Coronavirus Pandemic

[Rhythm]

Looking over the new bill that's being put through today. Enforces masks, vaccine passes and mandatory vaccines for frontline NHS workers.

The last one is being met with all sorts of scorn and I never really figured out why until I saw Unite's official rejection of this.

Lots of woolly stuff in there about "people will have unreasonable expectations of safety" (is that a bad thing?) and commenting that even the WHO doesn't recommend mandatory health-worker vaccinations.

But then we get to the real meat of it. The fact that mandatory vaccines will hit frontline worker counts. And that it might make it harder for new hires. On the face of it, this doesn't sound like a problem - why would you even want to have unvaccinated nurses or anti-vax porters? But when you look at the current staff shortages (100k open vacancies right now for the NHS, and that's only to get them to Tory levels of staffing) and consider that the NHS was already suffering when the Tories got into power 11 years ago, this is obviously causing concern.

So the jist is that "you shouldn't mandate vaccines within the NHS because they're already mega-fucked and putting non-vaxxed staff onto a blacklist will make it worse"

And that fucking *sucks*. I lost my dad thanks to shitty NHS practices (Hep C and blood transfusions) - the idea that things have been allowed to deteriorate to the point where the NHS *has* to accept any old worker... that doesn't feel great. It's the equivalent of saying "yeah, this guy has 16 points on his license and he's a really shitty driver but because you have logistics issues let's give him a truck"

If I were a Unite worker, hearing my union advocate that my colleagues are allowed to put me in just as much danger as my patients.... that wouldn't be a great feeling

[merman]

Blame eleven years of Tory cuts and underfunding, and the continuing whispering campaign from the press saying the NHS is overwhelmed and not doing enough.

Truth is, the NHS has gone far beyond what could reasonably be expected of it given the state the Tories have left it in. Nurses doing hour upon hour of unpaid extra time every week. GPs scrambling to adapt to new ways of working - and giving over 100,000 extra appointments last month compared to November 2019. Ambulance staff stuck in long queues outside A&E waiting to admit patients, unable to get to enough calls.

And the vaccination programme has only been a success* because of the NHS and thousands of volunteers, despite all the conflicting advice and dumb moves like announcing a ramp up in numbers without warning or extra resources.


*relative to other countries we are now behind most of Europe and still haven’t reached 95% getting a first dose.

[KlaxonCow]

NO, from my understanding is "WORSE THAN THAT" is "Call US to request to be vaccinated ( and get an appointment ) OR we'll NEVER call you".

That's worryingly confusing.

As that's at odds with what press articles and the NHS website says, where the Welsh government has reportedly said "wait for your appointment, as we're working through everyone by priority order".

Like, that BBC article says:

Instead its official advice is to wait for your appointment, with health boards giving priority to older adults or those in an at-risk group.

And I also looked on the Welsh NHS website and, yes, this is what's officially there.

But if that's not actually true, then everyone's going to be waiting around for something that's not going to happen.

Yeah, this "improved" system isn't improved at all, is it? It's not clear what's going on. I mean, you got through on the phone and got the appointment, but even you don't sound like you still really understand what's happening, even after all that, either.

[gilesgoat]

@Klaxoncow

The fact is, if we count "6 months since last shot" we are overdue about 1 week.

But SOME sources says that "with Astrazeneca decay" then we coud/should be "3 months overdue".

The fact is, "because it takes time" last time we received communication of "you should have an appointment for" well over 2 weeks in advance.

Also considering "you may be really busy that day you may need to cancel/change date" the previous times they were sending you a letter quite some time before and you have time to get in touch with them to confirm/etc.

This time, everywhere we asked "nobody really knew precisely what should have happened" .. some told us "you should receive communication at home", the surgery told us "they were not sure BUT if we did not get anything 'within a few days' to call a certain phone number", which is what I did.

In fact we were at first convinced "sure they'll send us a letter home like last time" .. but we kept checking and checking and we never seen this letter coming.

Then we had the possbility to get the FLU shot and we knew that our surgery USED to do Covid vaccination so we did ask them .. and their reply was "we don't know really how it should work".

It got me the impression that "if we did not proactively tried to get in touch with someone heck knows IF/when we would have been contacted".

MIND YOU IN GENERAL ! IN WALES, FOR WHATEVER YOU NEED you have to pester remind people "a certain number of times" about what you need/was looking for and/or contact "various possible sources" for .. long time .. until you'll find the right one ...

DOES NOT REALLY MATTER how much/if you have money or not, you could be millionaire you still won't find "soon" what you need in Wales ...

You will eventually find the people but it's NEVER going to be a straight route, unless is totally, absolutely, PURE LUCK !

[gilesgoat]

Just checking last news "before to go bed" .. I've seen this Covid vaccine: People told to travel 100 miles to register overseas jab ..

There are currently only 16 sites to register an overseas vaccination in England.

Without registering, overseas vaccines are not recorded on the national system so people cannot book boosters or prove their status using the NHS Covid Pass.

I WAS WORRIED about "the same thing may have happend" while going to Italy a while ago ... .. turns out "worries NOT, WE HAVE A SPECIAL FORM FOR THAT" .. and not only that .. "you do it online" .. there's even an APP .. THAT WORKS ! .. you provide the documents they ask you and some scans or pics .. you wait 24 hours and if all is OK ( it is if you provide the documents ) .. you get registered in the Italian thing as well

Must be said "I was incredibly suprised" like in Italy they managed "quite quick" to put up an online system for various things that actually does what it says on the tin.

Sometime they get something right

( Mind you the "NHS" system I dare to say is "highly computerised" in Italy since quite a number of years "you can do a lot" online nowadays ).

[edit] - I mean as I was vaccinated in UK and needed to "prove" that in Italy so to get the Italian "Green Pass".

[KlaxonCow]

MIND YOU IN GENERAL ! IN WALES, FOR WHATEVER YOU NEED you have to pester remind people "a certain number of times" about what you need/was looking for and/or contact "various possible sources" for .. long time .. until you'll find the right one ...

I don't think that's Wales specifically. That's just the UK in general.

[Ollie]

Christ, I'm glad I got my booster out of the way last month before all this shit blew up.

[Little stoned kiwi]

I can't get my booster before six months since the last vaccination, which will be the end of January. Auckland's lockdown border was removed today so they can now travel around the country. After Christmas and New Year I expect the country to be going to hell in a hand-basket at my five-month mark. Totally miss-timed it.

[merman]

I can't get my booster before six months since the last vaccination, which will be the end of January. Auckland's lockdown border was removed today so they can now travel around the country. After Christmas and New Year I expect the country to be going to hell in a hand-basket at my five-month mark. Totally miss-timed it.

It’s almost like the Aussie politicians got bored and shifted to the “we have to live with it” phase.
But it’s bad timing considering the problems they had with the vaccination program (the Aussie-developed vaccine failing for one) and the emergence of Omicron.

[Little stoned kiwi]

Our situation is politically driven. The government failed to eliminate Delta so Auckland has been in lockdown while they scrambled to get the country double vaxxed and hastily produced a local travel passport.
Auckland was promised they would be allowed to travel for Christmas, and they will en masse. International borders will be open in April.
Our medical system is not going to be able to cope with what's coming.

The decisions are based around business, politics, and what voters think they want.

[rowan]

Having decided to defer my booster until post-Christmas, today I changed my mind and wanted to get it done ASAP.

Managed to book one tomorrow AM in the next town.
20 mins later my doctor's surgery contacted to say "hey you can book it here now"

I actually managed to do that with an appointment 40 mins in the future.
Downed tools, went in, queued for ~15 mins and had it done+dusted within the hour.

Then spent ages queuing on the government website to cancel my tomorrow one.

giles: regarding AZ longevity, I reiterate my test results :
1st AZ jab, I started to return positive antibodies. 3 months later that was negative.
2nd AZ jab, I started to return positive antibodies again. 3 months later that was negative.
I expect there will still be some protection but not enough for what they are looking for to classify positive test result.

Today I had Pfizer. My next test is this Saturday, that may be too soon to return positive antibodies, we'll see.

[KlaxonCow]

Are you sure about that?

Pretty sure.

Because studies were made on antibody longevity from natural infection: 3 months.
Extra studies were made on antibody longevity from the vaccines: 3 months.

Then we have:

giles: regarding AZ longevity, I reiterate my test results :
1st AZ jab, I started to return positive antibodies. 3 months later that was negative.
2nd AZ jab, I started to return positive antibodies again. 3 months later that was negative.

So, as you can see, people who're actively testing their antibody levels: 3 months.

Also, if you remember, back when the vaccination programme started, there was some initial controversy as the government wanted to extend the gap between first and second jabs.

Pfizer had actually done their trials 21 days apart, and actually came out and announced that, as they had no trial data for doses being more than 21 days apart, they could not endorse nor recommend the government's policy to extend the gap (and understandably so, in that if shit had hit the fan from extending the gap, then Pfizer were just making it very legally clear that, like, "not our fault" because it was the government who was deciding to change the dosing, against their recommendation, and therefore they cannot be held liable for the consequences of others misusing their products).

Anyway, what did they extend the gap between doses to? 12 weeks... or, in other words, 3 months.

It's been 3 months throughout. The only exception to this was between the second dose and the booster, where it was 6 months. 6 months of Boris declaring "Freedom Day" and removing all restrictions and declaring that we're never going back to restrictions again... and generally acting like, and sending the message out, that "it's all over now". And boosters originally were only going to be for the most vulnerable groups - and when they first talked of boosters, they were talking about the Autumn (to prepare for the coming Winter). Well, that schedule slipped, as we're only a few weeks away from the end of the year.

Consistently, it's been 3 months. Throughout. And that's just, as rowan confirms, a directly measurable fact. That's, on average, how long antibodies stick around for. So, you know, regardless of government policy or media chit-chat, that's what it ought to be by the science - if we want to keep antibody levels up and active - and I have heard immunologists and doctors actually say so.

So, you know, short of being a Covid expert and immunologist myself, I'm about as sure as you can be.

The figure has always been 3 months throughout - based on, you know, the reality that actual studies and tests show this, again and again, as being the average time it takes for antibodies to wane away - except for that one period.

You know, that one period where "Freedom Day" politics were involved, and England - ALONE - threw off all restrictions (but note that the Scottish and Welsh and Northern Irish governments consult with the same experts and SAGE group as England - so why did they not throw away their face masks, while Boris was so keen to please his rebellious backbenchers - you know, the folks who voted down the latest legislation (but it got through because of Labour support for trying to do the right thing) - and Boris was making promises he could not guarantee about "never going back to restrictions"?

I would contend because Boris was trying to make a political show for his backbench rebels, while Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland were actually listening to what the scientists and SAGE were actually saying.

(And I bet if they did not depend on Westminster to hand out the money, they would have gone for 3 month boosters already - we already saw an example of that with the "firebreak" lockdown, where Boris wouldn't do it. But Drakeford, in Wales, wanted to do it and asked Westminster for extending furlough to cover it. But Westminster refused. Nonetheless, Drakeford went ahead - knowing it was needed - and put Wales in a 2 week "firebreak". When he'd first suggested the idea, he'd said "2 or 3 weeks". He would have gone longer, but as Westminster refused the funds, he went for as long as Wales could independently afford to go. Then, in a nice little backstab, Boris went into a "firebreak" shortly afterwards and, of course, happily funded furlough, when it was England. So we've seen this political dance where Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have wanted to go further - following the science, as it was the scientists who called for a "firebreak" - but they can only go so far without Westminster funding, and Westminster controls furlough, and so forth. Fair play to Drakeford, in that he went ahead with as much "firebreak" as the Welsh budget would allow, in spite of Westminster refusal. And he was ultimately right, as England ended up having to follow suit - now for 4 weeks, because when you delay in the face of exponential growth, it takes longer to get it under control and back down again).

Yeah, I'm pretty sure. The 6 month gap was politics and not science. Indeed, when boosters were first muted, everyone talked about Autumn, not December, so the schedule slipped, even from what the politicians themselves originally said.

And, hey, hindsight is 20 / 20. So I can definitely say that it should have been 3 months. If it had been - as originally planned and promised - then the whole population would already have that 70% protection from Omicron that we're rushing to get by jabbing everyone in a massive rush. And, by now, we'd be on second boosters - a fourth jab - in the face of Omicron rising, to have even better protection again (because, though there are diminishing returns each time, more jabs does refine the immune response a little bit more. So we'd have 70% protection already, working to top up the antibodies, ready for Omicron, and giving ourselves even higher protection levels).

It should have happened. I'm sure of that. And, looking at the facts, why it didn't happen seems drenched in politics and Boris wanting to declare "Freedom Day" to his backbenchers.

Anyway, as cases approach 80K, the "tsunami" is hitting. Deaths are 165 - but that, regrettably, is not out-of-the-ordinary for the UK, since we've been stuck plateauing for months - only country that really looks like that on the graphs - since "Freedom Day" was declared.

That's the number to look at. Deaths always lag cases. The hope is that number does what we saw on the South African graph - that it doesn't follow cases, as Omicron has lessened its lethality. The "crunch" moment has arrived. Has Omicron weakened itself for transmissibility or not? We're about to become the guinea pigs that are directly going to find out, one way or the other.

[merman]

Have a Christmas party but mix carefully... yeah, that’s going to work. Even the Queen is cancelling her pre-Christmas dinner to reduce risk.

[Harlequin]

Even the Queen is cancelling her pre-Christmas dinner to reduce risk.

Yet again providing the leadership by example that our elected "leaders" cannot be bothered with.

[k345y]

Even the Queen is cancelling her pre-Christmas dinner to reduce risk.

Yet again providing the leadership by example that our elected "leaders" cannot be bothered with.

Sure, she's a shining light. I'm pretty sure she'll still have staff in to cook and serve her Christmas dinner. Salt of the earth the queen is