Coronavirus Pandemic

[Deckard]

I know this is probably the wrong place to say it but if it was Death or Boris in a you-know sort of way it would be DEATH every single time.

[Little stoned kiwi]

Supply chains collapsing, markets in meltdown, people panicking. I blame Brexit.

[cj2003]

Welcome to Denmark. We're closed at the moment and you'll find our residents in the supermarkets buying everything they can lay their hands on. Fighting over yeast and toiletpaper in order to avoid the corona virus.

[gilesgoat]

Just had a phone call from mum from Italy .. it's .. a bit surreal there .. everything closed, no one allowed save "exceptional reasons" to go out in the streets, everything looks like totally desert cities, you may see 4 cars going around in the whole day.

I think cases are still going up in Italy it's not slowing down yet.

[Rhythm]

I think cases are still going up in Italy it's not slowing down yet.

Yeah, still increasing daily at the moment: Linky

[phattslagg]

Well, I’ve decided to suspend peri lessons at one of the schools today, as the room I use is so small that the students and I may as well be breathing into the same jam jar.

[gilesgoat]

Update : ... friend of a friend of mine in Italy, she works in a hospital as nurse, started to have "suspicious sympthoms" at a level they tested her.

She should know results in some days .. now my friend is in a bit of panic because if she turns positive she has to be tested as well and she has elderly ( >70 old ) parents

So she's now avoiding contacts with her parents / everyone until she know what's the results of her friend ( that she's been in touch with ).

She's not very worried about her but she's worried about her parents, if they get infected it could be shit.

Fingers crossed results are negative.

[tufty]

I think cases are still going up in Italy :? it's not slowing down yet.

Yeah, still increasing daily at the moment: Linky

Good link.

If you look at the graphs, all the countries with links are seeing exponential growth.

The UK currently has 460 cases, which is where Italy was on the 26th of February. France has 2200 or so, which is where Italy was on around the 5th of March. Iran has 9000 or so, 2 days behind Italy. It was 2 days behind at the ~450 and ~2K marks as well.

The only country that appears to have hit the inflection point is China, but there's a huge zit in the graph at the inflection point which corresponds to the point at which they changed the way they were counting cases. I'll believe their graph has really inflected when the same thing happens elsewhere after approximately the same timelapse. if, like China, it's 20 days on from the 450 point, that means Italy should inflect sometime early next week.

[(o)(o)]

The only country that appears to have hit the inflection point is China

Right but they are the only country with that burned-in collectivism-mindset. People who are slavishly obedient in general and submissive to the CCP, there are few comparable nations affected by covid19 with that mindset to follow orders.. or get beaten and secreted off somewhere..

Even with martial law you would have a hard time keeping the public behaving like this in Britain!

So where will our inflection point be??

Some real draconian measures would need to be introduced, to prevent "it's a flu" Daily Mail readers from spreading the virus to one another

Hmmmm...

Never mind that the Tories are a Death Cult.. so of course their strategy, so I read today, is to work toward herd immunity!!! In other words, take exactly the opposite approach that anyone with a brain would deploy.

Maybe it's some insane fervor to destroy the NHS forever !!!

Regions are experiencing 10% of infected people in intensive care.

[tufty]

Some real draconian measures would need to be introduced, to prevent "it's a flu" Daily Mail readers from spreading the virus to one another

If sacrificing the Daily Mail's readership is necessary to avoid becoming a dictatorship ... well - sacrifices need to be made.

[PVB]

Some real draconian measures would need to be introduced, to prevent "it's a flu" Daily Mail readers from spreading the virus to one another

If sacrificing the Daily Mail's readership is necessary to avoid becoming a dictatorship ... well - sacrifices need to be made.

It’s not just them though, it’s everyone they have any contact with and then who those others have contact with, etc., etc.

Had a family friend say “it’s just like the flu, nothing to worry about!” the other day.
It’s really not!

[TFO]

Scotland to ban gatherings of more the 500 people...


Well at least the Scottish Premiership will be unaffected then

[gilesgoat]

Some real draconian measures would need to be introduced, to prevent "it's a flu" Daily Mail readers from spreading the virus to one another

If sacrificing the Daily Mail's readership is necessary to avoid becoming a dictatorship ... well - sacrifices need to be made.

It’s not just them though, it’s everyone they have any contact with and then who those others have contact with, etc., etc.

Had a family friend say “it’s just like the flu, nothing to worry about!” the other day.
It’s really not!

Well ... I had some "direct voices" from people in Italy working in hospitals .. .. it's NOT like "just the flu" I mean "you could be the super lucky ones that don't affect you that much" BUT if for whatever reason "it really gets you", you may be finding yourself fighting for your life and if you have "anything else condition" you may be on the losing side

So far "most" people the died had "associated conditions" .. still .. they died because of the combination of Coronavirus + that .. which would not have happened ( so soon ) without the virus ...

So yeah .. consider it could be like "I had some problem XYZ I am in treatment since years and I am fine" -> get the virus -> DEAD ! You see why it's not exactly "a normal flu" ..

It's a bit nastier than that ...

[KlaxonCow]

If you look at the graphs, all the countries with links are seeing exponential growth.

Well, one of them - South Korea - is interesting:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... uth-korea/

Because its graphs are looking like ogives with an inflection point around February 29.

Total cases is an ogive, daily new cases can be seen - with some wobble - to be generally declining. Active cases is also following an ogive. And the recovery outcomes have reversed direction from about the start of March.

Which fits mathematical expectations - and South Korea has no particular political reasons to lie - so these numbers are probably correct.

I looked up South Korea because I was watching a news report about how South Korea's strategy is basically "testing, testing, testing". They've ramped up their systems for testing and are aiming to diagnose early, isolate early and treat early.

Their strategy has been to jump on this as early as possible - to cut off the exponential growth before it even starts. Get people tested and into isolation and treatment as soon as possible.

Which is exactly what the science - the mathematics - suggests. And if these graphs are right, it appears to be working.

As is China's quarantining - though, yeah, more reason to not be 100% trusting the numbers are exactly right - but that also aims to do much the same thing of cutting off the exponential growth before it can happen too, but using a more "broad brush" blunt technique, as China does have a billion people to manage, and its government can do that sort of shit.

I have to agree with giles. Italy's got it bad, but it is doing the right thing.

The UK is more of a worry, as Boris and co seem more concerned about "economic impact".

Has no-one yet tapped Boris on the shoulder and pointed out that potentially having a million or more taxpayers / employees drop dead will be a way, way, way bigger economic hit than cancelling some concerts and sporting events for a few weeks?

[(o)(o)]

But before we give China credit here..