Coronavirus Pandemic

[Harlequin]

There was a photo of an article allegedly quoting Dominic Cummings saying that next year there would be a repeat of this infection with higher lethality, that's very silly

Not exactly my area of expertise or understanding, but a second wave is not uncommon. The most vulnerable to it is people who weren't exposed to the first.

Further waves are common in influenza pandemics. Are they with colds and other coronaviruses?

[KlaxonCow]

and possibly round two from around September depending how it reacts to warm weather

Unfortunately, the evidence for the idea that it might retreat in warmer weather is not great.

Because it's infected the Southern Hemisphere - Australia and New Zealand and South America - where the seasons are the opposite to us in the Northern Hemisphere. And it seems equally unfazed in tropical countries, where it's always hot and sunny all year round.

Influenza retreats in Summer, as it doesn't like the heat so much. But this one is so far displaying no such weakness, as this pandemic is not noticeably skipping a beat as it spreads to all latitudes.

I'd desperately love to say otherwise, but the numbers and graphs simply don't match that initial "hopefully, it'll be like the flu" presumptions.

In a sense, getting to the Summer is now more about just not having the NHS be also dealing with so many colds and flus at the same time. That the other standard problems start getting out of the way, to some degree, to concentrate solely on the real problem.


(One mad more optimistic "silver lining" here to consider is that what we're implementing by effective planet-wide lockdown is a generic anti-viral strategy. We're doing it for coronavirus specifically, but if, equally, no-one is passing on the flu or the common cold for a few months, then those curves will also be flattened implicitly too. Anyone getting the flu or a cold right now - first of all, they have my sympathies, because their first thoughts will be that they've got Covid-19, and until we get those antibody tests, they won't know that - will also be self-isolating at home and not spreading those viruses either. Unfortunately, those buggers mutate too often to be seen off completely, I fear, but this is also beating back other viruses at the same time. Yeah, I know, not the greatest "silver lining" ever, but it's something to ponder.)

[SuperMappy]

[Little stoned kiwi]

There was a photo of an article allegedly quoting Dominic Cummings saying that next year there would be a repeat of this infection with higher lethality, that's very silly

Not exactly my area of expertise or understanding, but a second wave is not uncommon. The most vulnerable to it is people who weren't exposed to the first.

Further waves are common in influenza pandemics. Are they with colds and other coronaviruses?

I have no idea, hence the disclaimer. It could be something that viruses do in general.

Meanwhile, I just read this: Coronavirus: new Covid-19 cluster identified in Matamata
It's a town near the city I live in. That's not what unnerves my though. There's a pretty graph plotting the cases discovered over time (I can't hotlink it as it's browser rendered vector graphic). The acceleration of the curve is fucking terrifying.

[Harlequin]

Meanwhile, I just read this: Coronavirus: new Covid-19 cluster identified in Matamata
It's a town near the city I live in. That's not what unnerves my though. There's a pretty graph plotting the cases discovered over time (I can't hotlink it as it's browser rendered vector graphic). The acceleration of the curve is fucking terrifying.

I am afraid that such curves are, sadly, pretty standard. See those at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus.

[(o)(o)]

There was a photo of an article allegedly quoting Dominic Cummings saying that next year there would be a repeat of this infection with higher lethality, that's very silly

Not exactly my area of expertise or understanding, but a second wave is not uncommon. The most vulnerable to it is people who weren't exposed to the first.

Further waves are common in influenza pandemics. Are they with colds and other coronaviruses?

It was the second year of the Spanish Flu that was the most brutal IIRC

Massive doses of Vit C by IV are being trialed in NY :

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/new-york-hospitals-treating-coronavirus-patients-with-vitamin-c/?fbclid=IwAR04yXi7ElCbuXpd3Az-CSxMu6c5OgJ_K-bHHWFTV-Nr7xiy91yD6zsnsJE

[Harlequin]

There was a photo of an article allegedly quoting Dominic Cummings saying that next year there would be a repeat of this infection with higher lethality, that's very silly

Not exactly my area of expertise or understanding, but a second wave is not uncommon. The most vulnerable to it is people who weren't exposed to the first.

Further waves are common in influenza pandemics. Are they with colds and other coronaviruses?

It was the second year of the Spanish Flu that was the most brutal IIRC

The earlier stages of the later waves of both that and the 1889 outbreak (both had at least three waves) were apparently nastier than the earlier waves. Unlike the first SARS, MERS[*][/size] and some colds, however, influenza is not caused by coronaviruses.

Massive doses of Vit C by IV are being trialed in NY :
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/new-york-hospitals-treating-coronavirus-patients-with-vitamin-c/?fbclid=IwAR04yXi7ElCbuXpd3Az-CSxMu6c5OgJ_K-bHHWFTV-Nr7xiy91yD6zsnsJE

Hmmm...

The vitamin C is administered in addition to such medicines as the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine, the antibiotic azithromycin, various biologics and blood thinners, Weber said.

I suppose that there might be nothing to lose in trying large amounts of vitamin C alone or with some other drugs. High doses of hydroxychloroquine can be fatal, though, and some doctors are already complaining of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine shortages where they are required to treat other illnesses with known clinical effectiveness.


[*][/size] The disease potentially most dangerous to Yak as it is caught from camels.

[F-ZeroOne]

I'd be careful about the Vitamin C; it comes up a lot in many alt-med and conspiracy theory "Modern Pharma is BAD [1], try this instead!" claims. No idea about the credentials of the doctor in question but previous claims about what it can do - and who makes those claims - make me cautious.

[1] "Flaws in aircraft design does not mean magic carpets work." - Ben Goldacre.

[Cloudane]

There are a heck of a lot of ideas going around that are probably bogus and one should be very wary of anything potentially dangerous (like gargling bleach!!) but to be honest things like "eat a lot of hot soup and fruit because heat and vitamin c might help" won't do any harm and probably have some benefit even if it's just the mental health one of keeping people busy and giving them a bit of optimism. It's actually one of those times when I could even see the point of religion (if it was about faith rather than killing people) as I'm sure there's some substance to the idea that a positive mind has physiological benefits. The idea that if someone is kind to others then a bearded ghost in the sky will look after them, while bollocks, at least seems to give people comfort and motivation. It's just a shame about all those who use it as reasons to kill.

[gilesgoat]

There are a heck of a lot of ideas going around that are probably bogus and one should be very wary of anything potentially dangerous (like gargling bleach!!) but to be honest things like "eat a lot of hot soup and fruit because heat and vitamin c might help" won't do any harm and probably have some benefit even if it's just the mental health one of keeping people busy and giving them a bit of optimism. It's actually one of those times when I could even see the point of religion (if it was about faith rather than killing people) as I'm sure there's some substance to the idea that a positive mind has physiological benefits. The idea that if someone is kind to others then a bearded ghost in the sky will look after them, while bollocks, at least seems to give people comfort and motivation. It's just a shame about all those who use it as reasons to kill.

Gargling bleach well .. bit like to say "chloridric acid kills the virus! Let's gargle it !" .. yes .. kills the virus AND you ...

However "soup and SOME vitamin C" will maybe NOT kill the virus BUT can keep you more healthy .. keeping your whole body in a good state it's never a bad thing.

[(o)(o)]

I'd be careful about the Vitamin C; it comes up a lot in many alt-med and conspiracy theory "Modern Pharma is BAD [1], try this instead!" claims. No idea about the credentials of the doctor in question but previous claims about what it can do - and who makes those claims - make me cautious.

[1] "Flaws in aircraft design does not mean magic carpets work." - Ben Goldacre.

I just wrote some stuff but.. snip...

I'd say be equally "be careful" with Pharma and claims made by doctors - a lot of phrama is just arse wrapped up in "regulatory dressing" to keep the cash flowing into someones pockets. It's a deep topic and I want to say wrt this case.. 'if you can't patent it there's no money in it'!! But just to be absolutely clear.. the treatment here is IV

I'm not planning to start using oranges and lemons intravenously

[F-ZeroOne]

Many of the bloggers etc who write on the subject are among the first to point out that there are issues with what is usually referred to as "Big Pharma" - its one of the reasons I included the Ben Goldacre quote in my post.

But another point about Vitamin C - whenever its mentioned being used as a treatment in this way, its almost always "massive doses". I'm in no way a medical expert but if Vitamin C is that effective than don't you need lower doses?

[tufty]

What are you, some sort of homeopath?

[(o)(o)]

I think this thread needs a cleanse.

[Little stoned kiwi]

But another point about Vitamin C - whenever its mentioned being used as a treatment in this way, its almost always "massive doses". I'm in no way a medical expert but if Vitamin C is that effective than don't you need lower doses?

That's hard to quantify without a number. I'd expect a massive dose to be 2000mg a day. Your body doesn't create or store vitamin C and will dump the excess in your urine. It can't hurt to try. Having too much is going to be more optimal than not enough.