Coronavirus Pandemic

[Harlequin]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52685487
Of course, I'm sure Mr. Trump knows the Manhattan Project took pretty much four years, based upon decades of prior research. Not to mention that the delivery system (the B-29 bomber) took nearly as long to develop.

"Operation Warp Speed"? A week or so ago it was Star Wars; now it is Star Trek. When will they make up their minds?

[gilesgoat]

This is dangerous and I have a horrible feeling we'll end up back in March again with nothing to show for the past 2 months of lockdown and impending economic catastrophe.

Oh, there'l be plenty to show for it.

For starters, the death toll and economic catastrophe will no longer be the government's fault for dropping the fucking ball in the first place.
Next up, they'll be able to claim that lockdown has failed and they should go for the herd immunity they've always wanted
This will lead to collapse of the NHS, which they can then hand over to their friends in the private sector
There will be an economic catastrophe, but it will blot out the effects of Brexit
Tories and their friends will pick over the bones of UK PLC.

I'm not suggesting that any of this is deliberate, but that's he way I see it playing.

By the end of next month, the two sides must formally announce whether or not talks will be extended.

Brussels expects the UK to say 'No'. That has been the oft-repeated message out of Downing Street. Expect then an announcement in Brussels and in London that they will begin stepping up no-deal preparations, as they head into an autumn of fraught negotiation.

[PFVA]

I'm not at all surprised the UK is heading rapidly towards R1 again (if not there already). ...

Nationally we are (data of yesterday) at 0.97 with the region of Lisbon and Tagus Valley slightly over 1 and yesterday they announced deconfinement will continue. Restaurants will re-open Monday with the max number of people reduced by 1/2. Beaches will re-open on the 6th, and the max number of people will be decided beach by beach. If too many people insist in being at a particular beach they'll just interdit that one. Shopping centers re-open June 1st, except for the food courts. Economics is taking precedent over risks but there is also the question that people may refuse to continue on lock down for long.

[merman]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52685487
Of course, I'm sure Mr. Trump knows the Manhattan Project took pretty much four years, based upon decades of prior research. Not to mention that the delivery system (the B-29 bomber) took nearly as long to develop.

"Operation Warp Speed"? A week or so ago it was Star Wars; now it is Star Trek. When will they make up their minds?

Trump's Space Force has a flag.
Since he first announced it, Netflix has written and filmed a parody comedy series based around a US Space Force...

[Cloudane]

I'm not at all surprised the UK is heading rapidly towards R1 again (if not there already). ...

Nationally we are (data of yesterday) at 0.97 with the region of Lisbon and Tagus Valley slightly over 1 and yesterday they announced deconfinement will continue. Restaurants will re-open Monday with the max number of people reduced by 1/2. Beaches will re-open on the 6th, and the max number of people will be decided beach by beach. If too many people insist in being at a particular beach they'll just interdit that one. Shopping centers re-open June 1st, except for the food courts. Economics is taking precedent over risks but there is also the question that people may refuse to continue on lock down for long.

Will be interesting to see how that goes.

There is of course always the issue of balancing the deaths from the virus vs. the deaths caused by economic collapse (we have enough street homeless already who struggle through the winter). It comes across a bit “never mind the deaths there’s money to be made” but, I guess, that’s what makes the world go round...or flat...

[PFVA]

And the race for the return of the tourism is on

Italy will reopen its borders next month as it moves to end one of Europe’s longest and strictest coronavirus lockdowns in time for summer.
Both regional and international borders will open on June 3, with the government putting an end to the mandatory 14-day quarantine for anyone arriving from abroad.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/16/italy-re ... -12714674/

Greece reopened their beaches this weekend and Germany us negotiating with them and a couple of other countries the re-opening of the borders. I should mention that Greece has so far a very low rate of Covid with 2819 cases and 162 deaths (16 per 1 million inhabitants)

[Harlequin]

"Operation Warp Speed"? A week or so ago it was Star Wars; now it is Star Trek. When will they make up their minds?

Trump's Space Force has a flag.

I am shocked!

+ =

Since he first announced it, Netflix has written and filmed a parody comedy series based around a US Space Force...

Oh! John Malkovich!

Sadly, Fred Willard died yesterday.

There is of course always the issue of balancing the deaths from the virus vs. the deaths caused by economic collapse (we have enough street homeless already who struggle through the winter). It comes across a bit “never mind the deaths there’s money to be made” but, I guess, that’s what makes the world go round...or flat...

Unless the global economic system is entirely rethought. That seems unlikely to happen for at least another decade or so, though.

[KlaxonCow]

And let's not forget Terry Nation's subtle dig at Roddenberry's militarised "utopia" of Star Trek in "Blake's 7", by also having a "Federation" - with a logo knocked 90 degrees over - that was anything but benign to its citizenry:



Sorry, but I'm a "brown coat" through and through, so I must insist that you can't take the sky from me.



(Which was, really, the American version of "Blake's 7", if you think about it. Though Whedon decided to call his one "the Alliance" instead.)

[Dvorak]

Restaurants will re-open Monday with the max number of people reduced by 1/2.

Same here. We're doing this since Monday now, and today the GF and me had our first lasagna/cannelloni at a local Italian. Felt extremly well I must say.
New infections per day seem to stay well below 1k with a current rnaught of 0.88.
Ment, I actually could enjoy my cannelloni. At a restaurant. With people.

[gilesgoat]

Restaurants will re-open Monday with the max number of people reduced by 1/2.

Same here. We're doing this since Monday now, and today the GF and me had our first lasagna/cannelloni at a local Italian. Felt extremly well I must say.
New infections per day seem to stay well below 1k with a current rnaught of 0.88.
Ment, I actually could enjoy my cannelloni. At a restaurant. With people.

.. you are doing it all wrong ...

Given the situation you should have learnt to cook your won lasagna/cannelloni at home , that was the opportunity to do it !

Now seriously "how can it be safe in any form" to have N people in an ENCLOSED environment ? That is the part I don't get it, distance my work "in open spaces" but once you are all "closed in a room" and air you breathe in/out circulates I don't know how safe it is ..

We get some takeaway yesterday, the first one after 2 months or so .. but it's been "a touch and go operation" done wearing mask/gloves putting the containers in a sealed bag, coming home, taking the food out without touching it, blasting it 3 mins in a MW , sealing and throwing away the containers, washing gloves hands and all the rest.

At least for the first time we had a curry house curry BUT there is still NO FRAKING WAY I'd stay eating whatever in a closed space surrounded by N people "potentially carrying virus" around for 1 hour or so ! You mad !??!!

That's why I still can't see all this working .. unless you say "screw it I am taking risks to get infected" ?

[edit] - I AM NOT having it "about you" in particular But I am "taking advantage" of this post to state a thing.

HOW IN THE FUCK all this "social distancing and all the crap" can possibly work like that, in a closed space ?

I can understand "to an extent" in the open with the wind, where we assume there's some air circulation really "carrying stuff away" before it hits another person.

I can partially understand all this story about masks .. that to date it's still not 100% clear to me "if they really protect to inhale the virus" and I don't really get the "they don't protect you about INHALING it but only EXHALING it" so someone can tell me "how does it work one way only" and "how comes I could still get it" ?

So I have to admit to me "it all starts to feel a bit like those atomic bomb pamphlets propaganda" where they were saying "paint your windows white, put cushions in front of the glass, make a makeshift shelter with your furniture and duck in".

Because "the more you think logically, the more it looks like that".

I THINK "the only thing that really worked" was/is the lockdown "stay at home" because it prevents people getting in touch with other people, anything else .. I don't know, or the virus is really "not the much transmissible" or as soon as more people is out we are all super fucked ?

I am waiting "a bit more" to see what happens, because "whatever the government has said so far" DID NOT AT ALL made me feel "safer" nor gave me the impression "they do not know what they are doing/saying" .. also 0.88 .. "big deal" .. ok is <1 but JUST ABOUT ok that even that could be exponential but I think "it's still not so safe".

Give that :

- there's no cure yet
- there's no vaccine yet
- we don't know really that much about it
- if you really are unlucky you may get it and end up in intensive care with a non 0% probability to die and/or come out "in not a very good state"
- they are still experimenting shit

I would not take it that lightly !

[Whiteball]

It will keep spreading but just not with the same rapid exponential rate I presume?

We had someone at work who lives with a person who has been tested positive. They isolated for a week and have now had a test themselves and been given the all clear. They return to work on Monday.

Despite my protestations, they say it is safe as the original person is not infectious after seven days.
I can't believe just because you test negative one day, you won't catch it the day after and have a false sense of being 'in the clear'.

I'm probably going to walk out.....

[gilesgoat]

It will keep spreading but just not with the same rapid exponential rate I presume?

We had someone at work who lives with a person who has been tested positive. They isolated for a week and have now had a test themselves and been given the all clear. They return to work on Monday.

Despite my protestations, they say it is safe as the original person is not infectious after seven days.
I can't believe just because you test negative one day, you won't catch it the day after and have a false sense of being 'in the clear'.

I'm probably going to walk out.....

If it keeps spreading it means you MAY get it .. and it means you MAY end up in a medically induced coma for N days with a respirator that WILL cause some sort of damage to you !

Do you want to end up like that ???

[edit] - if you managed to get it and pass through with "not big deal" you *MAY* be actually a lucky person and you *MAY* be one that could re-get it again MAYBE "with less problem" .. MAYBE .. we DO NOT know that for sure NOR if you can not spread it again.

So "we return back to herd immunity" or shit like that ?

Is it really going to work ?

[KlaxonCow]

So "we return back to herd immunity" or shit like that ? Is it really going to work ?

Let's count the ways in which it could fail miserably.

1. Mutations.

Mutations are random. Random when it occurs, and random as to how it mutates. The more people who have this, the greater the probability of a mutation - in a similar way to how the more Lottery tickets are bought, the more likely the jackpot will be won by someone. Even unlikely events - of low probability - can become commonplace, when there's millions of individual instances of it.

It's worth noting that we know this virus has already mutated. Three main types, 30 different strains. It's believed that, actually, China got off so comparatively lightly because the virus has become more contagious since leaving Wuhan for the rest of the planet.

So when we say "the virus might mutate", it's already done it a few times and will keep on doing it. But as mutations are random, then a mutation might, in fact, do absolutely nothing or even make the virus less problematic, just as much as it could make it nastier.

Thus, what we're talking about - what we're focused on here with regard to wild "herd immunity" - is the idea of a mutation that changes the virus in a way that undermines any "herd immunity" already built up.

If the virus alters in such a way as for the immune system to no longer recognise it as the thing it's previously fought off, then "herd immunity" is reset to zero again.

1a. Because, basically, everyone's become "herd immune" to type 37 of the virus, but now it's mutated to become type 38 and no-one's immune to that, so all that "herd immunity" that was built up can just vanish - and we're starting again - from a mutation that goes in the wrong direction.

1b. The other problem is that any vaccine or successful drug treatments might also not work - or not work as well - on a new variant. So all our research could be "reset" by an unfortunate mutation or two.

1c. Without suppression, as we're going for "herd immunity" instead, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy that this thing will become globally endemic. And then - like the 'flu or its cousin, the common cold - mutations become inevitable and it comes back every year or two, and we'll never be rid of it. And, like the 'flu, a vaccine is only good for the current strain and we'll be forever trying to "guess ahead" as to what the dominant strain will be to prepare a vaccine ahead of time - and we'll inevitably get the guess wrong sometimes, as predicting the future is, of course, fundamentally impossible.

2. Immunity vs. resistance.

We don't know that those who've had it are necessarily "immune" to getting it again. Even if they are, we have no idea how long that immunity lasts. And we don't know how strong it might be - indeed, is it genuinely "immunity", in that you can't suffer it again, or is it more "resistance", in that it can be caught again, but the body's just more prepared for it, as it's encountered it (or a mutation of it) before?

We also don't know that, even if someone's immune to the virus, that doesn't actually potentially turn them into a "Typhoid Mary" for everyone else - Typhoid Mary herself, you see, was naturally immune but she carried on working as a servant in many households, spreading it. It didn't affect her, but she was carrying it and giving it to everyone else (and, most worryingly, actually knew this - she'd worked out that she was the common factor - but carried on regardless).

2a. If those who've had it are merely "resistant" rather than "immune", then "herd immunity" doesn't work. Indeed, it would be "herd resistance". Which would help - in a "better than nothing" kind of way - but would not guarantee that it can't spread at all, as immunity would.

2b. If any immunity is short-lived - let's say you're good for 2 months only - then is it possible to reach the required 60+% of the population having immunity simultaneously? As new people gain immunity, others lose it - and at no point do you have more than 60% of the population with it at the same time. It might simply be practically impossible to reach the target.

2c. And if those who've had it can still carry it and spread it - even if it does not affect them personally - then "herd immunity" doesn't work either. You need that 60+% of the population to act as a "block" for the virus to get a foothold anywhere. But if it can, in fact, continue to be carried and spread by those who personally have immunity, then it's not blocking anything.

As a WHO scientist had it, "let herd immunity take care of itself". You don't aim for herd immunity. You aim for suppression and elimination. And, if you fail then, well, eventually 60+% of the population gets it and we naturally end up with "herd immunity" anyway. It's an inevitable conclusion. The default position. The null hypothesis.

IF wild herd immunity is even possible - let us remember that four other coronaviruses cause the common cold. Where's the "herd immunity" for that one, eh? All of us, no doubt, have had the 'flu at some point. How's wild "herd immunity" working out for the influenza virus?

You get the gist. There's every possibility that this one forever defies "herd immunity" and it's simply impossible. That we can't find a vaccine - or, like 'flu, we can develop vaccines for specific strains, but then have to keep making them and handing out "flu jabs" every year, as the thing mutates far faster than we can respond to it. And the flu jab requires guesswork - they have to guess which flu strain is going to be the problem ahead of time, in order to get it ready in time for when it hits for "flu season". These guesses aren't always accurate.

Also, with the 'flu, it has the good grace to retreat in Summer. We don't know this one does that. There's reason - from the fact that this has spread in tropical climates, as well as the Southern Hemisphere, and really doesn't seem to have lost its potency in these climates at all - to be very suspicious that maybe this one, unfortunately, doesn't do that. Or the effect of Summer heat does cause it to retreat - but not nearly enough to be useful.

So, hopefully, you're getting the gist of the basic problem with "herd immunity" here. We have no idea if it's even possible. It depends on things that we don't yet know are even true.

There are multiple ways in which a wild "herd immunity" plan can fail miserably. That you take "the sacrifice" - in lives, in economic pain - and then find that, actually, you're genuinely not a single inch better off than you were before.

Whereas, lockdown works. We've seen that. And, logically, it cannot fail to do so - if no-one goes near anyone else at any point, then it becomes a physical impossibility for it to spread.

Not that we practically can do so but, at least in theory, if every country on Earth simultaneously pushes the numbers right down to "no new domestic cases" for two weeks - call it three for good measure - then, actually, as the virus cannot exist outside a host, then that would be the definition of its complete eradication. It would be extinct.

If no-one has it, then no-one can catch it. Again, this is logical - tautological - so it cannot fail to be true.

If you have sufficient testing to catch cases, then you trace all their recent likely contacts and isolate them, then you can keep a lid on it. This is like a "targeted lockdown", if you will. Instead of keeping everyone away from everyone else, you do loads of testing and chasing down of possible people it might have spread to, in order to test them, and chase it down, so then you can actually potentially allow most people to meet most other people - as they don't have it - and then just laser focus on those who do have it, or could have got it. And, well, put out those fires as they happen.

Don't wait two weeks for it to come to us, but go after it and try to catch up with the "wave front" and isolate people before it can spread any further. South Koreas did that aggressively and actually got their outbreak under control, without need for an official lockdown at all - so they've also proved that this one, done right, can and does work.

Wild "herd immunity" - the "do nothing" non-plan - has many different ways in which it can fail miserably, prove unachievable and simply not work.

Whereas, lockdown - when properly implemented and maintained - cannot logically fail. And we know this is true from precedent - pretty much everywhere in the world has stopped the wild exponential growth and "flattened the curve" and is going into decline when maintained long enough, thanks solely to lockdown.

We know this works. We have absolutely no idea if any other non-plan, like "herd immunity", is even possible and there's many ways that wild "herd immunity" could very easily fail miserably, as I've started listing above.

[merman]

So for the last few weeks we have had endless comparisons between how the UK is shaping up to,other nations. That stopped suddenly when we went over 30,000 deaths.

Last weekend Boris's big blustery speech was all about keeping the R down. Now the R value is rising again, apparently the R value is no longer the most important measure.

And while 400+ people a day are dying and new cases still register over 2000 a day (that has been a pretty steady rate over the last month despite lockdown) how can we think of re-opening?

The Government won't even reveal the scientific advice it is using to say it is safe for some schoolchildren to go back to school - when there are at least five cases where a teacher in a school open to the children of key workers only has become infected.

Of course newspapers and Michael Gove start attacking "militant unions", when the whole point of a union is to ensure its members are safe at work.

[merman]

Oh, and get this. Leading fee-paying schools including Eton say their pupils are not going back until September. But we can herd all the poor kids back into state-run schools - or the hideous number of Academy-run schools that are outside local education authority control.