EU referendum are you in or out

Inane baanter or words of wisdom - you decide...
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EU Are you IN or OUT

In
98
77%
Out
21
17%
Undecided (shake it all about)
8
6%
 
Total votes: 127

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Cloudane
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by Cloudane »

merman wrote:So regardless of the outcome today, Theresa Maybe will put HER deal - defeated twice, with two of the three biggest margins against in Parliamentary history - to a THIRD vote on Wednesday 20th, before her next EU meeting on the 21st.
And yet we're not even allowed a second vote, in case we've changed our minds and a small minority of hardcore loons get upset about it.

I'm half wondering if they'd eventually try this as a way of doing away with general elections. "You voted for us, it's the will of the people, you can't go changing your minds 5 years later"



My predictions mostly continue, except I didn't quite expect she'd shove that dead horse a third time, but I was struggling to fill some gaps in the timetable and that explains what they were due to be filled with. As indicated in the amendment votes, there's no majority for literally anything as everyone wants something different and hates all the other ideas, so it's down to whether a long extension is granted (despite probably going to the EU with no solid reason like a planned 2nd ref or GE) or, as I think, we crash out on the 29th having been denied.

I'm actually in 2 minds about the extension and going through e.g. 2 more years of this shit, vs "oh fine rip the plaster off, get it over with" (no bets involved, pure fatigue and a desire to get on with what's a short enough life) but that's from a privileged position that the poor don't have.
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KlaxonCow
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by KlaxonCow »

I was reading a news article about all this and it had the brilliantly oxymoronic phrase "third meaningful vote".

What's "meaningful" about a vote that you're made to do again and again, until you finally come up with the predetermined answer that May had already decided on beforehand?

The first "meaningful vote" was not meaningful at all, because its result was ignored, in order to ask the exact same question again. And the second "meaningful vote" will have any meaning drained from it, when it's also ignored, in order to ask the question all over again.

(No, I don't think this applies to a Second Referendum, because it's asking a different question from what's now a different situation.

The First Referendum was "Are you sure you want to leave the EU? OK / Cancel".

But a coming Second Referendum would be more like "Brexit error. Retry, abort, fail?".)
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Absolute_Zero
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by Absolute_Zero »

Cloudane wrote: My predictions mostly continue,
I'm not sure why... it should be even more obvious by now that no-deal is an unlikely outcome.
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Dio
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by Dio »

If it was getting dramatically less likely the £ would be over 1.35 now.
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Rhythm
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by Rhythm »

Absolute_Zero wrote:
Cloudane wrote: My predictions mostly continue,
I'm not sure why... it should be even more obvious by now that no-deal is an unlikely outcome.
For all the "meaningful" votes that have gone on this week we still need the EU27 to agree unanimously to allow us to have the extension we want. And whilst Parliament have been fucking things up, Aaron Banks and his cronies have been spending cash across the Europe meeting with and petitioning for their vetoes.

So I'm not sure "unlikely" is where things sit right now.

The government keep saying "faith in democracy will be killed off if we revoke A50" but for me it's been dead a long time. Our lead parties are just so consistently fucking cunty that I've never been able to support them and this Brexit shit has convinced me I never will.

Politicians gonna politic, I guess.

Until we get proportional representation where the parties can keep each other properly in check then we're never going to move forward.
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Cloudane
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by Cloudane »

Absolute_Zero wrote:
Cloudane wrote: My predictions mostly continue,
I'm not sure why... it should be even more obvious by now that no-deal is an unlikely outcome.
It's still the default outcome if Parliament can't come to a consensus on an alternative before the 29th, unless the EU rescues us with an extension (which, admittedly, it's looking more likely that they might. They're nice like that. Does rely on unanimous agreement though)
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Absolute_Zero
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by Absolute_Zero »

Cloudane wrote:
Absolute_Zero wrote:
Cloudane wrote: My predictions mostly continue,
I'm not sure why... it should be even more obvious by now that no-deal is an unlikely outcome.
It's still the default outcome if Parliament can't come to a consensus on an alternative before the 29th,
Who knew? I'll wait for the denouement and then expand my rationale. *spoiler* Socrates and Darwin will be mentioned.

Not to count chickens but per the BBC, it looks like the DUP position is in flux.
unless the EU rescues us with an extension (which, admittedly, it's looking more likely that they might. They're nice like that. Does rely on unanimous agreement though)
Not so much nice, more enlightened self-interest.
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Dio
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by Dio »

The DUP can't vote for May's deal. The only sensible ways out of the backstop are a permanent customs union (and the Four Freedoms) or an Irish sea border, and the latter has a strong likelihood of turning into Irish reunification in the 2030s. They can be under no illusions - they know the instant any mainland party has a real majority they'll be thrown under a bus on the border front.
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Absolute_Zero
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by Absolute_Zero »

Dio wrote:The DUP can't vote for May's deal.
If reports are to be believed they nearly did on round #2.
The only sensible ways out of the backstop are a permanent customs union (and the Four Freedoms) or an Irish sea border, and the latter has a strong likelihood of turning into Irish reunification in the 2030s. They can be under no illusions - they know the instant any mainland party has a real majority they'll be thrown under a bus on the border front.
OTOH imagine the nearer-term prospects for a border poll following a no-deal exit.
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by Dio »

Sure. They have to stop both.
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Cloudane
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by Cloudane »

Absolute_Zero wrote:Who knew? I'll wait for the denouement and then expand my rationale. *spoiler* Socrates and Darwin will be mentioned.
Talking in riddles again. I know you probably think it sounds intellectual, but really it just comes across as painfully arrogant.
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Absolute_Zero
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by Absolute_Zero »

Cloudane wrote:
Absolute_Zero wrote:Who knew? I'll wait for the denouement and then expand my rationale. *spoiler* Socrates and Darwin will be mentioned.
Talking in riddles again. I know you probably think it sounds intellectual, but really it just comes across as painfully arrogant.
Smug would be closer to the mark. I'm prodding you for clinging to a failing proposition instead of welcoming strong evidence that disaster will be denied. You'd rather be wrong, right?

What I want to discuss when it doesn't happen: Homo sapiens tendancy to fixatate on alarmist scenarios, and the consequences.
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Absolute_Zero
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by Absolute_Zero »

It looks as though JC will swing behind the Kyle/Wilson amendment that I previously flagged up. /Cassandra

https://news.yahoo.com/brexit-jeremy-co ... 00673.html

I doubt it would pass but hey, yet another way out.
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Cloudane
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by Cloudane »

Absolute_Zero wrote: Smug would be closer to the mark. I'm prodding you for clinging to a failing proposition instead of welcoming strong evidence that disaster will be denied. You'd rather be wrong, right?

What I want to discuss when it doesn't happen: Homo sapiens tendancy to fixatate on alarmist scenarios, and the consequences.
Smug works.. of course I hope your right, I just don't share your optimism I'm afraid, having watched countless hours of parliament on the subject at this point - the main issue is that the status quo is an exit without a deal on the 29th, and the only way to change that - pretty much every option you can think of, be it the deal, a second referendum, a vote of no confidence, revocation, etc - requires a majority vote across the house. As there's no consensus on what anyone wants, and amendments recently rejected that would've set aside time for indicative voting, it's hard to see how anything could possibly change.

I do accept now though that there's a reasonable chance (not a guarantee) of a lengthy extension, giving time for a general election and hopefully a majority government so they can get things done. Though considering the general public also doesn't know what it wants, it seems hard to form a majority government at this moment in time, and last time May tried it it backfired.

There are some things where I do stay optimistic and reject doom and gloom, even if just to stay mentally sane. Example, people talking about a book called The Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace-Wells, which apparently (I don't intend to read it) makes a very convincing argument that it's a foregone conclusion we're already past the tipping point of environmental catastrophe and the imminent extinction of mankind (save perhaps for a few wealthy elites). I'd rather stay optimistic that we're not quite done for yet.
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Re: EU referendum are you in or out

Post by PFVA »

I hadn't seen this one yet. I was reading a couple of American papers today and came across the topic of the Irish Americans and the Brexit aslo mentioned on the Irish Times. They have a very powerful lobby in the States.
Irish-American political clout may be a factor in any proposed US-UK trade deals
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/newt ... -1.3776331
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