Trump

[pogo]

Trump is only five years younger and will be the oldest elected president if he gets into office. By that logic it's an issue for Trump too. Which it isn't.

I think it is. Trump is a skilful speaker, or at least he has a certain way of speaking which impresses a large number of less educated people. But if you deconstruct what he says it’s “immigrants”, “Mexicans”, “Muslims”, “China” and women who don’t know their place. He’s your embarrassing grandad, set in his ways, railing against the modern world, trying to roll things back to when they were younger. He does not have any solutions, or at least not realistic ones. He just wants things to get back to when white men were in charge.

He has been challenged on his views but it has been easy to dismiss these challenges so far. He controls how the press reports him, feeding them outrageous quotes which dominate the headlines. And his opponents have been attacking each other, fighting for second place, or to be the last establishment candidate. But that will change when he is up against a single opponent, whether in the Republican primaries or in the main event. His age may not come up directly but up against a good opponent I think his age will tell. His dated reactionary views and lack of solutions will be highlighted, and he will be unable to come up with answers.

[Dio]

But so far he hasn't had a hint of needing to come up with answers. He just spouts enough crap to drown out any kind of serious debate.

[pogo]

There have been times when he has been challenged in the debates, and come out worse. But given the nature of the early debates it has not done much harm; they have 90 seconds to speak, 60 seconds to respond then the next question is asked. With six or more people on the stage it ends up just one of many highlights. This will change when there are just two debaters, whether Trump and Rubio or Trump and Clinton.

The other thing that will change is suddenly all his opponents efforts will be on defeating him. Right now Republicans are mostly scrapping for second. Not because they think Trump cannot be beaten, but because they do think they can beat him in a straight fight, they just need to get rid of the other candidates.

Cruz and Carson both look weak. South Carolina was supposed to be one of the deeply conservative states that Cruz could win, but he tied for second. If he cannot win here it’s hard to see how he can win overall. Carson should have dropped out weeks ago but seems not to care one way or the other.

That leaves Kaisich and Rubio. Both should gain from Bush dropping out. Rubio is stronger with conservatives such as in South Carolina, Kaisich with more moderate Republicans in states they will visit after this week in the south. If in two weeks it is down to three candidates then Trump’s 35% of the vote won’t look so impregnable.

[PumaG]

set in his ways, railing against the modern world, trying to roll things back to when they were younger. He does not have any solutions, or at least not realistic ones. He just wants things to get back to when white men were in charge.

But if you deconstruct what he says it’s “immigrants”, “Mexicans”, “Muslims”, “China” and women who don’t know their place

I agree all of his ideas are not workable, except they do already have a 'Mexican wall'


Current 'Mexican wall', built with a Black man as president.

approx 700 miles so far

[PumaG]

.

[pogo]

Clamping down on immigration from Mexico is just one of those things Republicans all promise. It’s tied into their “immigration policy” (the quotes as they don’t have one). Whenever immigration comes up they accept the need for a path to citizenship, or at least legalisation, for immigrants already in the US. But they say it must be tied to better enforcement, so more border guards, more fencing, more technology, no matter what is being done already. And the border enforcement must be done first.

Problem is their plans for reinforcing the border are so divorced from reality they will never happen. Which means real immigration reform will never happen. This suits them fine, at least in Republican v Republican contests as the Republican base is against immigration. But it loses them support among Latinos, the fastest growing group of voters in the US.

Trump seems to be trying a new tactic, not mentioning immigration reform at all, just saying he will build a wall. Never mind the cost as he will get Mexico to pay, which is ridiculous. This seems bound to go down even worse with Latinos than before, if he gets as far as being candidate.

[zip accident]

Trump seems to be trying a new tactic, not mentioning immigration reform at all, just saying he will build a wall. Never mind the cost as he will get Mexico to pay, which is ridiculous. This seems bound to go down even worse with Latinos than before, if he gets as far as being candidate.

Maybe he could ask Mexico to pay for it's citizens to become US citizens?

[gravy]

set in his ways, railing against the modern world, trying to roll things back to when they were younger. He does not have any solutions, or at least not realistic ones. He just wants things to get back to when white men were in charge.

Er... that wasn't me

[guythp]

But so far he hasn't had a hint of needing to come up with answers. He just spouts enough crap to drown out any kind of serious debate.

Isn't that politics, universally speaking?

[gumboot]

But so far he hasn't had a hint of needing to come up with answers. He just spouts enough crap to drown out any kind of serious debate.

Isn't that politics, universally speaking?

Yeah, except you're supposed to make some attempt at pretending you're not doing that. Somehow Trump gets away with not even pretending.

[pogo]

Trump in 2011, showing how his views on Muslims are not at all new (source):

Absolutely, yes. In fact I went a step further. I said I didn’t see Swedish people knocking down the World Trade Center.

And by the way, many, many, most Muslims are wonderful people, but is there a Muslim problem? Look what’s happening. Look what happened right here in my city with the World Trade Center and lots of other places.

What’s striking in this actually is how normal he sounds. He’s spouting hateful racist nonsense, sure, but he is speaking in normal sentences. He now wraps this in a showman’s cant which has much greater rhetoric effect, both at rallies and in debates.

[PumaG]

But so far he hasn't had a hint of needing to come up with answers. He just spouts enough crap to drown out any kind of serious debate.

Isn't that politics, universally speaking?

Yeah, except you're supposed to make some attempt at pretending you're not doing that. Somehow Trump gets away with not even pretending.

Uk politicians are experts at avoiding questions, drives me mad.

[PumaG]

Trump in 2011, showing how his views on Muslims are not at all new (source):

Absolutely, yes. In fact I went a step further. I said I didn’t see Swedish people knocking down the World Trade Center.

And by the way, many, many, most Muslims are wonderful people, but is there a Muslim problem? Look what’s happening. Look what happened right here in my city with the World Trade Center and lots of other places.

What’s striking in this actually is how normal he sounds. He’s spouting hateful racist nonsense, sure, but he is speaking in normal sentences. He now wraps this in a showman’s cant which has much greater rhetoric effect, both at rallies and in debates.

"Im not an expert on the Koran, theres something there that teaches a negative vibe" 'America is falling apart it's so politically correct'

There are far worse people and things said who can be described as hate preachers-racist and those are the ones who definatley don't speak in normal sentences, yet there are no words left for them now.
If Trump was trying to convert people to a hate filled ideology Id expect his voice to be raised and him talking more hateful towards others, but he's not. He's trying to sell a plan to voters in a democracy.

If the West was seeing predominantly Malaysian migrants, you wouldn't see the same comments like you see on your YouTube video for example, and those attitudes were there way before Trump's campaign. Theres no evidence Trump is changing the way American's think about Muslims in a negative way. on the contrary, the discussions that have come out of his campaign have raised awareness and the majority are speaking up for Muslim people.

You know Islam isn't a race. Muslim countries often have other religions who certainly run into 'problems' due to clashes with Islam.

In their eyes they are welcome to claim Christianity in the west has a problem, I wouldn't claim they're racist or hate filled.
Personally Id love to see a world with no religion at all, oops.. some will see that as hatred or racist,

Humans are greed driven, take away religion and theres always going to be issues you can't blame on race relations. The west has a greed and class problem and cultures do indeed clash.

Trump needs to go on a tour of Muslim countries and see how varied they are, his main crime is lumping most all into one, but the real hot topic here is immigration and the Muslim migrants to the west do tend to have the roughest and toughest backgrounds and many inevitably end up in trouble, they hardly start off on the right foot with criminal activity much of the way.

German attitudes have changed drastically towards migrants through real life events, not through one person or group 'spouting racist nonsense'

[pogo]

Yes, he’s tapping into a deep vein of racism that exists in the US, much as he did with his Birther claims. There was no rational reason to doubt Barack Obama was a US citizen, born in the US with one US parent, the same as Trump. This did not stop him and others making political capital out of it.

I would not be surprised if that has a lot to do with why he’s running. The striking thing about the Birther movement was how it was entirely evidence free. Most conspiracy theories start when something goes wrong, or something is hidden. But no-one offered any evidence that Obama was not born in the US. But still a lot of people believed it and still do. Not a majority, not even a majority of Republican supporters, but a large minority.

His policies seem designed to appeal to the same people. Or not even his policies as he does not have workable ones. He just has positions. Most Mexicans are rapists and criminals, most Muslims are terrorists, most Chinese are economic crooks. He has no evidence of these as they are all false. Nor does he have solutions as there are none, and his actual policies are fanciful.

But a significant minority of Republican voters lap it up. The same people mostly who did and still do doubt Obama’s nationality. He must have looked at that as a basis for running for president. It may not matter that he only has 1/3 or so of the Republican vote, as the rest of the vote gets split three or four ways and so no-one can challenge him. By the time two or three drop out it might be too late, he might have already amassed enough delegates to be unstoppable.

His greater problem is the November election. He is even less liked by Democrats and independents. Even if Republicans hold their noses and vote for him as their candidate I can’t see how he can win, especially now Clinton looks to have seen off Sanders.

[gravy]

You know Islam isn't a race.

Is that a useful distinction?

Judaism isn't a race but it didn't prevent a war waged on the precept it was.

If you want to wade in the pool of murky semantics it's probably worth understanding that the concept of 'race' applied to humans is scientifically discounted, there just isn't the genetic variation to justify it as a label.

So racism doesn't exist at all! Except it does but as a reaction to cultural difference.

Trump might not be shouting his head off but it's racism. And the most insidious sort. Shouty twats are easy to write off but Trump's pseudo reasonableness legitimises being a shouty twat if you can't see it for what it is.