour voters, aren't they pretty strong up here in the North? Let me tell you, we're used to rain. I've seen many outdoor events here absolutely buzzing when it's been tipping it down, you just happen to see a crowd of brollies instead of heads. No one up here gives a fuck about getting wet if they want to do something. So if anything I'd think the opposite. But hey, regardless of political leaning, if someone is a bit on the fence about whether they can be arsed to do something, bad weather makes an excellent excuse and is very frequently utilised.

You'd think that, but allegedly historically pleasant weather has been good for the left in British politics.

[pogo]

Are those the same people who read tea leaves to tell you your fortune, if you pass silver across their palm?

Seriously, what the shit could be the causal mechanism between being a Labour voter and not liking rain, that somehow magically doesn't apply to any other political party just as equally?

It was mentioned by someone in this thread, though I can’t now recall who. There is probably some effect if turnout is up or down: the low turnout in the last EU parliament probably allowed UKIP to do so well. If instead 70% of the electorate had voted UKIP would have probably fared much less well. Even if there’s not a national effect there might be local ones with our reliably variable weather.

[phattslagg]

I can see how it could possibly affect the demographic least passionate about the outcome. I would therefore expect the Tories to fare worst, should it rain on Thursday, and that UKIP might,again, benefit slightly.

[(o)(o)]

I can't answer the poll because I don't know who to vote for.

Tatton constituency which is safe Conservative.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/tatton/

I want the Tories out.

Who do I vote for?

[(o)(o)]

My choice is :

Labour
Lib Dem
Green
Spoil paper

[Purple Grapefruit]

Some people think that bad weather will be bad for Labour, as their voters are more likely to be put off by bad weather.

Are those the same people who read tea leaves to tell you your fortune, if you pass silver across their palm?

Seriously, what the shit could be the causal mechanism between being a Labour voter and not liking rain, that somehow magically doesn't apply to any other political party just as equally?

I suppose poor people are more likely to vote Labour and because of that are more likely to have zimmer frames rather than cars,
can't afford bus fares, don't have a nanny to look after their kid so they have to take them with them to the polling station...

etc.

[gravy]

Well they're obviously dirty, filth ridden oiks and likely more than a little bit shy of water what what!

[pogo]

Supposedly old people are keener to vote anyway, so maybe are more likely to turn up whatever the weather and so will have more influence if the weather is bad. What way they will vote is harder to say. All parties have been generous to older voters in the past (to woo all those elderly voters). I would guess they would be less likely to change their vote, more likely to stick with the party they’ve supported before. Though UKIP might appeal to them with its pledge to take us back to the 1960s (before the EU, before other waves of immigration, before the abolition of grammar schools !).

[zip accident]

I suppose poor people are more likely to vote Labour and because of that are more likely to have zimmer frames rather than cars,
can't afford bus fares, don't have a nanny to look after their kid so they have to take them with them to the polling station...

etc.

I think it's more of a matter of if you're not filthy rich, you have to be a masochist to vote Tory, and masochists like "bad" weather.

[(o)(o)]

Can nobody tell me?

I thought this was 'supposed to be' a democracy...

If that's the case - why the ' guess who to vote for ' game.

The outcome of my vote should correspond with my intent.

That's the whole fucking point isn't it!

The voting system in this country is fucked.

We're going to end up with corporation bitches whatever happens.

Its time for PR or something. Yes, like in Isreal..

Not AV. That's even more of a headfuck.

[pogo]

I think it's more of a matter of if you're not filthy rich, you have to be a masochist to vote Tory, and masochists like "bad" weather.

The people that benefitted most from govt policies the last five years are the lowest paid. Anyone paying the basic rate has seen some tax saving but they have most helped those closest to the thresholds, large numbers of whom have been removed from tax altogether. Pensioners have also done very well, with pensions uprated generously and now with the triple lock. So not just rich people and masochists.

We’ll see. I don’t personally think weather will make an identifiable difference; it is just too complicated and random (i.e. the British weather – it’s not going to be sunny or tipping down everywhere). I would not be surprised though if polls are not capturing people’s voting intentions well this time round, with in particular UKIP. It could be many people will vote for UKIP but aren’t prepared to admit it to pollsters, for fear of appearing racist, and there could be tactical voting to keep UKIP out.

Its time for PR or something. Yes, like in Isreal..

Er, no. Israel is a great advert for not doing PR or anything like it, unless you want extremists to have a permanent voice. And in the UK the extremists with the most support by far are the racist ones. I don’t think you’d like the sort of governments such a system would result in here.

[(o)(o)]

Its time for PR or something. Yes, like in Isreal..

Er, no. Israel is a great advert for not doing PR or anything like it, unless you want extremists to have a permanent voice. And in the UK the extremists with the most support by far are the racist ones. I don’t think you’d like the sort of governments such a system would result in here.

That's not the main argument against PR actually.

Do you believe in democracy or not? Three quarters want a more proportional system :

http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/pres ... poll-shows

[(o)(o)]

[zip accident]

Its time for PR or something. Yes, like in Isreal..

Er, no. Israel is a great advert for not doing PR or anything like it, unless you want extremists to have a permanent voice. And in the UK the extremists with the most support by far are the racist ones. I don’t think you’d like the sort of governments such a system would result in here.

That's not the main argument against PR actually.

Do you believe in democracy or not? Three quarters want a more proportional system :

http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/pres ... poll-shows

We’re trying to squeeze seven or more parties into an old-fashioned two-party system,

This hasn't been a two party system since it was the Whigs versus whoever (Liberals? or were Whigs liberal and their opponents the Tories?). It changed from Liberal versus Tory with Labour a distant third to Labour versus Tory with Liberals a distant third between the First World War and the Second, but it's been three main parties since Victorian times.

[pogo]

Then why did we decisively vote against a more proportional system only a few years ago? The vote was over 67% against so more than a 2:1 majority against it.

Probably people want a more proportional system, recognising the flaws in our current system. But when asked about particular replacements the flaws become obvious. We’ve already had a vote on AV. Full PR would be even less popular I think: not only do you lose constituency MPs but you need party lists, so MPs chosen by politicians not voters, which I think would be very unpopular in the UK, where we are rightly suspicious of MPs.

And it is hard to point to a place it works well. Israel is one example. Belgium is another, highlighting the other problem of PR which is instability. Belgium had an election in 2010 after which they were unable to form a government until 2011, 541 days later. Breaking their previous record of 198 days set in 2007-2008.