Politics Thread!

[(o)(o)]

One thing I can’t see happening is a larger coalition on the right, like the progressive one the SNP seems to want. It would need to include the Lib Dems...

[gravy]

We’ll see. The only plausible way for Cameron to be PM again is if the Tories do far better than the polls suggest, enough that they can govern with the Lib Dems again. But I can’t see the polls being that badly wrong.

Oh yeah, I'm painting the rosiest possible picture for Cameron and saying that would still be shaky ground for him politicall.

Wonder if it will be Boris next? I know the grass rooters are very antipathetic towards Cameron and other than having the benefit of not being Cameron I don't have a view about how the Tories view him.

[pogo]

Re ‘BLUKIP’, polls predict UKIP will get between 1 and 3 seats, while the DUP will get maybe 8. A Tory-UKIP-DUP coalition is impossible, unless the polls are very very wrong: the Tories would need 310 or more seats for it to work. And before it happens they would be in coalition with the Lib Dems. They will only need around 300 seats for that, and it would suit both parties more than partnering with others.

[pogo]

[gravy]

Haha, he's alright when he don't give a fuck.

Today's Ashcroft poll has cons on 34% and lab on 32%

[merman]

Haha, he's alright when he don't give a fuck.

Today's Ashcroft poll has cons on 34% and lab on 32%

The last twelve major newspaper polls have Labour or Conservatives between 32-34%.

Very little has changed. The impact of the fake Tory letters, the right wing editorials, the EdStone - it's not changed either party's fortunes.

So when you vote on Thursday, get ready to do it all over again by Christmas...

[pogo]

Nah, it will probably be a Labour-SNP government. Despite Miliband’s bold claims he will stick to his own platform, not change it to suit other parties, that doesn’t really hold him to anything as he has been very vague on the detail, with pledges such as eliminating the deficit as soon as possible being essentially meaningless. Plus the SNP’s platform is pretty close to Labour, or at least does not really contradict anything in Labour’s vague platform, so is not going to cause him many problems.

The SNP will likely be even keener on making it work. They are not about to vote down a Labour administration and risk a return of the Conservatives, or even worse for them a loss some of their 50+ MPs. So things that are Scottish priorities but which have no support in England will be dropped rather than treated as red lines that Labour has to support, or kicked into the long grass such as handed to a commission to study it.

[gravy]

Here we go, coalition welfare cuts leak

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... d-disabled

[Cloudane]

This bit of advice on tactical voting on the same place
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... y-election
Sways me to vote Labour (not Green, which I was considering) and everything else I've heard recently has easily convinced me that the Tories getting in for a second term would not make for happy times. Yay, a decision! Let's hope a few more ditherers come to one.

[gravy]

As a bit of light relief lets all have a look at something we can all agree on, the enormous bellendry of UKIP

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ro ... ry-5641537

[F-ZeroOne]

Jon Snow knows more than stereotypical American:

http://mashable.com/2015/04/30/uk-elect ... -jon-snow/

[Cloudane]

Another unfortunate one-off bad apple for the totally-not-racist UKIP then

If that lot one day ended up in power I bet the back bench would be rather... lively

[VNVObit]

As a bit of light relief lets all have a look at something we can all agree on, the enormous bellendry of UKIP

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ro ... ry-5641537

enormous doesn't give you the scale of it

[offyoutoddle]

Another unfortunate one-off bad apple for the totally-not-racist UKIP then

If that lot one day ended up in power I bet the back bench would be rather... lively

enough apples for the whole bloody orchard I'd say

[Ollie]

Exciting!

That makes YouGov the exception then. It’s the only one predicting Labour will have more seats, the other five are predicting the Tories will have more, all by wider margins:

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

Those are forecasts, not polls. The forecasts allow for differences between what people say in the polls and how they actually vote, which usually favours the incumbent. YouGov's poll has Labour 4 seats ahead, but their latest forecast puts the Tories 22 seats ahead:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/03/zone-uncertainty/