Coronavirus Pandemic

[gilesgoat]

*SNIP*

.. all that could be summarized in "BUT BUT BUT .. you mean the government should have to act RESPONSIBLY, guided by REASONING, really CARING for THE PEOPLE, ALL THE PEOPLE , using LOGIC and GOOD SENSE ??!!"

WHAT SCI-FI MOVIE ARE YOU LIVING IN ??!

If that would happen, we would NOT be here with this virus in the first place, we'd be all happy and nice and things would be better.

As it is, we are writing all this, here

[Dio]

Which will be horrendous. A nightmare to manage and communicate clearly and the bottom line is that 'relaxing' any restrictions is akin to sending troops over the top to test the strength of the enemies artillery.

I think the backend of this could be worst than the start.

The key inflection point will be when the government turns off financial support for furloughed staff and it'll remove the choice of people to continue isolating if they still feel at risk and if mistimed will just fuel a second peak.

Yeah, there's a long way for this to run yet.

[Daniel]

IF those bloody antibody tests worked reliably. Come on, science, pull our arses out of the fire one more time.

As I've said before, as long as the false positives are reliably always zero (and it never registers some as having antibodies when they don't), we can tolerate false negatives because everyone's in lockdown anyway and all that does is keep them there, where they would be anyhow. It's not ideal for getting the economy back on track, but it doesn't cause harm.

I can create a test that live up to that spec really cheap. Want it?
Here is the source code:

Code: Select all

bool hasAntibodies() {
    return false;
}

Edit: My point is that any useful test is going to suffer from both false positives and false negatives. It is often possible to control the ratio between them to a large degree, but pushing one of them down will force the other one up (and often exponentially so).

[(o)(o)]

Far be it from me to defend a Tory, but "and I say this with love", commenting on people's physical appearance is a bit cheap (he doesn't look particularly unhealthy, just perhaps his genetics don't predispose him to being pinned to the inside of many teenagers' locker doors). It wasn't nice when people were doing it to Ed Miliband, and as tempting as it is to do it to someone we think deserves it because they're the political opposition, we could probably do better. Same goes for the common tendency when it comes to Michael Gove among others.

A poor choice of people to white knight, perhaps, but the left does get accused of hypocrisy from time to time

OOoooohhh.... Am I a "lefty loonie" now Cloudane ??

Why the fuck do they take advice from a raggardly looking ostrich for an excuse of an obedient dong head like this?

If you posted this anywhere else than this 'safe space' you'd rightly get torn a new one.

What ya gonna do? SAY something Sticks and stones and all that. You forget :

1. I am an Artist
2. I am an anarchist
3. Maybe we don't share the same sense of humour - it's your "right" to be offended - but I know my intent is clean so I don't care!

BTW Usenet was safer space for me. I could (and did) bite back unrestrained lol. FYI I know of two former regulars here (who you would recall) who expressed very clearly in PMs that they were leaving this place exactly because of the Lord of the Flies atmosphere, and how they were harassed over nothing significant and nobody came to their defence.

It's interesting to see people looking for the political angle, and who to blame, in this thread. Out in the wider world this isn't so much the case. I know of three healthcare professionals <snip>

BUT Healthcare professionals are screaming out for answers and challenging ministers directly and on the cusp of refusing to work surely you have seen this?

I think government ministers should be held accountable for their actions when they cause mass death. Do you not?

There is IMO a serious case for Misconduct in Public Office here, and I've discssed it with a <major newspaper> journalist. Max sentence life term.



Whilst civil servants are supposed to be apolitical, they are not compelled to be devoid of ethics. IF Whitty is "as great" as people are saying here; then he CANNOT be architect of the shambolic British response to COV19 (and some hint that he IS the architect, eg the Emeritus Prof (woohoo!! status) head of PHE), and should therefore resign on ethical grounds as civil servants do - eg permanent secretary and civil servant in charge of no-deal brexit.

[Space Cowboy]

@Klaxoncow : ok they did not start early, they started late, ok they done something, maybe not the best but they done/are doing something.

The question still remains "how/when all this is going to end ?".

Yes, indeed, accepting that they did already fuck this up very badly by starting far too late, how / when is this going to end now?

Swedish epidemiologist Prof Johan Giesecke thinks the UK government's initial approach was the correct one and changing our approach, in line with other countries - but not Sweden - was the wrong thing to do. Who to believe, KlaxonCow or someone who knows what they're talking about.

Definitely an interview worth listening to.

[merman]

My wife Alison had to be rushed to the ICU yesterday with breathing difficulties...
She had developed a blood clot on her lungs.

They tested her for coronavirus just in case, and it was negative.

BUT THIS IS WHY WE NEED TO STAY IN LOCKDOWN.
The NHS won't cope if the virus keeps spreading, and no amount of shoddy Dyson ventilators will make up for it.

[(o)(o)]

If we follow current models.

Economically we are heading for a major, global, depression. Resulting in great suffering.

There is absolutely no need for this.

When you acknowledge the potential of a PARADIGM SHIFT in economics.



https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/04/08/modern-monetary-theory-resources/

[(o)(o)]

Swedish epidemiologist Prof Johan Giesecke thinks the UK government's initial approach was the correct one and changing our approach, in line with other countries - but not Sweden - was the wrong thing to do. Who to believe, KlaxonCow or someone who knows what they're talking about.

A proponent of the herd immunity theory.

Here are some of his opinions (just like arseholes, everyone including Professors have one) :

The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
The paper was very much too pessimistic
Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
The results will eventually be similar for all countries
Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
“Certain” that at least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden have already had the disease

Who to believe !?

https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-ep ... om-sweden/

[Cloudane]

Best wishes for her merman


Re: Tesco, not gonna lie, it's really given me that "speed ticket worry" where you know you'll be spending the next 14 days hoping and praying not to get any consequences for what you just did. Went for the weekly-ish shop this afternoon and pardon my French but it was fucking carnage. Yes they were making people queue outside for a bit but I really felt like this was a veneer to "be seen to be doing something" - once inside there were way too many people allowed in to stand a cat in Hell's chance of social distancing, no one was following the one way system and no one was keeping their distance. I had a home made mask on for what good it does (primarily they help protect others in case you have it and don't realise as you're asymptomatic, rather than being a protection for yourself) but it didn't feel particularly safe with us all passing each other in the aisles just a couple of feet away etc. No one cared, everyone was happy to just get up close because they HAVE to get to the beans NOW, not 2 seconds later when you've had a chance to get out of the way.

What can you do? Delivery slots are rare as rocking horse shit, and we need to eat, and need to be able to afford it.

[Ratsoap]

Best wishes for her merman


What can you do? Delivery slots are rare as rocking horse shit, and we need to eat, and need to be able to afford it.

We have been finding various smaller places that will deliver. I guess we are lucky to be in a major city, but we get milk deliveries once a week. We can order a veg box on demand, and we have deliveroo, which now has co-op and M&S food, you can get the basics (including wine!) delivered within the hour.

[Rubisco]

I had a home made mask on for what good it does (primarily they help protect others in case you have it and don't realise as you're asymptomatic, rather than being a protection for yourself)

That's bullshit made up to stop people panic-buying masks the NHS needs. Of course any barrier between the lungs of the infected and the lungs of the susceptible will help to some extent.

Watch the advice change as we get tooled up to produce enough for everybody.

[KlaxonCow]

Who to believe, KlaxonCow or someone who knows what they're talking about.

A false dichotomy.

Because, of course, it's not just me on my lonesome who's saying these things. And neither is Prof Johan Giesecke the only person on this planet who knows what they're talking about.

And it's not a binary distinction. I'm sure there are points that I'd actually agree with the Prof about here and there, and vice versa if he ever read some of my long posts, even if we're not at all agreed on the overall policy. We can agree on the demonstrable facts, for sure, exactly because they are demonstrable.

You want to create a political conflict here, but you just won't get one. Because, sorry, that's not how the scientific method works. And I'm not the "leftist" you probably erroneously think I am.

We're supposed to disagree. We're supposed to reason it out. Seriously, that's the bit that's so much fun. And that's how the truth is eventually found - bring all the ideas to the table and may the best one win by merit of being actually true.

And if I'm wrong then bring the evidence to me and, if it is convincing, then I'll concede and change my mind. Of course, I'm human, so I'll perhaps dance around a little to hide my embarrassment. But bottom line is that my chief concern is being correct. If you can convince me that I was definitely wrong about something, then I will change my tune. I guarantee it.

Oh, by the way, "argument from authority" is also a logical fallacy too.

[VNVObit]

Best wishes merman

[Little stoned kiwi]

Watch the advice change as we get tooled up to produce enough for everybody.

I here China might pull the plug on exporting PPE any day now.

[Whiteball]

So what exactly is that meant to be saying?
That testing is the key? Notice it doesn't show they amount of infections, just the figures that show the story they want it to?

According to health professionals in Germany, they say the biggest thing that is keeping the death rate down is getting people on ventilators much sooner and long before they become really critical. Nothing about testing more or getting people in hospital sooner because they were tested.
Just people with bad symptoms being taken in, treated and put on ventilation sooner rather than later..

Correlation isn't causation
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

It's all too easy for people to get carried away and lean towards their biases without even realising it sometimes.
These are unprecedented times and people would do better spending their time just trying to get through this rather than whipping up mass hysteria and pointing fingers...