Trump

[pogo]

Bill Maher has some fun getting very personal on Trump.

[Neon360]

Wow... he just threw both Clintons under the bus and probably made even more enemies by doing so, calling Bill Clinton history's worst abuser of women and that she enabled his infidelity. Really below the belt stuff...

[KlaxonCow]

Poor strategy. If it doesn't stick and Hillary deflects it, then he's thrown away - pardon the pun - a trump card far too early.

This is political premature ejaculation. It'll have lost currency by November, most likely.

[pogo]

An appalling strategy (if you can even call it a strategy). It did not especially damage Bill politically when it happened – it was seen more as a partisan witch hunt than a good use of government time and money. It did not damage Hilary at all; if anything she came out of it looking stronger for having risen above it.

So reminding voters of that will both strengthen her in many voters eyes and once again make Trump look bad his misogynism and for looking in the gutter for his talking points. He should instead address the substantive differences on policy between them. Except there he twin challenges of having incoherent policies and the debating skills of a 12 year old. So the gutter it is.

[zip accident]

An appalling strategy (if you can even call it a strategy). It did not especially damage Bill politically when it happened – it was seen more as a partisan witch hunt than a good use of government time and money. It did not damage Hilary at all; if anything she came out of it looking stronger for having risen above it.

So reminding voters of that will both strengthen her in many voters eyes and once again make Trump look bad his misogynism and for looking in the gutter for his talking points. He should instead address the substantive differences on policy between them. Except there he twin challenges of having incoherent policies and the debating skills of a 12 year old. So the gutter it is.

Blimey, the odds on a bet for Trump winning must be ridicoulously good.

Maybe the strategy is that bettors outnumber non-bettors?

[pogo]

The odds right now are in Clinton’s favour but far from overwhelmingly so. E.g. here:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics

It gives Clinton as 3/8, Trump 11/4. Roughly that means she has twice the probability of winning as Trump.

Most pundits though rate her chances much higher, and I think I agree. You only need to think back four or eight years, when Republicans put up much better candidates with much more reasonable policy platforms and they lost. The Republicans have not won the popular vote since 2004. Before that they last won in 1988. That’s twice in 30 years. And every cycle it gets harder for them demographically as the Black and Hispanic share of the population grows.

Clinton is unpopular but so was Obama in 2012. And Trump is the wrong candidate to tear down Clinton. She is quite old but so is he, and of the two showing it more. He calls her “crooked” but he is far more so in his business dealings. He can’t attack her on foreign policy as he is uninterested in it and ignorant of it. He has a particular problem with women: he simply does not think of them as equals so rapidly lapses into crude abusive sexism if challenged by a woman.

Trump is the Democrats’ ideal candidate. They have had months to prepare for him, a period that has provided them with a wealth of raw material to work with. Absent a collapse by Clinton I can’t see him winning.

[zip accident]

The odds right now are in Clinton’s favour but far from overwhelmingly so. E.g. here:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics

It gives Clinton as 3/8, Trump 11/4. Roughly that means she has twice the probability of winning as Trump.

No, it means twice as many bettors back her as back Trump. The odds and probability are only related though the agency of human bettors. As the odds against Trump rise, bettors will be attracted.

<edit>

I've a horrid suspicion that Trump is going to win on the basis of being less stupid than the average voter.

I could back that with money, and win either way. I don't bet, but it's still tempting.

The odds show how bettors are betting, and pretty much nothing else.

[Absolute_Zero]

I've a horrid suspicion that Trump is going to win on the basis of being less stupid than the average voter.

I suspect such suspicions are seeded in the same psychology that some satisfy by watching horror movies.

Objectively, major events notwithstanding, it's unlikely... as the betting odds show.

The odds show how bettors are betting, and pretty much nothing else.

Those committing their hard-earned are more likely to perform due-diligence.

The EU referendum is a decent example. The polls say it's close... the odds not so much. Leave offer uncertainty [esp. economic], Remain less so. Ergo, when it comes to the crunch the existing order should prevail.

[Baggypants]

I've a horrid suspicion that Trump is going to win on the basis of being less stupid than the average voter.

I suspect such suspicions are seeded in the same psychology that some satisfy by watching horror movies.

Objectively, major events notwithstanding, it's unlikely... as the betting odds show.

The odds show how bettors are betting, and pretty much nothing else.

Those committing their hard-earned are more likely to perform due-diligence.

The EU referendum is a decent example. The polls say it's close... the odds not so much. Leave offer uncertainty [esp. economic], Remain less so. Ergo, when it comes to the crunch the existing order should prevail.

Speaking of odds. Is anyone offering 5000:1 on Trump being President?

[KlaxonCow]

I suspect such suspicions are seeded in the same psychology that some satisfy by watching horror movies.

I don't know.

I think it's more rooted in the fact that when Trump first announced his candidacy, everyone would have said - and did say - that he'd most likely crash and burn, being out of the running within weeks. There wasn't even a thought that he might even win the Republican nomination, it was all betting on how long he'd last before pulling out. As an incoherent idiot, who apparently hasn't thought through any of his policies in any detail, even now, who likes to say xenophobic and misogynistic things every other sentence. when not mocking disabled people, would surely collapse within weeks, if even lasting that long.

And, well, look where we are now.

What fuels the current suspicions is that all the previous suspicions proved to be horribly wrong.

So even if you were really, really, really sure that Hillary should win, then you're not so sure that the American public really is seeing reality the same way you are to be at all predictable - otherwise, Trump would have gone long since and there's no way he'd be the Republican nomination - so you can't help but hold back and hedge your bets in the face of such worrying uncertainty that you have any idea what the fuck is actually going on here.

[Neon360]

So even if you were really, really, really sure that Hillary should win, then you're not so sure that the American public really is seeing reality the same way you are to be at all predictable - otherwise, Trump would have gone long since and there's no way he'd be the Republican nomination - so you can't help but hold back and hedge your bets in the face of such worrying uncertainty that you have any idea what the fuck is actually going on here.

I feel like our upcoming generation knows how much trouble we're in and going with someone like Hillary or most of the others, there just aren't going to be any boundaries pushed and it's going to be the same old shit. With that said, how most people probably see Trump is that he doesn't hold back, he doesn't tiptoe and in a world where everyone else has batshit crazy leaders, maybe the U.S. needs someone equally as crazy. I think he would actually get along with Russia's Putin, which would be a good thing. Everyone else? No idea.

Maybe the mentality is that if the world or state of of America is already so bad, let's push it overboard and burn. It's all-in do and or die. America really is in bad shape so he'll either really do a great job and turn things around while upsetting the rest of the world or we'll burn with ashes to remain resulting in the worst economical collapse the U.S. has ever seen. I can't picture a middle-ground outcome from a presidency with Trump.

You can imagine worse things happening to him possibly as a result. People always call Russians and other places crazy but I think Americans are just as capable of being truly insane. It's humans across the board, it's not really fair to put a label on any one region I suppose.

[Darkflame]

Its hard to argue lesser evil when the "lesser evil" is the one saying we should torture family members of terrorists (and similar remarks).
Its like we go from metaphorical evil to very littoral evil.

Trump supports I think, for the most part, must be suffering from some incredible cognitive dissonance to excuse or dismiss so much of what he says.

[pogo]

Speaking of odds. Is anyone offering 5000:1 on Trump being President?

Nope. Thing is I think his chances of becoming POTUS are very low. But the odds will never reflect that as if bookies started offering 10/1, say, then Trump supporters would pile in. As zip accident noted odds in any active market cannot be too far from the ‘wisdom’ of punters.

The reason is Bookies are risk averse creatures. They won’t offer 10/1 even if that’s Trump’s chance of winning, as if then many Trump supporters pile in there’s a 1 in 10 chance Bookies suffer massive losses. 3/8 and 11/4 therefore reflect the size of the groups thinking each will win. About twice as many think Clinton will win than Trump, and are prepared to bet on it.

5000/1 odds are going to be in very short supply now, after Leicester’s triumph. I don’t think Bookies lost much there either, with bets being few and small. But the Premier League is suddenly a lot less predictable than it was, and fans won’t again get a chance to play such long odds in such leagues.

[gumboot]

I think it's very hard to reason usefully about odds when the situation gets as improbable and horrific as this.

Anything anybody might do to try to shut Trump down only makes his anti-establishment position stronger.

[Little stoned kiwi]

I think he would actually get along with Russia's Putin, which would be a good thing. Everyone else? No idea.

I doubt it. Personal feelings about Putin and his leadership aside, he's a macho man's man. Putin would respect someone who can pin him to a Judo mat or go bear hunting.
Trump seems like a person who can't get along with anyone.