Trump

[Barney]

"Smalley"? Eh?

Mailmerge. Pogo's first name is "Smalley".

[merman]

Trump is not guaranteed to win the convention - a large groundswell of grass-roots Republicans calling for a "candidate of conscience"; the convention switching all the delegates to an alternative to Trump.

[gravy]

I think he will.

Otherwise the GOP is pressing the button for their own destruction.

It's in their interests to make it look tight and use that as leverage to have RNC picks for some key roles in his administration.

[pogo]

Trump is not guaranteed to win the convention - a large groundswell of grass-roots Republicans calling for a "candidate of conscience"; the convention switching all the delegates to an alternative to Trump.

Theoretically. The normal rules are that the first round of voting, most delegates are bound to vote for the candidates per their state results. After that if there is no clear result they can change their vote, and it becomes a bit like the way a pope is chosen with many rounds of voting. Because Trump won most of the delegates he should win first round.

But they can change the rules. The rules are decided on by a committee of the delegates, before the convention, and they can adopt whatever rules they see fit.

The problem though is the same as if Trump drops out. Who do they pick? There’s no viable candidate, anyone chosen would start the presidential race massive disadvantages. Especially if Trump tried to fight an attempt to displace him. There could be riots on the convention floor, court cases dragging out the decision for weeks or months after, even to the election.

[Darkflame]

Assuming its even worth them trying to fight for this election.
At this point its questionable if the republican party will be in a fit state by the next election, or even the one after.
Distancing themselves from Trump might end up be in their longterm interests even if it costs them this round.
In many ways its a opportunity to reinvent themselves. Kick trump out and anyone that cant bare part with him, then make a big show and dance about being the "new republicans" who believe in small government, but arnt raciest/sexists/bigots. Those are the other guys. The guys with Trump etc.

[KlaxonCow]

Otherwise the GOP is pressing the button for their own destruction.

Indeed.

But, as previously discussed, their eventual destruction - internally, demographically - seems pretty inevitable anyway. So, you never know, the party leadership might just take the approach of ripping off that plaster quickly. Get the pain over with. Move on to the recovery.

Although, yes, most probably, you're quite right.

[KlaxonCow]

it becomes a bit like the way a pope is chosen

Do they also have the white smoke too?

I like that bit. The surrealism of all the world's television cameras focussed on a chimney pot for several hours.

When they say that "God works in mysterious ways", they really weren't kidding about that one, eh?

[pogo]

But, as previously discussed, their eventual destruction - internally, demographically - seems pretty inevitable anyway. So, you never know, the party leadership might just take the approach of ripping off that plaster quickly. Get the pain over with. Move on to the recovery.

Not inevitable. Many within the Republican party recognise that they need to do more to grow their support outside of social conservative white voters. Only three years ago four Republican senators got together with four Democratic senators – the Gang of Eight – to come up with comprehensive immigration reform. This would have helped them in particular with Latino voters, 40% of whom voted for Bush only a few years before. Notably one of the senators was Marco Rubio, a Latinto himself, Republican senator of Florida and a presidential candidate.

It failed, as usual, due to the Republican majority in the House of Representatives blocking any serious immigration reform. It probably derailed Marco Rubio’s chances of becoming candidate – even if Trump had not happened Rubio’s close association with immigration reform made him too liberal for many Republican party members.

But after this election cycle, especially if they lose not just the presidency but also the Senate and House, there will probably be a renewed push. They might even try and ditch the Tea Party altogether, and rebuild the party around more traditional Republican values and policies.

[Darkflame]

it becomes a bit like the way a pope is chosen

Do they also have the white smoke too?

I like that bit. The surrealism of all the world's television cameras focussed on a chimney pot for several hours.

I used to like that, but now its hard to see a much difference between that and the US TV focusing on empty podiums - which the have done this election cycle.

[pogo]

"Smalley"? Eh?

Mailmerge. Pogo's first name is "Smalley".

I think it may be the opposite of “Bigly” – Trump’s fortune is big (or Yuge!) so his actions are Bigly. Anything his donors do is Smalley. Just to put them in their place. No, it does not make any sense.

Anyway, The Atlantic has more on his money situation: Will Trump’s Campaign Drown in Debt?

They make the point that if he wants to be repaid his $45m “loan” he needs to do it soon, within the next month. He cannot use any of the money raised after the convention to repay loans. He raised only $3m in May. Which may be why he is suddenly doing mailshots, to boost donations so he can repay as much as possible. It makes it even more likely that donations now will just go back to Trump to repay his loans. It also gives him a reason to stay in the contest until the convention, to raise as much as he can before calling it a day. Even though quitting then would be about the most disruptive time to do so.

He could of course just turn the loans into donations. He might have no choice. But the fact that he made them loans in the first place suggests he did not expect to be spending tens of millions of his own dollars on his campaign, and things have turned out much worse financially than he anticipated.

[KlaxonCow]

I used to like that, but now its hard to see a much difference between that and the US TV focusing on empty podiums - which the have done this election cycle.

That's 24 hour news for you.

(I saw a great argument before about how, in the "New Media versus Old Media" battle, that New Media's success is just as much down to the fact that Old Media had decided to commit suicide long before New Media even showed up anyway.

By concentrating on pointless celebrity gossip or following CNN with its invention of the 24 hour cycle of staring uselessly at an empty podium for hours on end, listening to "experts" gradually speculate their way to predictions of Armageddon as commentary on top of these "watching paint dry" visuals.

"Well, Chuck, there is the remote possibility that the President is really a lizard alien working for Satan in disguise... and, if that's the case - which it isn't, of course, but let's just pretend it is, as we've got an awful lot of time to fill here - let's spend the next 4 hours contemplating what that would all mean to the average American".

And that the gradual death of Old Media is as much down to them killing themselves off with this crap, as it is with New Media just offering a better deal. They chose to become this pointless watching-paint-dry tabloid crap all of their own accord, long before Twitter and Google and Facebook showed up on the scene.)

[pogo]

He’s due here tomorrow, or more precisely in Scotland, something to do with one his golf courses. I imagine he will be followed by both US and UK media, trying to get quotes from him.

[merman]

Trump has refurbished Turnberry.

None of the major golf bodies want to associate with Trump or hold a tournament at the course.

[pogo]

Trump forgives $50 million in loans to his campaign: Trump finance chief

That does deal with the criticism that he only wanted donations to repay his loans. Likely he is resigned to not attracting enough donations to be repaid anyway. But again, things are clearly not going as he expected. If he planned to give $50m to the campaign he could have done so from the start. Making them loans means he expected to get repaid, and so that he expected to raise far more than $50m in donations, enough to pay for the rest of the campaign and repay his loans.

Still though his campaign is broke. His loans/donations and donations from others have been spent, and he is raising money far too slowly. This does not fundamentally alter things, unless he is prepared to spend even more than $50m of his own money to refill his campaign’s coffers.

[Dio]

Although since they're quite happy to have other highly discriminatory courses on the menu it seems a touch hypocritical.