Politics Thread!

Inane baanter or words of wisdom - you decide...
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zip accident
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by zip accident »

I personally thinh what Putin has over Trump is greed.

I'm beginning to wonder about a united states of all of America, with all of the non current states offered associate status to be followed by full member status in some time.

The deal could be as simple as "you stay out of my back yard, and I'll stay out of yours".

If Trump was taking a cowardly option, his nazis would have dumped him, but they're backing him up to the hilt.

If Trump starts backing Argentina over the Falklands, we'll know it's on.
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by Kelloggs »

Two (non-exclusive) factors buzzing round in my head are:

a) Less likely, but I've watched too many Cold War films in my time - Soviet-era brainwashing techniques. He's parroting Putin a little too closely for it to be accidental, when he can't even get sensible American thoughts out without tripping over himself. If so, likely going back years, because apparently Trump was interested in the Presidency since the late 80s (and in his time was Democrat, and Independent, and Republican - the end was more important than the means).

b) The Apprentice (the original US one) dangled an interesting carrot in front of him. This has been confirmed by sources close to him - he likes high Ratings, and a sure-fire way of getting that is Conflict. Unfortunately, anyone who wants to tell him that this is reality, not Reality TV, is likely to be immediately and summarily ejected from the gravy-train, and none of them want that - most couldn't have otherwise got a ticket.
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by KlaxonCow »

Another possibility is floating around:



Even SNL made a joke about how Trump was going to release the Epstein files "from A to S... but no T".

Remember, this comes from a guy who "grabs them by the pussy", ran the Miss World pageant just so he could walk into the changing rooms (and brags about it), and has openly confessed that he wants to fuck his own daughter:



This man is the epitome of a "kompromat" target. It's pretty much an open fact that he's a massive pervert.
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by KlaxonCow »

Matt Frei has looked for the "kompromat". It might exist, but journalists have searched and can't find anything.



He's got a perhaps much more simple explanation. It's revenge.

Trump's first impeachment and when he asked Zelenskyy to give him dirt on Hunter Biden. Zelenskyy said "no, I'm not playing your game".

This is Trump's vengeance. Humiliate Zelenskyy, try to force him to "kiss the ring". Say "thank you". Beg on his knees before the orange God King.

Now, of all the theories floating around, this one might have me convinced.

Because that would be so Trump. As Trump as it gets. 100% narcissism. Getting petty, petty vengeance on anyone who has slighted him.

It does kind of fit perfectly. But we still have to ask why Trump is so much up Putin's arsehole - because that one's still not explicable for a narcissist to see anyone as "superior" to them. But that's exactly how he behaves to Putin. Like he's fucking in love with him or something.
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by zip accident »

KlaxonCow wrote:This man is the epitome of a "kompromat" target.
He might be if he cared about keeping it secret. If he was doing that, his nazis would dump him.

Those right wingers aren't dumping him, they're behind his "Drill baby, drill" talk all the way, global warming isn't a problem for them or for Putin and his supporters, Putin, Trump and their many supporters are aligned in this, global warming would make Canada, Greenland and Siberia profitable farm lands in ways they aren't now and getting there would be more profitable than cutting back.

Argentina (which would also benefit from global warming) wants to claim the south Atlantic oilfield and all that's in the way are a few pesky Falklanders. Trump will be all for that because "Drill baby, drill".

Canada probably won't join his super US at the first asking, Brazil and Cuba might not either, but the poorer states south of the current USA? it seems it would be very tempting for the citizens of those states, and then Canada and Brazil etc. would be surrounded and it might begin to look tempting to them too. Puerto Rico and Alaska are precedents, there is a system already in place in the USA to do this.
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by F-ZeroOne »

Something Trump, Vance, Farage, Hitler and pretty much every so-called “populist” “leader” has never, ever understood is that it pays to have friends. It’s why Putin hasn’t really got past his own doorstep for the past three years. Yes, Ukraine has got a lot of aid from Europe and the US. And in return? Well, I’ve just learned theres a joint NATO training centre in Romania where Ukrainian veterans go to pass on their combat experience, particularly on dealing with drones, to NATO troops - lessons that will save NATO lives in future conflicts.

Yes, we got a lot of US help during World War II. In return, we gave them access to ULTRA, the cavity magnetron and the engine that turned the A-36 from an also-ran low altitude attack aircraft to the war-winning P-51.

It. Pays. To. Have. Friends!
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by zip accident »

F-ZeroOne wrote:the engine that turned the A-36 from an also-ran low altitude attack aircraft to the war-winning P-51.
You know you're making a mistake there?

According to Wikipedia and my memory, the P51 came first, admittedly with the Allison engine.
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by F-ZeroOne »

You are of course correct and thats on me for not double-checking the “version in my head”.
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by PFVA »

In the news 20 billions from Brussels to the Ukraine (our portion 300 million)
Trump will be happy. The reality show at the Oval Office is producing the results he wanted.
EU is increasing the military aid to the Ukraine.

In the meantime Rubio just sent 4 billion in emergency defence aid to Israel, as part of of the 20 billion the US is sending to them.
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by F-ZeroOne »

A Norwegian company saw the Oval Office tantrum and has decided it will no longer fuel US ships at its facilities. Friends...
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by KlaxonCow »

Despite how Trump and Vance might have talked, Putin's not in a strong position.

We're 3 years into a war he thought he'd win in days.

While Trump and Vance can demand Zelenskyy kisses the ring, grateful for American support, in those initial days, Ukraine resisted Russia's initial attempts on its own - because we were not supplying Ukraine before Putin invaded and, logistically, we couldn't instantly supply them arms.

For those first few days of the invasion, Putin's "blitzkrieg" surprise attack, Ukraine resisted it on its own, before Western allies could begin to logistically feed them more weapons.

Before the invasion, we might have believed "the Russian bear" propaganda. But, as the old joke has it, "better not to speak and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt".

We've seen them in action. Putin's "blitzkrieg" failed. Against a then-unsupplied smaller nation. He could not secure victory and had to pull out. Putin's strategy to take Kiyv failed miserably. They reached Kharkiv, but had to retreat and Ukraine pushed them back to the border.

We're 3 years in, and Ukraine's fought Putin to a stand still. They've even taken territory inside Russia.

His only gains are the pro-Russian South Eastern provinces who, as I've noted before, were "seeded" with Russian loyalists under the days of Stalin (like how the British "seeded" the Scottish in the North of Ireland that we have "loyalist" Northern Ireland, as this is a common imperial strategy; Israel attempts exactly the same when it sends its settlers into lands it wants to gain, because if they can hold a grip on the land for 50 years, 100 years, or whatever, they can start legitimately saying that it's "their" land).

And, even there, Putin declared those regions "Russian" when he does not, in fact, have a full military grip over the entire area.

Putin's had to resort to hiring North Korean mercenaries.

This is a very poor measure of his standing. Because he's lost his own mercenary group - the Wagner Group - who attempted a coup against him for his miscalculation in Ukraine. He can't trust his own internal mercenary forces any more, so he's had to approach the pariah state of North Korea.

There's two crucial things to this.

First, for North Korea to be willing to send on-the-ground troops to Ukraine, what deal has Putin made with Kim Jong Un? It's almost certainly a deal with a nuclear dimension. Nuclear expertise, supplies of fissile uranium. That sort of thing. Because for North Korea to be willing to lose its loaned mercenary troops to Putin and to take Russia's side in the UN vote (rather than simply abstaining), Putin's offering him some very good terms.

Speaking of which, America siding with Russia on the UN resolution is even more shameful when you know the only other party to back it - North Korea - is being bribed to do so. There really is no excuse; Even if America wanted to maintain a "neutral" stance for negotiation, there is the option to abstain from the vote.

Second, Putin is doing this because he's scared of conscripting his own people. He's not sure that they'd back him and wouldn't turn on him for demanding more sacrifice for his "special military operation". He's hiring North Korean mercenaries to fight his war, as he's scared of attempting to conscript Russians to the cause.

(There's an old strategy; Listen to how your enemies accuse you, because they're often telling you exactly what they fear for themselves. Trump and Vance shouted at Zelenskyy about him needing to conscript more troops in Ukraine. They're parroting Russian talking points, so they're really giving away Putin's own trepidation about having to do the same himself inside Russia, as he fears they'll turn on him. Zelenskyy, on the other hand, is leader of a nation that was invaded - "conscription" is somewhat automatic, when enemy troops could literally be at your door tomorrow. You can't live in the country and not be embroiled in the war. They challenged Zelenskyy over this, but it really feels like a "projection" of Putin's worries that he daren't do the same himself.)

He's looking externally for more troops, as he daren't look internally. And he can't trust his own mercenary armies anymore, as they attempted a coup to overthrow him.

That is not a strong position. Trump has been manna from heaven for Putin, as he's resetting the Russian propaganda that they're strong and doing well and bound to win, when every indication on the ground is that Putin's war is floundering. As he never planned for his "blitzkrieg" to still being going on, with little progress, 3 years later.

By conservative estimates, he's lost 95,000 troops to this. He's completely lost his "Wagner" mercenaries, as he daren't trust them ever again. He's scared to conscript more Russians, so has turned to making a deal for North Korean mercenaries to fight for him (and we should, in the midst of this, be very concerned for the terms of that deal, as one country fighting another country's war, on the ground with actual troops, is never done lightly, so he's almost certainly offered Kim Jong Un something major and very likely something nuclear - possibly something fissile being directly given to them - as the most obvious prize that NK would accept such a bad deal for).

Putin is not turning to his own people but an external power. He's scared of asking this from his own people.

And Putin is not holding back military power. We've seen him - blatantly, as war crimes - attack civilians and hospitals directly. To pound Ukraine with drones and missiles. There's no great Russian force in the background that he's reserving. As he's been going all out - "total war" - against Ukraine throughout, as he absolutely has to win this one or he consigned into retreat forever, and he can't bring it over the line.

In this context, Putin taking on all of Europe, all of NATO, at the same time would be unthinkably suicidal. Not, of course, that we shouldn't prepare for it, as Putin has shown unjustified overconfidence in attacking Ukraine in the first place, so he might be dumb enough to try (and there's always the nuclear dimension to be worried about, as even a losing side can flatten cities, when nukes are involved). But he couldn't "blitzkrieg" Ukraine on its own under a surprise attack.

Also, we owe Ukraine.

We asked them to surrender their former Soviet Union nuclear weapons. It was well-intentioned - to reduce nuclear proliferation in the world, back when we still thought Putin's Russia might be someone we could trust and deal with. But, in hindsight, maybe we should have let Ukraine keep them as an insurance policy against invasion from Russia. And, instead, had worked towards bringing Ukraine into international accords - bringing them towards NATO membership - to have come to regulate Ukraine's arsenal, rather than just disposing of it.
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by KlaxonCow »

In our quest to understand why Trump is aligning America with Putin, Jon Stewart of the Daily Show throws another possibility into the (wrestling) ring.



Putin's not woke. He's, quite literally and metaphorically, an extremely orthodox Christian.

Project 2025 is all about putting "Christian values" back into government. The attacks on DEI and trans, to put women back in the kitchen, the blacks back into subservience and slavery, and everyone adhering to the God-given "one man and one woman" Biblical template.

Again, I stress that Trump himself is actually atheist. This is abundantly clear in what he says and does, without doubt. He not only has no belief in a higher power, it's a concept that's beyond his narcissistic mind.

But his "base" - that he worked hard to cultivate into thinking he's America's Orange Messiah - is deeply Christian (the American version of Christianity, that said) and they approve of this theocratic take over of America.

Aligning itself with orthodox Putin to restore traditional family values, not "gay as fuck" Europe with all its "libtards".

Project 2025 was dreamt up by the Heritage Foundation and they very much emblazen their Christian conservative ideologies all over it.

Like, it's not just a meme. They really do want to bring "the Handmaid's Tale" to pass and think it's an instruction manual.



I mean, DOGE is, right now, doing the mass firing of "DEI hires". And though Trump didn't murder Congress (though they intended to hang Mike Pence, even though he was one of them, and Nancy Pelosi), he has already attempted a violent coup once before.

And the grand problem is, if this is the true motivation, then there's no "peace deal" possible with the new America, is there?
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by tufty »

I'm not sure Trump cares about pleasing his base long term. What he cares about is putting in place an unstoppable kleptocratic dictatorship.

The DOGE stuff is nothing to do with DEI, and everything to do with cementing Trump's position in power. He's making the previously administration-agnostic machinery of government into something which is 100% loyal to dear leader. That's 100% Project 2025, the thing they said they weren't doing, but then said "gotcha, we actually are doing that". And the damage they are doing is intentionally generational - it will take a complete remoulding of the civil service to get a functioning state back in place, and that will take generations. Think "what the tories did to the health service since COVID", multiply it by a billion, and do it in under a month.

Trump already owns the judicial branch, and the supreme court are already backing him up - they just explicitly allowed him to stop funding USAID despite the funds having been allocated by congress and the rules not allowing him to do that. There was a judicial stay to stop him blocking those funds, and SCOTUS have stayed that stay. We can expect them to continue backing him up.

Congress and the Senate are owned by the GOP, and both house and senate leaders are 100% loyal to Trump. They've already stated that it's not their job to try and stop the executive from doing whatever the hell it wants (despite that being exactly their role). And they aren't getting voted out of power any time soon. there will be a lot of gerrymandering between now and the midterms, and I would expect a lot of non-GOP candidates to be excluded from the ballot based on trumped up charges of one type or another.

Trump's base don't give a shit as long as those less well off than them are getting at least as reamed as they are. Start with immigrants and trans people. As an aside, trans people being "outed" by having their papers changed isn't even the start of it - trans women in jail are being prepared for the move to men's prisons, regardless of their treatment status - yes, they will be putting vaginas into men's prison. That's not going to end well. But hey, who cares, they're freaks, amirite? When they run out of immigrants and trans people, yeah, it'll be the rest of LGBTQ, darkies in general, the "globalists", anyone who isn't a flag waving "christian", and yeah, eventually all women's rights will go down the tubes as well.

But that's not what's happening at the moment. It's all about making it close to impossible to remove them from power. It's 1933-36 Germany in fast forward. With some bread and circuses to keep the base happy until they don't count any more.

I'm not sure America have many options available at the moment. About the only things that could work involve removing Trump and his entire cohort from power, permanently, and at once. Either a military coup, or a mass campaign of assassinations.

It's fucking bleak.
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Re: Politics Thread!

Post by Dio »

Things will change a bit if there's a swing at the midterms, which is inevitable if prices actually go up, and that seems likely after all the tariffs. Frankly, I'm surprised he's picked that fight now. Getting inflation under control means he ticks the main box reason why he was elected. Maybe there's a game played here where prices go up in the short term, then he can drop the tariffs to reduce inflation right in the election cycle? But so far it seems counterproductive.
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Re: Politics Thread!

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Dio wrote:Things will change a bit if there's a swing at the midterms
That's what I'm saying. I can't see there being meaningful midterms, if there are even midterms at all. A lot of what's going on is aimed at making those elections moot.

Removal of birthright citizenship, Executive Order 14160 of January 20, 2025 - "Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship", allows them to remove vast swathes of probably non-trump voters from the electoral roll. Rescinding Executive Order 14019 of March 7, 2021 "Promoting Access to Voting" allows the government to require in-place voting, which can be used to reduce the number of voters from specific areas physically able to vote (think 1 polling station for an entire area), allow in-place harassment of voters (Executive Order 14149 of January 20, 2025 - "Restoring Freedom of Speech and Ending Federal Censorship" along with a couple of others basically means his brownshirtsredhatscan stand outside polling stations and nobody can stop them). Executive Order 14152 of January 20, 2025 - "Holding Former Government Officials Accountable for Election Interference and Improper Disclosure of Sensitive Governmental Information" is all about punishing people for doing their job and ensuring elections are fair. And so on. There will be more to come.
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