Trump

[funkstar]

I want to comment, but, I'm wondering if I just have fundamentally misunderstood just how effective Trump can be, if you're not actually paying attention to what he's saying, as the electorate seems not to do. I mean, he looks forceful, people seem to listen, he's dynamic - but I just can't help listening to the words, parsing them, interpreting them, and finding them utterly deplorable.

Seriously, the latest bit of insanity from Trump was that Cruz's father was involved in the JFK assassination. Really! That happened!

[pogo]

Interesting to see what happens next. In theory the Republicans should all come together around their presumptive candidate, but it’s Trump, and there are lots of reasons not to support or endorse him.

* His repeated insults, uses of offensive language. Especially to other candidates who (Chris Christie excepting) must all now be looking at their pledge to support the eventual candidate and looking for a get out clause.
* His toxicity to other Republicans running for office. Normally all the candidates in other elections rally around the presidential candidate, but who wants to be associated with him and damage their own chances?
* The damage he will do to the Republican party brand, if elected. It might be better to save their efforts, let him lose and try again in four years with a decent candidate. Hilary Clinton is hardly popular and should be easy to beat, if she even runs again.

Will be especially interesting to see who he (and Clinton) picks for VP. Hard to see many people up for being Trump’s running mate. Anyone at all competent will think they have a better chance in four years time, so why damage their brand failing alongside Trump?

[gumboot]

Kasich, as I understand it, is going to carry on simply so that everybody has a fair chance to say no to Trump.

I wonder, though, if he knows something about what GOP is planning that requires him to hang around. Could they just change the rules to eliminate Trump?

Or maybe there's still a fair chance of Trump finding a way to destroy his own campaign.

[Cloudane]

America, stahp...

I used to think "I'm just saying what everyone else is thinking!" was nothing more than bollocks spouted by arrogant nutjobs in an attempt to justify their cuntish remarks, but it's like there's a grain of truth to it over there

[gumboot]

Kasich, as I understand it, is going to carry on simply so that everybody has a fair chance to say no to Trump.

Or not.

[pogo]

A bit of a surprise: would have thought this was exactly the opportunity he was waiting for.

Could be though Kasich was relying on Cruz to deny Trump a majority of delegates, after which he could have used his establishment links and better electability to win over delegates at the convention. But with Cruz out there’s nothing to stop Trump wrapping it up before Cleveland.

The irony is that if either of Cruz and Kasich had quit a few weeks ago, when Trump was still struggling around 40% support, then they could have given the other a clean run at Trump and seriously challenged him. Both staying in too long has doomed both their chances.

[Darkflame]

You know, if Trump said "only joking" in a week or two I wonder what would happen.

[gravy]

A bit of a surprise: would have thought this was exactly the opportunity he was waiting for.

Could be though Kasich was relying on Cruz to deny Trump a majority of delegates, after which he could have used his establishment links and better electability to win over delegates at the convention. But with Cruz out there’s nothing to stop Trump wrapping it up before Cleveland.

The irony is that if either of Cruz and Kasich had quit a few weeks ago, when Trump was still struggling around 40% support, then they could have given the other a clean run at Trump and seriously challenged him. Both staying in too long has doomed both their chances.

A bit but even if Kasich had dropped out and Cruz picked up all of his votes (unlikely) Trump would have still won Indiana.

We'd be exactly where we are now.

[funkstar]

I wonder if Trump offered the veep position to Kasich, in return for dropping out?

Also, Darkflame, weeks ago Trump claimed to be hamming it up, but quickly forgot about it...

[pogo]

A bit but even if Kasich had dropped out and Cruz picked up all of his votes (unlikely) Trump would have still won Indiana.

We'd be exactly where we are now.

That’s why I wrote “a few weeks ago”. Trump was still polling around 40%. Then after Wisconsin his share of the vote jumped to 50% or more.

Seems many voters decided there was no point trying to stop him any more and so decisively started supporting him. The Republicans’ arcane rules gave him a much greater share of the delegates, close to 100% in many cases. He became unstoppable.

[gravy]

I get your point. I'm just saying my made up view of what could have happened is more likely than your made up view of what could have happened.

[gravy]

I wonder if Trump offered the veep position to Kasich, in return for dropping out?

It'd help him in November for sure.

Kind of like having a bidet, classes the place up but no one is really sure what it does.

[pogo]

I get your point. I'm just saying my made up view of what could have happened is more likely than your made up view of what could have happened.

Who knows? The fun of this is it’s so unprecedented and unpredictable. Kasich for VP? Seems unlikely now but then you never know. Chris Christie seems more likely. Not only has he already endorsed Trump but he has crossover appeal to Democrats (being a Republican governor of a very Democrat state) and a much higher national profile.

But Trump does not need another liberal leaning NE loudmouth on the ticket. He needs someone to reinforce his support with Southern evangelicals. Ted Cruz for example. Except he is almost as unpopular as Trump nationally.

Eight years a similar dilemma led John McCain to pick Sarah Palin, and we all know how that turned out. Trump seems unlikely to make as bad a mistake but who knows? He does not seem blessed with much common sense and judgement, and will surely make the pick himself.

[gumboot]

It would be kind of unfortunate if Kasich really did drop out. It leaves a lot of people whose voice won't be heard at all this election; regardless of whether or not he has a chance of winning.

Well, unless they start protesting on the streets and shit like that, I guess.

[Dio]

All first past the post systems make really large percentages of the population voiceless.

I mean, here in the UK my vote is officially worth 0.1% of a vote, compared to the people in some marginal constituencies whose vote is worth literally fifty thousand or more votes of mine.

Yeah, I AM bitter.