Election Poll: Round 2

[aureole]

If the rest of their campaign is this persuasive, they will do very well, and if it reflects the mood of Cambridge, the swing could be very large here.

Don't underestimate the quiet men?

[Kemper_Boyd]

If the rest of their campaign is this persuasive, they will do very well, and if it reflects the mood of Cambridge, the swing could be very large here.

Don't underestimate the quiet men?

Oh God, have the Tories have gone mad and brought back IDS?

[Ratsoap]

Just got my postal ballot paper. Hmm decisions decisions. It's currently a toss-up between SSP and Libdem.

BTW the are a couple of parties on the ballot, that aren't on this poll: The Legalise cannabis Alliance, and the Free Scotland party (although I doubt they'll get an awful lot of votes).

[zip accident]

Are you driving home... wrote; ..., even if it is the Tories. A change is as good as a rest and they can't fuck it up too badly in four years.

My memories of the first 4 Maggie T. years are fairly vague, but I'm sure she got into her stride quite quickly, and became very unpopular. The Liberals (or was it already the Lib Dems) had a big lead in the opinion polls with an election due, then came the Falklands war, and all that changed.

[venusian]

Are you driving home... wrote; ..., even if it is the Tories. A change is as good as a rest and they can't fuck it up too badly in four years.

My memories of the first 4 Maggie T. years are fairly vague, but I'm sure she got into her stride quite quickly, and became very unpopular. The Liberals (or was it already the Lib Dems) had a big lead in the opinion polls with an election due, then came the Falklands war, and all that changed.

Yes and no.

"Yes", the tories could (and IMO probably would) completely screw up alot of things in four years, the currently stable economic situation being one part of that. The current tory leadership are a rabble of despirate, talentless, self-interested right wing nuts. In this case, a change would be as good as a rough shafting from behind, with a cheesegrater. They don't deserve a chance.

And "no", it wasn't the Liberals. It was Labour, under the leadership of Kinnock who snatched defeat from the (apparant) jaws of victory more than once. The notional parts of what is now the LibDem party were all over the place during the Thatcher years. phyically and in the polls.

[zip accident]

venusian wrote: And "no", it wasn't the Liberals. It was Labour, under the leadership of Kinnock who snatched defeat from the (apparant) jaws of victory more than once. The notional parts of what is now the LibDem party were all over the place during the Thatcher years. phyically and in the polls.

In general, you may well be correct.

However, just before the Falklands war came up, the Liberals (or the Lib Dems, I really do forget which), were doing much better than usual in the opinion polls, better than the Liberals had since long before WW2. I thought they had an actual lead, this was soon enough after the "winter of discontent" that people didn't want Labour back.



http://www.trashfiction.co.uk/sdp.html

book review wrote The main story of 1980-82 was the sheer hatred that was felt for the government. Labour were considered to be behaving very badly indeed, but the idea that they were making themselves unelectable for a generation (as the cliché has it) wasn't really around. And the initial impact of the SDP was further to erode Tory rather than Labour support. Thatcher became the most unpopular Prime Minister in the history of polling, Labour held on to its heartlands for grim death and the SDP - in combination with the Liberals - achieved poll ratings in excess of 50 per cent.

No wonder I didn't remember it being the Lib Dems, it was the Liberals & the SDP

[venusian]

venusian wrote: And "no", it wasn't the Liberals. It was Labour, under the leadership of Kinnock who snatched defeat from the (apparant) jaws of victory more than once. The notional parts of what is now the LibDem party were all over the place during the Thatcher years. phyically and in the polls.

In general, you may well be correct.

However, just before the Falklands war came up, the Liberals (or the Lib Dems, I really do forget which), were doing much better than usual in the opinion polls, better than the Liberals had since long before WW2. I thought they had an actual lead, this was soon enough after the "winter of discontent" that people didn't want Labour back.



http://www.trashfiction.co.uk/sdp.html

book review wrote The main story of 1980-82 was the sheer hatred that was felt for the government. Labour were considered to be behaving very badly indeed, but the idea that they were making themselves unelectable for a generation (as the cliché has it) wasn't really around. And the initial impact of the SDP was further to erode Tory rather than Labour support. Thatcher became the most unpopular Prime Minister in the history of polling, Labour held on to its heartlands for grim death and the SDP - in combination with the Liberals - achieved poll ratings in excess of 50 per cent.

No wonder I didn't remember it being the Lib Dems, it was the Liberals & the SDP

Well, my mistake; you learn something everyday. I should read more history...

I note, however, that the 50% poll rating was smack between two elections (79 and 83) and would have included the personal rating of the gang of four newly out of the Labour party. Thus it's not necessarily a good predictor of what might have happened at the following GE.

[zip accident]

venusian wrote:
I note, however, that the 50% poll rating was smack between two elections (79 and 83) and would have included the personal rating of the gang of four newly out of the Labour party. Thus it's not necessarily a good predictor of what might have happened at the following GE.

Is it History if you lived through it and remember (bits of) it?

Anyhow, as I recall it, up until Argentina started making possessive noises about the Falklands, the Lib SDP poll showing was holding fairly steady, or maybe even rising. But I could very easily be confused about that.

You want to debate what would have happened after the Falklands War if there had been no Falklands War?

Good Luck.

[Dio]

Well, the only policitian I've got solid trust in - Robin Cook - has spoken
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0, ... 48,00.html.

Maybe I have to vote Labour after all.

[Acronym]

If anyone's bored:
http://www.cur1350.co.uk at 3pm today - The CUR1350 Election Interviews.

Interviews with Anne Campbell (incumbent MP for Cambridge, Labour), David Howarth (Liberal Democrat) and Ian Lyon (Conservative).

The interviewer's, well, me...

Later on we'll upload mp3s to our website to download, so if you're interested there'll be plenty of time to hear them.

[zip accident]

Half Life(1)

"Are you thinking what I'm thinking?"

"I don't see it that way"

[Acronym]

Those interviews are now up at http://www.cur1350.co.uk/ .

[daniel thomas]

I'm hearing that Tony Blair is supposed to waltz his way to victory. Please tell me your entire country is insane. It would at the very least provide a plausable explanation.

Heck, even Dr Who is piling on Blair! Isn't that enough?

If I get drafted to fight in Iraq or Iran or whatever place Halliburton wants to loot, I'm going to fly to Britian and personally whack everone I see with a fly swatter. Bad toad! Bad toad!

[HGFB]

I'm hearing that Tony Blair is supposed to waltz his way to victory. Please tell me your entire country is insane. It would at the very least provide a plausable explanation.

I'm guessing most of the labour voters still remember what it was like under the Tory party for 18 years and don't want it to happen again.

I'm not sure labour is a much better alternative though but I think it's all we've got this time around.

[Kemper_Boyd]

It's just about conceivable that Labour won't win but it's
not bloody likely. Even in the slim possibility of a hung
parliament Labour is likely to end up forming a minority
government.