Politics Thread!

[Purple Grapefruit]

[techno12]

Pleased as punch how it turned out - didn't expect a majority.

I was scared stiff of that mad wobbling-headed Scottish woman dictating things.

Let's see if Cameron 'finishes the job' - no coalition to get in the way so fingers crossed..

[pogo]

Who said this and when?:

“I HAVE a haunting feeling that there is a silent majority sitting behind its lace curtains, waiting to come out and vote Tory.”

Spoiler: show

These were not the eve-of-election words of some fearful Labour spin-doctor on Ed Miliband’s team, but of Labour cabinet minister Barbara Castle—on the eve of the 1970 general election. (source)

The point is this has happened before, and not just in 1992. Someone on the radio said that a party hasn’t won the UK general election from the left since 1945. But Labour keep trying, and failing.

I hope Labour avoid repeating history yet again in 2020, and I am optimistic they can. Not only is there no shortage of good advice from senior figures but I heard also on the radio that they plan to run the leadership elections using one member one vote, so not the flawed process in 2010 that the unions were able to hijack and insert their preferred candidate (ahead of his more popular brother). Unions in particular should realise that their strategy badly backfired – they got their man elected and the move to the left they wanted but it probably cost them the election.

[pogo]

And we can hopefully put the “shy Tory” meme to bed. They weren’t that shy about saying who they voted for when asked immediately after voting, as the exit poll was far more accurate. But the polls before the election failed to find these unexplained Tory voters.

I suspect it’s a limitation of their methods: they use internet polling for speed but that is going to exclude a large demographic who just don’t use the internet. They must have to compensate for this built in bias in their samples, but clearly got that wrong this time. But they were unable to see it; with their predictions so similar they must have felt reassured they were doing the right thing. After all they could not all be wrong !

[VNVObit]

The markets approve of the election result

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32644523

markets just like certainty. a party with overall majority removed the potential month of not knowing who would govern.

[gravy]

Oh he's a charming man!

[merman]

The markets approve of the election result

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32644523

markets just like certainty. a party with overall majority removed the potential month of not knowing who would govern.

Bank shares up, because Cameron won't regulate.
Estate agent shares up, because there's no mansion tax and the right to buy extension will force up prices.
Private healthcare forms up, because the Tories will carve up more of the NHS - and those firms will then hide their profits overseas to avoid paying tax here.

[pogo]

I think it’s more straightforward. Markets just don’t like uncertainty. There’s some with the Tories with the potential EU exit, but that’s limited by the chance the EU will collapse of its own accord over a similar timescale. There was far more uncertainty associated with Labour’s economic plans. Even more with a hung parliament and likely SNP/Labour government.

[The ghost of raids past]

While some people seem to like the idea of a Mansion Tax. Its electoral suicide in the south east. Labour proved that, its time to stop with a policy that punishes people for living in areas where house supply is low and demand high.

The very name of the Tax is misleading too. A Mansion in my mind conjures up a large 5-6 bedroom house set in acres of grounds. In London 2 million pounds will buy you a smallish flat in Knightsbridge.

[pogo]

The problem was not with the mansion tax (despite its misleading name) in isolation but with all their policies aimed at the rich, especially foreigners. Also the 50% top rate. Also abolishing non-dom status. Also bumping up stamp duty for foreigners. These would not have raised money, but lost it. Individually there was maybe the chance the mansion tax would generate some income, but as a whole they were certain not to, they squeezed the same small and mobile group just too much – we have too much evidence of this, such as the response to the 50% rate earlier in this parliament.

And Labour knew this. Ed Balls admitted it over non-dom status earlier this year. But they were going to do it anyway. Then when as expected they lost money they would raise taxes on ordinary people and increase borrowing, to pay for their spending, as happened last time they were in power. That’s the problem with governing from the left: you end up with ideological “bash the rich” policies, which everyone knows won’t raise money and ordinary people will end up paying for instead.

[VNVObit]

While some people seem to like the idea of a Mansion Tax. Its electoral suicide in the south east. Labour proved that, its time to stop with a policy that punishes people for living in areas where house supply is low and demand high.

The very name of the Tax is misleading too. A Mansion in my mind conjures up a large 5-6 bedroom house set in acres of grounds. In London 2 million pounds will buy you a smallish flat in Knightsbridge.

London returned more Labour candidates this time round (largely at the expense of Liberals)

Tories on the other hand have policies that undermine the ability of others to provide affordable housing in the south east (and that doesn't seem to have damaged them)


Saw this on Channel 4 last night
While not a fan of Will Self do think he's right that the election was dominated by preying on people's fears

[gravy]

While some people seem to like the idea of a Mansion Tax. Its electoral suicide in the south east. Labour proved that, its time to stop with a policy that punishes people for living in areas where house supply is low and demand high.

The very name of the Tax is misleading too. A Mansion in my mind conjures up a large 5-6 bedroom house set in acres of grounds. In London 2 million pounds will buy you a smallish flat in Knightsbridge.

I don't think you really understand the proposal. You get taxed if you earn a lot and own a property > £2m, not if you're asset rich but income poor.

And if your house prices into that bracket you won't get taxed either.

And yeah, London is strong Labour

[defsdoor]

Saw this on Channel 4 last night
While not a fan of Will Self do think he's right that the election was dominated by preying on people's fears

Well I for one was scared shitless that another Labour government would ensure my great grand kids would still be paying for their recklessness. So much so I actually let my daughter vote.

Problem with that is the only words on the voting slip she recognised or understood meant we ending up voting for the Green Party.

[pogo]

While not a fan of Will Self do think he's right that the election was dominated by preying on people's fears

Yes, but it failed. Labour when not coming up with unworkable policies tried to spread fear of a Tory government (though they mostly thought a strong SDP showing would let one in, not they would win outright). But it didn’t work as their dire warnings had proved completely wrong before. Labour during the last parliament said that Tory policies would lead to higher unemployment and a second recession, but it didn't happen. We now have record numbers in work and the fastest growth in the G7 (having just overtaken France as 5th largest economy). So people were disinclined to believe Labour fear-mongering this time.

[pogo]

This is a follow up to my earlier post on PR: the BBC has done similar calculations and come up with a similar result,

They don’t seem to take account of small parties being excluded by cut offs, i.e. the Greens and SNP. But they get the same result which is a Tory + UKIP majority.