Labour are in a total clusterfuck of a position.
They're pretty much automatically going to get utterly cratered at the election - since their vote split 60/40 in favour of Remain, if they campaign as currently on the not-challenging-the-result position they will automatically lose a huge percentage of their vote - say 30% - to the LDs. And if they do change their mind and go (probably weak) Remain they probably lose about the same to UKIP.
Not sure Corbyn has too much to do with that, although if he had the balls (and instinct) to actually try to sell the remain position he would probably be playing a stronger hand.
They may be trying to play some longer game where they go Article 50 now and then try to drop everything later but I think that stands more chance of alienating everyone and leaking votes on both sides.
Most worryingly of all, though, it might be that if it all falls apart on Europe, they don't learn the lesson and elect a leader who can actually lead (let me be clear, hopefully one who also actually has left-wing politics, but one who understands and has the charisma to take people with them rather than leave them behind).
EU referendum are you in or out
-
phattslagg
- Baaaaaa!
- Posts: 3578
- Joined: Fri May 14, 2004 2:04 pm 0
- Location: Worcester, England
Re: EU referendum are you in or out
^this^
I supported Corbyn both times - not least because of the absolute shower that made up his opponents, but he is proving himself incapable of providing coherent leadership. I know that many factors have conspired against him, but the fact remains that the country desperately needs someone that the Labour Party can rally around.
Much was being made of a poll yesterday that asked who would make the best PM - Corbyn or May? May got 47%, and Corbyn 15%.
I mean - Theresa fucking May, ffs. An absolutely useless PM, who wasn't even elected properly by her own party. She only won because the others stood down. And right now she's off sucking up to The Fart, and likely leaving any pretence of British decency at the door, and Corbyn can only manage 15%?
Mind you - the fact that 38% said "don't know" could actually mean that a lot more people would be prepared to vote for him than the 15% would suggest, but there's no way around the fact that is a terrible polling against a very, very unlikeable PM.
I supported Corbyn both times - not least because of the absolute shower that made up his opponents, but he is proving himself incapable of providing coherent leadership. I know that many factors have conspired against him, but the fact remains that the country desperately needs someone that the Labour Party can rally around.
Much was being made of a poll yesterday that asked who would make the best PM - Corbyn or May? May got 47%, and Corbyn 15%.
I mean - Theresa fucking May, ffs. An absolutely useless PM, who wasn't even elected properly by her own party. She only won because the others stood down. And right now she's off sucking up to The Fart, and likely leaving any pretence of British decency at the door, and Corbyn can only manage 15%?
Mind you - the fact that 38% said "don't know" could actually mean that a lot more people would be prepared to vote for him than the 15% would suggest, but there's no way around the fact that is a terrible polling against a very, very unlikeable PM.
Re: EU referendum are you in or out
Is it allowed to actually feel a little optimistic about May? I know, it seems wrong. And she's a remainer in charge of a hard Brexit, which is odd. I'm leftie in every test I've tried, but I guess just like to be optimistic about whoever's in power at the time. It's not like it's in danger of changing any time soon.
See, I'm kind of glad she's not fucking around, as the uncertainty is worse - both economically and in general. In the words of Tucker we should "get the fuck in, or fuck the fuck off"
Making friends with Trump is a bit uncomfortable, as is Trump making friends with Putin. But maybe we can domesticate at least one of them?
I liked her comments earlier today about foreign policy, too. Quite right that we should stop bombing our 'values' into places - interference doesn't seem to end well (I think Star Trek tried to make this point a few times, too)
See, I'm kind of glad she's not fucking around, as the uncertainty is worse - both economically and in general. In the words of Tucker we should "get the fuck in, or fuck the fuck off"
Making friends with Trump is a bit uncomfortable, as is Trump making friends with Putin. But maybe we can domesticate at least one of them?
I liked her comments earlier today about foreign policy, too. Quite right that we should stop bombing our 'values' into places - interference doesn't seem to end well (I think Star Trek tried to make this point a few times, too)
-
phattslagg
- Baaaaaa!
- Posts: 3578
- Joined: Fri May 14, 2004 2:04 pm 0
- Location: Worcester, England
Re: EU referendum are you in or out
There's nothing wrong in hope. But optimism about May? I think that can only be described (in someone who identifies as "left") as hopelessly misplaced.
-
Little stoned kiwi
- Baaaaaa!
- Posts: 4597
- Joined: Mon Oct 27, 2003 6:05 am 0
- Location: Christchurch
Re: EU referendum are you in or out
This. Maybe she won't handle it the best. Maybe she'll fuck it up so bad it will take 20 years to put things on the right track. Maybe everything will work out fine.Cloudane wrote: See, I'm kind of glad she's not fucking around, as the uncertainty is worse - both economically and in general. In the words of Tucker we should "get the fuck in, or fuck the fuck off"
But kudos for being the one to do it. And a level of optimism is the only way forward, as Brexit must be viewed as an opportunity.
If they think you're crude, go technical; if they think you're technical, go crude. I'm a very technical boy.
Re: EU referendum are you in or out
I wouldn't call it "optimism", but I can appreciate the underlying "realpolitik" pragmatism she's following.
I was against Brexit and feel that the whole "immigration" thing is just one gigantic xenophobic red herring - "our" jobs are not being "stolen" by foreigners or by globalisation, in fact, but by machines and technological progress - but I can see that, if you accept that we're going to Brexit because the referendum result demands it, then she really has no other choices here.
The EU is not going to budge on freedom of movement. The Visegrad group - Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia - has explicitly said that if the Brexit deal touches freedom of movement in any fashion, then they will veto it. This means compromise on freedom of movement is impossible. Even without the Visegrad group's auto-veto, it's not as if the rest of the EU - France, Germany, etc. - would be remotely happy to compromise on freedom of movement anyway.
No compromise is possible there. The EU just won't realistically agree to it. So if one assumes that the referendum result demands that we "take back control of our borders" then, really, hard Brexit is the only pragmatic option.
And, yes, in light of that, go whole hog with the hard Brexit. Presume that's the best you're going to get from the EU. The old military mindset: "Hope for the best, but always plan for the worst".
During negotiations, you can give it a shot. But it seems a complete impossibility to "take back control" of immigration and get Single Market access simultaneously. So if you presume that the referendum result demands the former, then the latter has to be abandoned and hard Brexit it is.
Also, sucking up to Trump to the degree that May was doing is distasteful. But, fuck it, we're desperate here. All our trade deals are through the EU and we're not legally allowed to negotiate our own trade deals until we're out of the EU, so on day one of being out of the EU, the UK will have no trade deals with anyone (except any we negotiated with the EU itself as part of leaving the EU - but, as mentioned, immigration control and single market access are mutually exclusive and the EU simply can't let us profit by our leaving or that invokes the existential crisis of others leaving to get a better deal and the EU collapsing, so it is pragmatic to assume that, well, if we're getting any deal with the EU at all, then it's likely to be a really shit one).
Trump has been positive about a Brexit trade deal. Well, really, we've got to take it. Beggars can't be choosers.
Similarly, Australia will do us a trade deal, if we relax immigration for Aussies? So much for "take back control" but, fuck it, okay, we're just going to have to take that, aren't we?
Indeed, I said it way back. This is the reality of Brexit. On day one, we're going to have no useful trade deals with the rest of the planet, so we desperately need to get some back pronto and, well, those we're negotiating with know full well that we're desperate for anything. This is not, of course, a good position to be in for getting what you want out of negotiations, when the other party knows that you cannot walk away empty-handed and basically have to accept even a shit deal.
And, realistically, as shit as it certainly is, Trump actually represents probably our best chance to get something half decent because he has his own political interests - in painting his own victory as being America's "Brexit" - to give us something good that makes Brexit not look like the disastrously bad idea that it genuinely is going to be. If Trump showers us with a good deal, this helps raise our negotiating position elsewhere too.
He's a cunt. But, realistically, we've got to assume a hard Brexit - and, thus, there is logic in just aiming squarely for that, on the assumption that this is the best we're going to get - and so we've got to suck up to this cunt and sycophantically feed his ego.
This is shit. But this is simply the actual realities of Brexit. And that's why I've always said it was a bad idea.
Because ignoring the jingoistic nonsense of pining for an Empire that's long dead and never coming back, as you were often made to draw the Union Jack as a kid in school as part of your national indoctrination - a flag that likely won't last far beyond Brexit anyway, as the Scots abandon ship on the UK - then this is really what people voted for when they voted Brexit. And "take back control" was always a totally ridiculous thing to promise all along.
Take back control of what exactly? I'll keep asking that question as the Brexit process moves forward, just to rub it in.
That said, in the long term, yes, something will be eventually sorted out. A new world order will be established with some kind of place for us, which might not be all that bad. Instability is unstable - tautologically so - thus it cannot ever be a final resting place. The world existed before the EU and it will do so afterwards. Whether that's a better world or not, though, is another matter.
But, in the short term, this will likely be slightly atrocious.
So, yeah, that hardly counts as "optimism", I'll grant you. But I can appreciate May's pragmatism that, fuck, this is really about all we can realistically do here, thanks to Farage and his ilk landing us with this nightmare scenario, so let's make the best of a bad bunch. It is all we can do.
I was against Brexit and feel that the whole "immigration" thing is just one gigantic xenophobic red herring - "our" jobs are not being "stolen" by foreigners or by globalisation, in fact, but by machines and technological progress - but I can see that, if you accept that we're going to Brexit because the referendum result demands it, then she really has no other choices here.
The EU is not going to budge on freedom of movement. The Visegrad group - Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia - has explicitly said that if the Brexit deal touches freedom of movement in any fashion, then they will veto it. This means compromise on freedom of movement is impossible. Even without the Visegrad group's auto-veto, it's not as if the rest of the EU - France, Germany, etc. - would be remotely happy to compromise on freedom of movement anyway.
No compromise is possible there. The EU just won't realistically agree to it. So if one assumes that the referendum result demands that we "take back control of our borders" then, really, hard Brexit is the only pragmatic option.
And, yes, in light of that, go whole hog with the hard Brexit. Presume that's the best you're going to get from the EU. The old military mindset: "Hope for the best, but always plan for the worst".
During negotiations, you can give it a shot. But it seems a complete impossibility to "take back control" of immigration and get Single Market access simultaneously. So if you presume that the referendum result demands the former, then the latter has to be abandoned and hard Brexit it is.
Also, sucking up to Trump to the degree that May was doing is distasteful. But, fuck it, we're desperate here. All our trade deals are through the EU and we're not legally allowed to negotiate our own trade deals until we're out of the EU, so on day one of being out of the EU, the UK will have no trade deals with anyone (except any we negotiated with the EU itself as part of leaving the EU - but, as mentioned, immigration control and single market access are mutually exclusive and the EU simply can't let us profit by our leaving or that invokes the existential crisis of others leaving to get a better deal and the EU collapsing, so it is pragmatic to assume that, well, if we're getting any deal with the EU at all, then it's likely to be a really shit one).
Trump has been positive about a Brexit trade deal. Well, really, we've got to take it. Beggars can't be choosers.
Similarly, Australia will do us a trade deal, if we relax immigration for Aussies? So much for "take back control" but, fuck it, okay, we're just going to have to take that, aren't we?
Indeed, I said it way back. This is the reality of Brexit. On day one, we're going to have no useful trade deals with the rest of the planet, so we desperately need to get some back pronto and, well, those we're negotiating with know full well that we're desperate for anything. This is not, of course, a good position to be in for getting what you want out of negotiations, when the other party knows that you cannot walk away empty-handed and basically have to accept even a shit deal.
And, realistically, as shit as it certainly is, Trump actually represents probably our best chance to get something half decent because he has his own political interests - in painting his own victory as being America's "Brexit" - to give us something good that makes Brexit not look like the disastrously bad idea that it genuinely is going to be. If Trump showers us with a good deal, this helps raise our negotiating position elsewhere too.
He's a cunt. But, realistically, we've got to assume a hard Brexit - and, thus, there is logic in just aiming squarely for that, on the assumption that this is the best we're going to get - and so we've got to suck up to this cunt and sycophantically feed his ego.
This is shit. But this is simply the actual realities of Brexit. And that's why I've always said it was a bad idea.
Because ignoring the jingoistic nonsense of pining for an Empire that's long dead and never coming back, as you were often made to draw the Union Jack as a kid in school as part of your national indoctrination - a flag that likely won't last far beyond Brexit anyway, as the Scots abandon ship on the UK - then this is really what people voted for when they voted Brexit. And "take back control" was always a totally ridiculous thing to promise all along.
Take back control of what exactly? I'll keep asking that question as the Brexit process moves forward, just to rub it in.
That said, in the long term, yes, something will be eventually sorted out. A new world order will be established with some kind of place for us, which might not be all that bad. Instability is unstable - tautologically so - thus it cannot ever be a final resting place. The world existed before the EU and it will do so afterwards. Whether that's a better world or not, though, is another matter.
But, in the short term, this will likely be slightly atrocious.
So, yeah, that hardly counts as "optimism", I'll grant you. But I can appreciate May's pragmatism that, fuck, this is really about all we can realistically do here, thanks to Farage and his ilk landing us with this nightmare scenario, so let's make the best of a bad bunch. It is all we can do.
"Words ought to be a little wild - for they are assaults of thought on the unthinking."
- John Maynard Keynes
- John Maynard Keynes
Re: EU referendum are you in or out
Why?Little stoned kiwi wrote:Brexit must be viewed as an opportunity.
Preventable disaster is equally as valid.
-
Absolute_Zero
- Baaaaaa!
- Posts: 3564
- Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 4:11 pm 0
- Location: Hilbert Hotel, Heisenberg.
Re: EU referendum are you in or out
Have a 'like' for the way you couched the question. Know you May knot.Cloudane wrote:Is it allowed to actually feel a little optimistic about May?
Not really, there is no soft exit option that's functionally distinguishable from Remain in ways that matter to those that voted Leave.And she's a remainer in charge of a hard Brexit, which is odd.
Technically there are possibilities with EEA/EFTA membership... e.g. Lichtenstein has access to the single market but isn't subject to FOM. But that's little Lichtenstein, the EU won't allow the UK to get away with that.
In general yes though I'd try to hang it out until after the French and German elections. Economically no, we're doing just fine in this period of uncertainty... well, thus far. Sure, inflation is rising on the weaker pound, but towards the target rate. The target exists at 2% for a reason.See, I'm kind of glad she's not fucking around, as the uncertainty is worse - both economically and in general.
As for JC:
Apart from the irony of a serial rebel issuing a three-line whip, what's the point exactly? It won't make any difference to the result. He could've maintained the democratic fig leaf fiction by encouraging Labour MPs to vote as their individual constituencies did. No resignations, no unnecessary division, MPs doing their actual job of representing their constituents. Instead the closet leaver races to the wrong end of the pitch in order to score an own goal. Hopeless.
Re: EU referendum are you in or out
Yeah, what I was trying to say, but condensed into a single sentence.Absolute_Zero wrote:Not really, there is no soft exit option that's functionally distinguishable from Remain in ways that matter to those that voted Leave.
If we are to Brexit, as the referendum result demands, then there really is no feasible "soft Brexit" option available (that isn't so compromised - retaining freedom of movement for single market access - that it's basically, indeed, functionally equivalent to have not really left the EU at all, e.g. ending up with a "Norway deal", which is just being unofficially in the EU without having any say in how it operates).
"Words ought to be a little wild - for they are assaults of thought on the unthinking."
- John Maynard Keynes
- John Maynard Keynes
-
Little stoned kiwi
- Baaaaaa!
- Posts: 4597
- Joined: Mon Oct 27, 2003 6:05 am 0
- Location: Christchurch
Re: EU referendum are you in or out
Is preventable? Is there a process in place to have Brexit reversed?gravy wrote: Why?
Preventable disaster is equally as valid.
Brexit could be described as an unpreventable disaster, but it's going to happen. Peeps have to roll with it.
If they think you're crude, go technical; if they think you're technical, go crude. I'm a very technical boy.
Re: EU referendum are you in or out
It hasn't happened yet; doesn't need reversing yet. The referendum wasn't binding. Of course it's preventable.Little stoned kiwi wrote:Is preventable? Is there a process in place to have Brexit reversed?gravy wrote: Why?
Preventable disaster is equally as valid.
Brexit could be described as an unpreventable disaster, but it's going to happen. Peeps have to roll with it.
-
Absolute_Zero
- Baaaaaa!
- Posts: 3564
- Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 4:11 pm 0
- Location: Hilbert Hotel, Heisenberg.
Re: EU referendum are you in or out
Mostly true. But in the interest of full disclosure... there is an argument that in some respects and sectors, Norway is better able to influence the standards and regulations [that it has to implement] at the supra-supranational level.KlaxonCow wrote:e.g. ending up with a "Norway deal", which is just being unofficially in the EU without having any say in how it operates).
Dr. North (almost uniquely) knows what he's talking about...
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=84061
part deux & trois - if your reading equals your writing
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=84063
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=84066
-
merman
- Sheepie Whore
- Posts: 10943
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2005 1:44 pm 0
- XBL Gamertag: merman1974
- Yahoo Messenger: andrewrfisher
- Location: Skegness, England
- Contact:
Re: EU referendum are you in or out
2016 - oh my God, don't stay in the EU because millions of Turks are ready to invade
2017 - it's brilliant to sign an arms deal with an oppressive Turkish regime
Brexit means holding your nose and doing deals with the devils
2017 - it's brilliant to sign an arms deal with an oppressive Turkish regime
Brexit means holding your nose and doing deals with the devils
Twitter, Xbox, Wii U and Steam - merman1974
ZZAP is back - https://www.patreon.com/zzapmagazine
ZZAP is back - https://www.patreon.com/zzapmagazine
-
zip accident
- Sheepie Whore
- Posts: 13928
- Joined: Sun Feb 20, 2005 1:58 pm 0
- Location: Bristol, UK
Re: EU referendum are you in or out
Prevention is what I want.venusian wrote:It hasn't happened yet; doesn't need reversing yet. The referendum wasn't binding. Of course it's preventable.
It would naturally happen in a free vote in the commons.
However, that would be a confidence vote, which would mean an election, and Labour would lose that election much harder than they lost the last one. So they are putting a whip behind the government.
Which means, when it turns out to be really really shit, then they will lose that election even harder than they would lose one now. It is a mess for Labour.
The good news is that when brexit turns out to be very very shit, that will sink UKIP too. So the next election (or maybe the one after that, if brexit takes a while to go totally tits up) is going to be the Greens versus the Tories.
It'll still take us ten more years after that to get back in.
"My way is the way of not fighting":- the book of Enter the Dragon.
Re: EU referendum are you in or out
But that's not what will happen. UKIP will blame everyone else, the people who didn't want to leave and broke it for them. Any bad deals out of the negotiation will be all the fault of the weak-minded people who didn't want to go and sabotaged their beautiful future.