Trump

[KlaxonCow]

After years of being told by their leaders that the problem is government they are rejecting any candidate with a whiff of governing experience.

Indeed, telling society over and over that "there is no society" does present the risk that, one of these days, they'll actually start believing you. The law of unintended consequences and all that jazz.

[pogo]

Another debate last night. It was perhaps the most interesting so far. The candidates that had been struggling got their shit together did very well. Christie laid into Rubio very effectively, and so rattled him he ended up repeating himself three times with the same canned and irrelevant sound bite. The above is the four quotes all from the same debate. Kasich came across much better and if the Republicans had any sense they would nominate him as the candidate most likely to appeal to moderate independents. Even Bush did well, scoring points off Trump on eminent domain, one of the many things in his business record that should trip him up.

Problem is they are all competing for the same position, of acceptable mainstream candidate. They really need Rubio to collapse or drop out to leave the field open to them. Maybe one might manage a strong fourth or even third in New Hampshire this Tuesday to have a chance. But come fifth or sixth and they may as well call it a day.

Cruz and Trump had poor debates. Trump seems to be still struggling after his poor showing in Iowa, as his decision to sit out that debate backfired badly. With Rubio that means all three front runners did badly. But they are still expected to do well on Tuesday.

And of course Ben Carson was there, though why he is still in the race is unclear, he really has no way back from his collapse over the last few weeks.

[pogo]

There’s also this. The debate starts with them being introduced one by one, in reverse order of their polls which also determines their position on stage. So everyone knows when to leave, where they should go. They’ve all done this a bunch of times already so should be well drilled. But Ben Carson didn’t hear his prompt, or realise it was his time to go. He stood there like an idiot, others got caught up in it, and the whole thing went farcically wrong. Trained chimps would do it better.

[KlaxonCow]

The phrases "couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery" and "couldn't organise an orgy in a brothel" spring to mind.

[Darkflame]

This is all great comedy- satire, train wrecks, even some physical comedy here and there.

But anyone got any idea when the real campaigns start?

[pogo]

Perhaps the most interesting exchange last night was the one between Jeb Bush and Trump, on eminent domain. Bush was reminding Bush that he once tried to buy an old widow’s home so he could build a car park for his limos, going to court to try and force her to sell.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyl ... story.html

It’s interesting because it could do Trump a lot of harm. Trump tried to use eminent domain to get her home. Eminent domain is equivalent to our compulsory purchase, and is used for much the same sort of thing. But it has also sometimes been misused by governments in cahoots with private developers.

Typically the developer wants to build something: a shopping mall, an apartment complex, something like that. But someone is in the way and won’t sell. So they take it to the government, persuade them it’s going to improve the area and bring in tax revenue, then get them to use their eminent domain powers to seize the land and sell or give it to the developers.

But such schemes have often gone badly wrong. One famous one, the City of New London, made it all the way to the Supreme Court, after which they were able to go ahead and force residents out. But the project collapsed and nothing was built.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelo_v._C ... New_London

This could be toxic for Trump. Democrats will hate him for being a businessman stomping on ordinary people. Republicans will hate the use of government to interfere with private property. Expect his opponents to focus more and more on his business record, which far from being an asset could become a liability for him. And without it he has nothing, except an outsize personality.

[gumboot]

Did she build herself a killdozer?

[merman]

This is all great comedy- satire, train wrecks, even some physical comedy here and there.

But anyone got any idea when the real campaigns start?

Conventions in July to decide the candidates (and more interestingly, the veep candidates as they could be a major factor).

The "real" campaign starts in September.

[funkstar]

Shouldn't that have been "dispense with"? Or is that different in 'Murikah?

[pogo]

Yep, dispel.

So not only could he do nothing but recite his canned response but it’s not even grammatical. It’s worth watching the whole of the above video. It starts off fine but then Christie spots Rubio repeating himself and goes for the kill. Third time Rubio does it even the audience is getting tired of it.

[merman]

Had to laugh at the first result declared in New Hampshire. Trump second again.

[pogo]

Trump is expected to win with a clear margin of victory. The problem, for him and the Republican party, is he is expected to win with only 30% of the vote, while other candidates struggle to get 20%.

The thinking is that Trump’s support is unlikely to rise much above 30%, even among Republican voters. Still too many simply despise him for him to become candidate, never mind win the general election.

But they still don’t have a good alternative. Cruz came first in Iowa but is likely to do much worse here without the support of religious voters. And he has the same problem as Trump of appealing to enough voters to win in November.

Rubio looked like the best alternative, until his limitations were cruelly exposed at the last debate. The hope among the establishment is still that Bush somehow turns it around, but he is in three-way a scrap with Christie and Kasich. Essentially they are playing chicken, seeing who can last the longest as each knows if the other two drop out they will get a boost. But they are running out of time now the voting has actually started.

[gumboot]

Given how this went down, could goading Trump to get him to lash out at the audience become a regular thing?

[PumaG]

The global super elite aren't happy about Trump's popularity are they.

[Dio]

I suspect they're very, very happy.