Coronavirus Pandemic

[rowan]

This would make sense if cities were showing up as centres of infection, I can't see Birmingham, Manchester, Edinburgh or Glasgow as dots on that map (<edit> or for that matter London, which I previously assumed), and they're big enough that they should dominate their regions. On the other hand NI is mostly fields, and it's saturated.

Maybe it's mostly been & gone in the most densely populated & connected centres, now spreading through the rest?

[zip accident]

... clearly Glasgow and Edinburgh aren't showing any significant increase in rates, unlike Cardiff.

Cardiff is a small city, as are Newport and Swansea. The blue area is The Valleys, and west of that to and beyond the Gower. I suggest that there's better backing in this data for the idea that people in towns are isolated from each other and people in villages all know each other, and there is thus more infection in the countryside than in cities.

This would make sense if cities were showing up as centres of infection, I can't see Birmingham, Manchester, Edinburgh or Glasgow as dots on that map (<edit> or for that matter London, which I previously assumed), and they're big enough that they should dominate their regions. On the other hand NI is mostly fields, and it's saturated.

Maybe it's mostly been & gone in the most densely populated & connected centres, now spreading through the rest?

Could be that too.

[Ratsoap]

I think the argument that Scotland is doing better could have some merit with respect to Scotland, where clearly Glasgow and Edinburgh aren't showing any significant increase in rates, unlike Cardiff.

But it's hard to untangle from the more general data. As throughout the pandemic England clearly has large variations by region as infection ebbs and flows in different areas, and it's not totally implausible that Scotland could be just at the bottom of a lull right now.. Scotland has also had higher rates than the UK at many points in the pandemic and all-time infection rates are not broadly lower than the UK.

Overall, the performance in Scotland has not been perceived by my colleagues there as dramatically better than the UK, even though they seem to generally lean towards tighter restrictions than average.

Both me and my wife work in tourism, and as a general rule, the people who don't bother, or flat out refuse to wear masks are from England (groups of young blokes being the worst offenders). The government attitude definitely seems to filter into the collective conscious.

Dreading the next few weeks, as people 'don't realise' the rules are different up here.

[Dio]

... clearly Glasgow and Edinburgh aren't showing any significant increase in rates, unlike Cardiff.

Cardiff is a small city, as are Newport and Swansea. The blue area is The Valleys, and west of that to and beyond the Gower. I suggest that there's better backing in this data for the idea that people in towns are isolated from each other and people in villages all know each other, and there is thus more infection in the countryside than in cities.

I have family in the Rhondda and know the area well.

It's not villages there - they're effectively just suburbs of Cardiff, you can go all the way from Treherbet through Pontypridd to Cardiff Central without seeing land that's not built on (except where it's approximately vertical, of course). That area was hit hard in the first couple of waves but has done a little better with this one (at least, so far).

[gilesgoat]

... clearly Glasgow and Edinburgh aren't showing any significant increase in rates, unlike Cardiff.

Cardiff is a small city, as are Newport and Swansea. The blue area is The Valleys, and west of that to and beyond the Gower. I suggest that there's better backing in this data for the idea that people in towns are isolated from each other and people in villages all know each other, and there is thus more infection in the countryside than in cities.

I have family in the Rhondda and know the area well.

It's not villages there - they're effectively just suburbs of Cardiff, you can go all the way from Treherbet through Pontypridd to Cardiff Central without seeing land that's not built on (except where it's approximately vertical, of course). That area was hit hard in the first couple of waves but has done a little better with this one (at least, so far).

I would not call Cardiff "a small city" .. Carmarthen IS a SMALL city .. then all the rest around here you'd call them "barely something" ?

[Harlequin]

... clearly Glasgow and Edinburgh aren't showing any significant increase in rates, unlike Cardiff.

Cardiff is a small city, as are Newport and Swansea.…

I would not call Cardiff "a small city" .. Carmarthen IS a SMALL city .. then all the rest around here you'd call them "barely something" ?

I thought Carmarthen was just a town and not a city at all. Surrounding places might be smaller towns, villages, hamlets and the like.

Of the views on the map presented here so far, I am mostly leaning toward rowan's: that there could have been an inversion of case rates in many regions due to greater immunity following earlier infections.

[KlaxonCow]

Carmarthen IS a SMALL city

Carmarthen is not a city. Nowhere close. It's not even that big of a town.

At best, it could be seen as the "capital" of rural West Wales (Dyfed and Ceredigion). The "central hub" town for all the small villages and farms surrounding it. The biggest town of an area that's very much town-less, generally speaking.

Unless you mean that in the American sense, where everything is labelled a "city" regardless.

[PFVA]

Unless you mean that in the American sense, where everything is labelled a "city" regardless.

That's used just in official language I think. I mean for example San Francisco and San Jose are cities, everything between them in everyday language are referred to as towns. And people are very proud of living in a town and not in a city.


Around here the entire country is in red

https://www.sapo.pt/noticias/covid19

Mine with 5946/100 thousand inhabitants
Lisbon 6251
Cascais 5818
Sintra 4895

[Harlequin]

I only recently learned, after living in it for the vast majority of my life, that London is not a city. It is a region and perhaps a county or two which happens to contain two cities: Westminster and the confusing named square-mile-and-a-bit City of London.

Around here the entire country is in red
https://www.sapo.pt/noticias/covid19
…

You seem to be doing very well with vaccinations, though:

[Rhythm]

Carmarthen IS a SMALL city

Carmarthen is not a city. Nowhere close. It's not even that big of a town.

Yeah, it's not a city. Has no cathedral, hasn't been designated city status by the queen, ergo...

Nearest cities to you, Giles, are Swansea and St Davids (although I bet you'd get to Cardiff quicker than St Davids)

[merman]

“Should we be worried that the fall in Omicron cases has plateaued?” asks the BBC.

Yes.

[KlaxonCow]

“Should we be worried that the fall in Omicron cases has plateaued?” asks the BBC.

As I covered earlier, the Zoe Covid Study folks are tracking people's symptoms through their phone app and they often see things in their data ahead of the official data, and they're not seeing a plateau, but rather a reversal - what they've called a "bounce back" - where cases and reports have gone up 10% since the week before.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/omicron-bounces-back

Indeed, if you've ever looked at the graphs throughout all of this, then "plateauing" is what happens just before it changes direction. It's a "rate of change" thing - because for a decrease to become an increase (or an increase to become a decrease), it has to pass through zero. So a decline that starts "plateauing" could very well be a reversal of direction on its way.

And Zoe's data is actually showing some increase - nothing mega-catastrophic as yet, but it's going in the wrong direction - not just merely staying where it is.

They've attributed it to, one, the schools going back. Kids catch it and spread it to their parents - as you can see the cases in the young at first, then spreading to the 30 and 40 year olds, who are their parents.

And, two, that we do have this new Omicron sub-variant "BA.2" that's even more transmissible than the original Omicron - it's mutated to get even more transmissible, with some evidence that it's also slightly better at evading vaccines too. Though it has not, thankfully, yet showing any signs of being any more lethal. Omicron's basically refined itself - gotten slightly better at what it does.

And this new sub-variant is, unfortunately, not so easy to test for. Omicron lacked a specific spike gene, so it was actually real easy to identify it with PCR tests. But this new "Omicron 2" is currently not easy to discern from original Omicron, as it requires gene sequencing and such to tell them apart. So, basically, there could be a heck of a lot more "Omicron 2" out there than we know, because it requires more in-depth tests to tell which "sub-variant" you've got.

But this one is even more transmissible again, so it's likely to eventually become the dominant strain.

So, the plateauing could well be the prelude to this "BA.2" sub-variant taking over, and the unfortunately rather inevitable "surge" as it gets a foothold. Hopefully, as it's a sub-variant of the current dominant strain, then it won't be a massive "surge" from where we are now.

But, basically, Omicron has tweaked its formula - remember, more cases means more chance of mutation and faster natural selection, which is why cases do matter, and Omicron's had, like, at least three times more cases than Delta or the original strain - and is attempting a "comeback tour". In Denmark, it's already well on its way to becoming the dominant strain already.

Hopefully, this will only prove to be a "little bump in the road", but Omicron has no intention of dutifully fading into the background without putting up a fight, I'm afraid.

[PFVA]

sorry double post

[PFVA]

I only recently learned, after living in it for the vast majority of my life, that London is not a city. It is a region and perhaps a county or two which happens to contain two cities: Westminster and the confusing named square-mile-and-a-bit City of London.

Around here the entire country is in red
https://www.sapo.pt/noticias/covid19
…

You seem to be doing very well with vaccinations, though:

Yeah, we are doing well in that portion even if the booster dose is going a bit slower than it should. We don't have many anti-vaxxers here. After the former judge organised the big national demonstration that joined two or three hundred people shouting a lot we don't even hear of them anymore.

We are not very good at social distancing though. I just went to grab my coffee and there was more than one person per square meter inside the small place. And of course those who drink the coffee or eat inside have to remove the masks. At the time I go there, only 3 people including me take the coffee outside to drink it.

[Dio]

I suspect in hindsight that on the European vaccine regimes the boosters will, for the majority of the population, be found to be a waste of time. Certainly they are useful to vulnerable groups. But they don't seem to have much effect on infection rate and very few vaccinated people are getting seriously ill.

(Note the US is different, and there the booster makes more sense - because they only had a 4-week gap between first and second dose, the booster has a far greater effect on immunity).

Cynics might argue we pushed it here in the UK as a Politician's Syllogism (We must do something, this is something, we must do this). Or even "We must look like we're doing something without offending the antivax brigade..." It hasn't addressed the real problem, which is vaccinating the unvaccinated.