Coronavirus Pandemic

[KlaxonCow]

In a sense, we've all been lucky that Omicron has weakened.

Because it's evading double jabs, even a booster is not amazingly effective (70% protection is good, but that's still 30% - almost 1 in 3 - where it's not effective) and, apparently, even if you're protected there's evidence that you're still a transmission vector. And it's spreading at ridiculous rate.

If the virus hadn't decided to lessen its lethality and had actually strengthened its lethality, then we'd have been massively fucked right now.

[Kelloggs]

Further to your point, KC; I'm coming at this from a very shallow and only-tangetially-acquired genetics understanding, but I'm choosing to think that there are only a certain number of mutations that could have taken place before the virus became non-viable (in the strict sense, i.e. non-reproductive) and Omicron has rolled a critical hit on all of the transmissible ones, leading to the pathogenic ones being downplayed - almost as if you've got a number of character points to distribute among your attributes in an RPG, and players who go for speed and spellcasting can't then wield a hammer the size of a bus. Don't forget; if a virus could be said to "want" something, "wanting" to reproduce and spread widely would have to be considered a reasonable evolutionary target.

Tangential understanding again here, but I think if there was a future mutation (that was viable, so that's a hurdle to overcome in itself - but if it wasn't, we'd never know about it) that was more dangerous but traded some of the transmissibility for it, then even in populations with no prior Omicron experience, Omicron would out-compete it. (In populations with Omicron experience, the Omicron antibodies may tip the balance further one way or the other, depending on cross-immunity between variants.)

I'm choosing optimism regarding the pandemic. I think this will be the end of it, possibly within a few months. What I'm pessimistic about is that we've dropped lucky, and luck is only better than skill if luck is reliable - we could have been a lot more unlucky, and even this thing has killed a massive number of people. We've ended up with something as transmissible as measles (except we've got decent vaccines against that) but with the pathogenicity of a mild cold in a lot of cases. If SARS-CoV-2 had a genome which could have supported this level of transmission as well as, say, Ebola's potential for killing people, I don't think anyone would be left to discuss it with - I have no reason to believe we'd have (collectively) handled things any better in that case than we've done in this one.

(Also, I'm desparately trying not to imply that I think a virus has made a choice - as I understand it, they would be physically incapable of such behaviour. If it looks as if I have, please assume I've perpetrated a thinko.)

I think we've got a fifth common-cold coronavirus here, to add to the four we already know about. Thank fuck.

[PFVA]

Well, I have been "Modernized" 2 hours later than it was scheduled. Don't ask. The computer system was down, a long line as a result, over 1 hour standing...

[Cloudane]

Optimism? Ooh, dangerous

Let's hope so. But indeed we need to scale down on some of those nasty farming practices I believe before we end up encouraging another. One bit of cautious optimism is that veganism appears to be growing which in turn gives more options and affordability for going down that route. I'm as imperfect as most people and still consume animals and animal products but that is gradually and progressively reducing as better and better alternatives become available. Which is fine as if we all flipped a vegan switch overnight there would be a heck of a lot of redundant cows!
And if we rely less on animals then this may be good for helping to slow down climate change too, though it will take a long time and be too late for many but at least it may help depending on the eco friendliness of alternatives.

On the less optimistic side I get the impression the rise of veganism is mostly a Western thing. As long as countries like China are knocking back bats and dogs and anything that moves at a phenomenal rate there is still plenty of risks of pandemics.

[tufty]

even in populations with no prior Omicron experience, Omicron would out-compete it. (In populations with Omicron experience, the Omicron antibodies may tip the balance further one way or the other, depending on cross-immunity between variants.)

It's looking fairly hopeful at the moment, with omicron's high transmission effectively stomping out the seemingly more dangerous delta. Whether that will be enough to stop covid in its tracks is another thing, as omicron is also massively increasing the pool of infection and thus increasing the chances of another viable variant replacing it. As it stands, it's looking like omicron will have infected 50% or more of the global population in the very near future, and that's a massive pool of potential mutations.

[Cloudane]

Yeah this is where a hope that "skill points" pseudoscience holds water heh

The idea of it mutating to be more transmissible than Omicron and more deadly than Delta doesn't really bear thinking about...

[PFVA]

About my experience this morning

I know tha t if the computer system is down there is not much they can do but I'm not sure if it's very safe to have all those people waiting. Because of the rain, wind, and cold they have this plastic tunnels on the outside and people wait inside them. Actually part of the time inside, part outside before we get to the tunnel. Yeah people are wearing masks and they are about one meter from each other. Then you get into a waiting room where over 100 people (I counted meanwhile I was waiting) are sitting about a meter from each other. I know this is was in part caused by the computers being down and people with appointments arriving and starting to pile up but I don't think it's a very safe way to do it . On a positive note the inside room has a good ventilation system and the plastic tunnels have openings along the way but it seems a contradiction that you say only one person per each 5 square meters inside stores and shopping centers and then we see this kind of thing.

The blue plastic tunnel:

The Blue Tunnel

[Kelloggs]

Yeah this is where a hope that "skill points" pseudoscience holds water heh

The idea of it mutating to be more transmissible than Omicron and more deadly than Delta doesn't really bear thinking about...

Please don't take that as a literal thought of mine regarding RPGs - it was only a hopeful analogy on my part. However, something I've been thinking about is that the genome of SARS-CoV-2 is about 38kB in size if converted to binary (RNA will be base 4, rather than base 2, but it can still be considered as "bulk data") so if you rule out the potentially many mutations that will stop it stone dead, although it might still have a large possibility space to play with, it will still be finite - maybe, evolutionarily, Omicron is "as good as it can get" for this virus.

[Cloudane]

Yeah not taking it seriously hence "pseudo-science" but I like the thinking

It is said that it can only mutate so much, and all fingers crossed that "much more deadly and much easier to spread" is outside of its limit...

[PFVA]

So far almost no side effects of the Moderna. A little bit of tiredness yesterday late afternoon and this morning. In anyway yesterday I didn't have my stroll, I just watched some telly. Odisseia had a lovely show about goats and how they can be wonderful pets just like dogs or cats, and then there was another program about sheep and wool. Very relaxing to watch.

The arm swelling has been very small too, and practically no pain. With the 2nd dose I had a lot more probs but that may be because we were having a heat wave, and hot sun and swelling is a bad combination.

[Cloudane]

IRL bestie finally got it (surprised it's taken this long! He's not shy about getting around and only single jabbed)

Apparently about 5 days of a rough cold with the usual hot/cold thing so I'd say the vaccine probably did its job in terms of T cells etc.

[SuperMappy]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 777871001/

Can the world end now please?

[Rhythm]

Partner managed to catch Covid after being double-jabbed, and now she's got pneumonia despite being jabbed for that. Awesome work all round

and fucking hell, pneumonia doesn't seem fun

[Harlequin]

and fucking hell, pneumonia doesn't seem fun

It is not, IME. It is the only thing I have ever been a hospital In-patient for.

[KlaxonCow]

Ominous milestone.

Thanks to an Omicron surge in many countries, global daily cases has broken a million.

1.2 million, which is actually quite a significant leap from the previous record of ~900K daily cases.

But, despite this, the global daily deaths hasn't really budged - and continues on a very gradual decline, in fact. Although, yeah, we need a few more weeks to be sure that all these new cases aren't really leading to more hospitalisations and deaths.

And, really, the big thing with Omicron is to see it in the global perspective - recognising that there are many countries that cannot mount grand vaccination campaigns, like the richer nations can - and that if Omicron is less lethal, even amongst the unvaccinated / under-vaccinated, then that's really what we need. As, on a global level, there'll always be some people who'll be unvaccinated / under-vaccinated through poverty.

Because, you know, this is a global pandemic and we need to recognise that even if we're doing awesome in our own countries, then we can still be knocked sideways by things going horribly wrong elsewhere. E.g. Omicron comes from South Africa.

(But I will give politicians some slack that it really is a near-impossible call. Do you keep doses for your own population in case of a surge, or do you donate any excess to poorer nations? Because that is also in our collective interest, to make sure that the virus doesn't simply set up its "breeding grounds" in some other nation, which'll then come back to us in the future. I couldn't make that call either. Because it's essentially "futurology" - guessing what might happen - and there's no way to know if you're actually doing the right thing or not. That said, the logic, therefore, is that we should all "hedge our bets" a little. A little of column A and a little of column B. If we don't know which future is coming, at least we can be half-prepared for both? And, certainly, if things get back to a significant decline, then start shipping the excess out to other nations. But I'll grant the politicians a pass that this is basically one of those "you can't win" fuzzy decisions that I don't envy them having to make.)