Coronavirus Pandemic

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Dio
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

Post by Dio »

snaff wrote:
Dio wrote:The clinically vulnerable can't be protected. They are going to get it at some point and have to roll the dice on it. They need vaccinating and then, sadly, they're going to have to take their chance. They will get it eventually.
They should have only vaccinated the vulnerable. That way there is less evolutionary pressure for the virus to escape the vaccine.
A. that's not quite how it works.
B. As we've seen over the last 12 months, infections in the the general population are perfectly capable of either requiring heavy lockdown or causing health system collapse, I think we can all agree both those are bad ideas.

As to the second post, I'm pretty sure you don't even believe it yourself, so I won't bother feeding.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

Post by PFVA »

And today with a total of 20 302 deaths we hit the sad mark of 2 thousand per 1 million inhabitants.

We are not at the top of the European table but we are not at the bottom either

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The use of masks indoors is still mandatory. The only change so far is that vaccinated travellers won't be required to do tests when coming into the country.

Note: The anti masks and anti other measures people had. a 'big' and noisy demonstration planned the night of the elections in front of the headquarters of the governing party, police was even called at the beginning but as it started to be obvious the party was winning by a big majority they vanished, went home or to have a few drinks or whatever. Things are quiet again about that kind of stuff.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

Post by merman »

1 in 20 infected last week in the UK, only Wales saw a drop in infection rates.

So why is Boris standing up at PMQs promising to end restrictions shortly after the recess (February 21st), a month early?

Herd immunity doesn’t work if you can get reinfected.
Ending the legal requirement to isolate after a positive test is a seriously bad move that will kill people.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

Post by KlaxonCow »

How on Earth can it ever be justified for those who test positive not to isolate?

Like, you can argue about masks or vaccines or other measures - about their efficacy and such - but how the hell can you ever argue for those who have Covid to go wandering amongst those who don't?

Indeed, "herd immunity" as a concept doesn't work if people can get reinfected.

As I said before, this is what Omicron showed us, as it surged over three times worse than any other wave for cases, smashing straight through any "immunity wall" we had without blinking.

I fear that people are declaring victory, when we won absolutely nothing - Omicron spared us by weakening itself, by not going in for the kill. Our jabs weren't good enough - that's why we scrambled to get everyone boosted (and, even then, the booster only took our protection up to about 70% - that's still 30%, almost 1 in 3, where it's not actually effective, plus Omicron has been happily causing "breakthrough infections" like nobody's business).

We didn't win. Omicron spared us.

And herd immunity cannot work, if you can get re-infected or if the vaccinated / previously infected are capable of passing it on - both of which have definitely happened, alarmingly commonly, with Omicron. If the vaccinated / previously infected are not a "block" on the virus spread, then there is no "herd immunity".

It's an insanity to pursue a strategy that we now know simply can't work. It's an insanity to argue for removing isolation from those we know have the virus - how can you justify this? It makes no fucking sense.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

Post by Little stoned kiwi »

You don't understand the position governments around the world are now taking? Allow me to sumerise it:

"Just get on with it, you plebs."
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

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KlaxonCow wrote:How on Earth can it ever be justified for those who test positive not to isolate?
There won't be any more free testing, so nobody is ever going to test positive anyway.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

Post by Vargol »

Dio wrote:
KlaxonCow wrote:How on Earth can it ever be justified for those who test positive not to isolate?
There won't be any more free testing, so nobody is ever going to test positive anyway.
Hey, it we don't need to isolate then why bother testing away so the cost doesn't matter.

Yes I'm planning on testing and isolating if necessary, I'll just call it being of sick instead.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

Post by Cloudane »

I suppose those kind of controls were not going to hang around forever once we got to the endemic stage (which seems to be the consensus of govt, WHO and co when it comes to the UK). We haven't legislated for isolation for other infectious diseases, and with a libertarian government that doesn't seem likely.

I'd love for it to be seen as common courtesy if you have any infectious disease though, to wear a mask if you have to be out, and to stay home as much as you can - and financially supported by employers (government mandated to be) in terms of sick pay. Yes some people will abuse it on Monday mornings etc etc tough shit do it anyway. It was never pleasant having some dickhead making a big show of coming into work with a nasty cold because they're "too busy" to be off etc and then you end up with your weekend ruined.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

Post by KlaxonCow »

Dio wrote:There won't be any more free testing, so nobody is ever going to test positive anyway.
And when Trump suggested that policy, we all laughed at him for being a complete moron.

But now this is official UK policy... and, weirdly, people are defending this, as if it's a sensible policy.

Let us just illustrate the timeline here:

Image

The red line is the peak of Omicron - the worst it's ever gotten, over three times worse than previously - and the blue line is the peak of Delta.

The purple lines are when lockdowns happened. The orange line has been "the era of hybrid immunity" (how things have been since declaring "Freedom Day") - and the green line is roughly the level of "acceptable" daily cases we've been tolerating since that policy decision was made.

The observation is that we're abandoning testing and isolation, a couple of months after registering our worst numbers ever. We're doing it while we've got numbers worse than it ever was under Delta.

You can see where "Freedom Day" was declared on the graph. Because, ever since, we've been just tolerating, as presumably "acceptable", a level of cases that's worse than anything previously, save for the peak of Delta.

This is "boiling the frog" territory. People have been accustomed to 40-50K daily cases, since "Freedom Day", from just having those numbers blasted at us every day by the news. But you can see on the graph that this is only "normal" because of the policy change. It's only been "normal" in the era of "hybrid immunity" since "Freedom Day" (the orange).

Note that all those many months of "hybrid immunity" didn't do sod all to stop the insane surge of Omicron. We scrambled for booster jabs because all those months of illness and deaths had built an "immunity wall" that Omicron smashed through, as if it wasn't even there. Because Omicron has mutated some level of "vaccine escape" and causes "breakthrough infections", even for the vaccinated and previously infected.

Boris has succeeded, by simply making everyone face 40-50K cases every single day - by "pandemic numbers fatigue" - to get everyone to just accept this. But the graph doesn't remotely back up this narrative at all. Since "Freedom Day", we've done worse than we've ever done, save the peak of Delta.

This "sacrifice" has done nothing, as Omicron tore through the population - like no wave previously - without really any resistance whatsoever (it rises so fast, it's hard to see, but it's a textbook exponential, indicating that, really, we did pretty much nothing to slow it down or prevent it).

We're acting like we've won something. But we haven't - Omicron spared us, as it wasn't going for deaths (indeed, despite the massive Omicron surge, the death graph barely registers anything - so, as I say, Omicron wasn't even trying to kill people).

This absolutely isn't "following the science". And you can see, as I've illustrated, how policy decisions have affected things.

And now, as our numbers are amongst the worst it's ever been, save the Delta peak, we're going for the Trump-ian "if we stop testing, then we can pretend there aren't any cases" policy?

They've gotten everyone accustomed to a level of disease that simply was not the case before declaring "Freedom Day", throwing up our hands and sighing "there's nothing we can do about it". Even though this has only been the case since Boris threw out all the restrictions, and never was the case previously.

The frog has been boiled. And no-one laughed.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

Post by Dio »

That graph is missing the key lockdown in Jan-May last year.

Against the case load though, it's not terribly illuminating, because the change in death rate per case has transformed the severity of a given case.
This "sacrifice" has done nothing, as Omicron tore through the population - like no wave previously - without really any resistance whatsoever (it rises so fast, it's hard to see, but it's a textbook exponential, indicating that, really, we did pretty much nothing to slow it down or prevent it).
Sure, and few people died, almost none of them vaccinated. Tragically a few did, but accidental death at higher levels happen for many other reasons and we don't take such drastic precautions. The end of testing is surely close, although I tend to agree that 'next week' and indeed even March is a bit early, I would have kept on tracking things into the spring, myself.

It's clear that a fall in testing rates is as responsible for the current drop in case load as anything else - and note that the hospitalisation rate decline is still continuing to accelerate.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

Post by Cloudane »

The lockdowns happened because the infection fatality rate back then was way way higher. We didn't need one this time despite the shock graph effect with cases, because it's now way way lower
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

Post by KlaxonCow »

Prince Charles has Covid again:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... econd-time

(The tabloids are speculating that he might even have given it to the Queen, as he met her shortly before his diagnosis.)

Mark Drakeford also has Covid:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-60332828

The Zoe Covid app reckons we're on the rise in cases again, just barely behind the all-time peak:

Image

And the ONS data is also further confirming a rise in cases too.

We have the subvariant "BA.2" on the rise - it's now 1 out of every 6 infections - which has even higher transmission and more vaccine resistance than the original Omicron.

We're not even back to the already unacceptable "Hybrid Immunity" levels of the green line in my graph. Just barely lower than / around the same as Delta's peak.

This is NOT the time to be doing this. It really isn't.

To be clear, of course testing should ultimately end. But not in the midst of a storm, that's getting worse. And, again, I'm not advocating for "permanent lockdown" or such shit.

To be clear, you are able to choose options besides "all or nothing". You can gradually ease restrictions and lessen testing, as the numbers dictate.

Come on. The real reason for this bold purely political gesture is because another photo of Boris partying has surfaced, and he needs Tory backbench votes to save his arse. He needs the distraction and to try to foster some "man of the people" three cheers from the plebs, to hoodwink the Tory party that he's not the election liability that he so clearly is.

Boris is just saving his skin. At whatever cost to everyone else.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

Post by merman »

Cloudane wrote:I suppose those kind of controls were not going to hang around forever once we got to the endemic stage (which seems to be the consensus of govt, WHO and co when it comes to the UK). We haven't legislated for isolation for other infectious diseases, and with a libertarian government that doesn't seem likely.

I'd love for it to be seen as common courtesy if you have any infectious disease though, to wear a mask if you have to be out, and to stay home as much as you can - and financially supported by employers (government mandated to be) in terms of sick pay. Yes some people will abuse it on Monday mornings etc etc tough shit do it anyway. It was never pleasant having some dickhead making a big show of coming into work with a nasty cold because they're "too busy" to be off etc and then you end up with your weekend ruined.
When I was in hospital in November, there was an older gentleman who had been moved up from ICU.

He had been in an induced coma for SEVEN WEEKS due to COVID-related pneumonia.
Due to his health issues, he had been shielding for eighteen months.
And then along comes Boris’s Freedom Day and he returned to the office.

Less than a week later, some dickhead chose to go into work despite testing positive.
This poor guy caught it, and was then moved on to another hospital for months of rehab to help him walk again.

Society only works when we look out for each other, ending the requirement to isolate on a positive test means more and more people exposed to unnecessary risk and potentially life-changing (or ending) infection.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

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So you're proposing for everyone to test for covid every day, for all eternity, with some super-accurate test? If not, what are you gaining that would prevent that circumstance? Yes, someone has been a cock in this case. Yes, we are ending this a bit too soon. Yes, we should keep mask mandates on public transport for now, possibly forever.

But today there is no way to reliably prevent 99%+ of the people in the country catching this thing once a year short of lockdown conditions.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic

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Dio wrote:So you're proposing for everyone to test for covid every day, for all eternity, with some super-accurate test?
No, of course not. That's blatantly a strawman.

I mean, we also can't 100% cure cancer. Therefore, fuck it, no more cancer treatment. No more cancer research. Even perfectly operable cancers that have been discovered early... nope, if we can't save 100% of absolutely everyone, then we're going to do nothing whatsoever.

Furthermore, as we have an economy to think about, then let's not waste a penny of money or a second of time in promoting breast cancer screenings, or getting men to check for testicular cancer. Let's not discourage people from sunbathing without sun cream, as we don't care if they get skin cancer. Let's not have "quit smoking" campaigns or health warnings on fags.

That is "letting perfection be the enemy of the good" to a rather insane level.

Basically, we can't cure death. Therefore, close all the hospitals. Fire all the doctors and nurses. Let's not bother with hygiene. Let's throw out all safety measures.

Because we're going balls to the wall, baby. Full-on fatalism. Not just absolute surrender, but some perverse underlying "blood sacrifice", as if those who die from Covid are paying off some cosmic debt. Except, of course, they aren't. Because there are no angry gods and this is not a "punishment", so you gain no mercy nor favour from surrendering to a string of RNA inside a protein shell. It's not even technically alive. There is absolutely nothing there to appeal to.

Bollocks.

Not just bollocks, but very erroneous bollocks. In that folks compare it to other endemic disease like the 'flu.

But, actually, we don't just "accept" the 'flu at all. Every single year, year after year, there's an effort to develop the annual 'flu jab (and, thanks to Covid, we've all watched on to see how this is no small effort - and, for the 'flu jab, that happens every single year. They start work on next year's, before this year's jabs have made it to arms. They have to predict - unfortunately, not always perfectly - what strains will be dominant ahead of time, so that we have the most appropriate vaccine by the time it's available).

Earlier, you compared it to accidental deaths. Yes, exactly. Accidental deaths. Unintended and unexpected deaths. But we absolutely do legally require seat belts in cars, we require cyclists to wear helmets, workers to wear protective gear and high vis jackets. Even with accidental deaths, we take as much precautionary measures as we sensibly can. Dangerous driving and driving under the influence, etc. are crimes. Manslaughter is a crime. Indeed, even suicide is a crime.

But against all precedent, against all our values, this one's an exception where we're not just going to let people get sick and die, we're going to remove all the protections entirely, to speed it along. Hurry up and die already, bed blockers!!

And we're going to just flatly ignore that there's blatantly obvious political motivation for a PM under pressure to be pandering to his libertarian Tory backbenchers, upon whom he very much needs their votes and to discourage them from filing "no confidence" motions against him. He needs the distraction and populist appeal amongst the public, in the hopes we might forget. There's also the simple concept of removing all the Covid laws to try to make the fact that he broke them earlier not seem so bad.

This is absolutely the wrong time to be doing it. As cases are actually rising - by both ONS and Covid app figures - and "BA.2", a new sub-variant that amplifies Omicron's ability for transmission and "vaccine escape" (i.e. vaccines less effective against it, more "breakthrough infections" happening with it, etc.).

Boris intends to blind us, just as the graphs are turning for the worst (literally, by the Covid app graphs, we're only barely below the peak of all peaks, so it won't take much to reach, quite literally, the worst it's ever been on cases).

And you may ask "but what should we do?". Let's not throw everything on the bonfire in one go. Like, you know, every other nation on planet Earth. Including Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, who're doing this within the UK. England is a bizarre outlier. This is NOT normal behaviour. Yes, plenty of governments are relaxing restrictions - including the regions, as Wales is now dropping its "Covid passes", for example - but none are putting logic itself on the ideological bonfire.

As I say, how the hell do you justify ending self-isolation for those who're definitely positive? If we don't know - lack of testing - then that's one thing, but if it's absolutely known that this person has a contagious disease, then why the fuck are we removing the requirement for quarantine?

Is this universal? Like, if I caught Ebola, then am I also encouraged to go around spreading it? If I'm bit by a rabid dog, then are we also removing the law that says I can't go around biting people, as that might get in the way of me spreading it far and wide?

Sorry, but there is no other case where we adopt this policy of fatalistic surrender. This is NOT normal. This is weird and illogical, and this is why I was convinced that people had been swallowing "the narrative" simply because I can't believe otherwise perfectly intelligent and sensible people haven't noticed that this makes no fucking sense whatsoever and contradicts every precedent and value we've ever set ourselves for anything and everything else.

You're all fucking mad.

We can't cure death. Therefore, please jump off a cliff immediately. Please ignore the fact that no-one else on planet Earth is doing that - just jump off the cliff and think of England.
Dio wrote:Yes, we should keep mask mandates on public transport for now, possibly forever.
Forever? Forever ever?

Geez Louise, that's way more extreme than anything I've ever said. I'm only arguing for nuance - that we don't have to "all or nothing" it, but can gradually relax things, as the actual figures suggest.

I absolutely do see masks and social distancing and all that fading away, gradually, as this thing really does become endemic in the population.

But this is a slow process of cumulative immunity. We don't just get jabbed three times and, right, now we're done. It doesn't work like that.

Indeed, we've seen that it doesn't work like that. We all got two jabs and then, there we go, job done. A booster or two for the vulnerable. Sorted.

But then Omicron rode in, rode all over us and our "immunity wall" as if it wasn't even there. And, yes, we scrambled in a panic to get every third jabbed - it was never originally intended that everyone get a booster, but Omicron gave few fucks for being double jabbed and the antibodies waned, so we rushed to triple jab the whole adult population.

And, as I say, the saving grace was that Omicron wasn't interested in killing people. We did not win or succeed, Omicron spared us.

This sudden declaration of "victory" after the worst surge so far - by a country mile, as it's over three times worse than ever before - which mandated a scramble to get a third jab that we weren't originally supposed to need (because it turns out that two jabs don't magically end it all instantly), just as the numbers are getting worse, because the "sub-variant" is kicking in?

This is just madness, sorry. Utter, utter madness.

Boris is trying to save his own skin. At whatever cost.
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