Trump

[Absolute_Zero]

My biggest fear, that Sanders would build his position by taking Ohio, has been allayed somewhat. Rationale: Sanders could never [imho] win the Presidential race, gifting it instead to whoever the Republicans decide upon.

OTOH, the potential prospect of a President Ted fills me with more dread than Donald J.

[pogo]

I don’t think you need worry about Trump or Cruz.

Ted Cruz: 28%, eight delegates
Donald Trump: 24%, seven delegates
Marco Rubio: 23%, seven delegates
Ben Carson: 9%, three delegates
Rand Paul, Jeb Bush: one delegate each.
Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich and Rick Santorum: no delegates

That is a very good result for Rubio. Essentially a three way ties, with the differences between them only worth a single delegate. Carson is another oddball who might hang on hoping to improve but the rest of them ? No chance.

Rubio should benefit in multiple ways from this. With such a strong showing and all the momentum he should keep picking up votes. The candidates likely to drop out are almost all mainstream whose supporters Rubio should help to collect. Most importantly all the money looking for a safe mainstream candidate to back now has one. Rubio is not perfect – he is more extreme than the average Republican and has flip-flopped a few times – but he is infinitely preferable to Trump or Cruz. He is electable for one.

The result also shows another odd feature of Iowa. It uses a form of PR. All early states do, the RNC has made them as the price for being early. At any other time Iowa would not matter. Candidates would focus on the larger states, and the ones with first past the post/winner takes all delegate selection. It’s only gets such outsized attention paid to it as it’s first.

[Absolute_Zero]

Silly me: Iowa not Ohio.

[pogo]

Back to the thread’s topic, this is especially fun, the length of Mr Trump’s fingers.

Why Donald Trump Will Always Be a “Short-Fingered Vulgarian”

It’s not so much the insult but his reaction to it, which shows how he is temperamentally unfit to be president, or in charge of much anything really.

[merman]

Before the caucus Trump tweeted that no-one remembers the person who finished second...

[pogo]

I alluded to this earlier but this really puts it in perspective. Trump of course has been very economical, relying heavily on Twitter and a media willing to report every outrageous statement. But at the other end of this scale is Bush who now is looking like a very poor investment to all his backers. Carson too must have spent a lot, which maybe explains how he has managed to stay in the race for so long - if anything Carson is even less qualified than Trump.

[PFVA]

All the fuss going with Trump accusing Cruz's campaign of irregularities and fraud should help the democrats further down.

[tufty]

Trump Donald!

http://trumpdonald.org/

[Mark]

Trump Donald!

http://trumpdonald.org/

Occasionally I forget quite how magnificent the internet can be.

[merman]

All the fuss going with Trump accusing Cruz's campaign of irregularities and fraud should help the democrats further down.

He's using a play from the Bush playbook - don't let them think you are doing badly even when you are.

Fascinating to see the demographics on Bernie Sanders' votes in Iowa - absolutely showing he is popular with younger voters, the generation that turned it's back after Bush "stole" the Presidency.

[pogo]

Ah Bush. Enjoy this while you can, he is not long for this campaign.

“please clap”

[andy_h]

That's Millibandesque.

[gumboot]

Jeb does seem to be one of the better-informed candidates. Doubtless most republicans are utterly bewildered every time he speaks, so it's little surprise they don't know when he's done.

[merman]

Jeb does seem to be one of the better-informed candidates. Doubtless most republicans are utterly bewildered every time he speaks, so it's little surprise they don't know when he's done.

But the GOP don't want an informed candidate.

He put the wrong punctuation on his posters. It should have been Jeb?

[pogo]

Jeb does seem to be one of the better-informed candidates. Doubtless most republicans are utterly bewildered every time he speaks, so it's little surprise they don't know when he's done.

He is no doubt very well schooled. He has been preparing for this for a very long time, as the candidate presumptive for many people. And he has backing him many of the people who backed his brother. There is a lot of experience for him to draw on.

The problem for him and all the mainstream candidates in the Republican base. After years of being told by their leaders that the problem is government they are rejecting any candidate with a whiff of governing experience. So mainstream candidates have been walloped by Trump, Cruz and Carson. Cruz is a senator who has spent his whole time wrecking the institution he is part of. Trump and Carson have never held elected office.

The expectation was that sooner or later these would falter, and a mainstream candidate would come to the fore. Unfortunately for Bush that has happened and it was not him but Marco Rubio that benefitted. He will hold on a few more days but unless by some miracle he comes second or third in New Hampshire on Tuesday he is toast and everyone knows it.