EU referendum are you in or out

[MegaZoid.]

I'll be voting out.

[pogo]

When people say "x is stealing our jobs" I am always a bit baffled by the concept of 'our jobs' to start with. I feel at times like a alien when looking at some discussions. The idea that due to some random quirk of birth location you have a moral right to have exclusive rights to some activities and you get offended when other people dare take them....what?

Even worse than that the idea that there is is a fixed amount of work to go around, so immigrants coming in displace local workers, is a fallacy, the “lump of work” fallacy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy

It’s the fallacy behind using things like the 35 hour week to reduce unemployment. It doesn’t work and hasn’t worked where tried, as the experience in France shows. But you don’t even need to go so far to refute it. We had a massive influx of people when the EU expanded East, about a million over the period. Did unemployment spike as they displaced local workers? No. In fact we did not even know the full scale of this immigration at the time; it only became apparent later I think due to the census. Later when unemployment did rise migration went into reverse as people left due to work drying up.

[merman]

In.
You'll hear people say "what has the EU done for us?". And the truth is, a lot.

[tufty]

In, pretty obviously. In enough that I'm trying to work out how to get a postal vote, something I haven't bothered doing for the last 14 years.

[Rubisco]

In, pretty obviously. In enough that I'm trying to work out how to get a postal vote, something I haven't bothered doing for the last 14 years.

If you appear on anything that could be used as a list of British ex-pats to the EU then I wouldn't worry, you'll probably be contacted

[Darkflame]

In, pretty obviously. In enough that I'm trying to work out how to get a postal vote, something I haven't bothered doing for the last 14 years.

Get it sorted asap else you may not have time.
I was warned processing might take too long if it wasn't started already.

[gumboot]

In, pretty obviously. In enough that I'm trying to work out how to get a postal vote, something I haven't bothered doing for the last 14 years.

When I looked it appeared that I'd only be eligible to vote for 15 years from leaving the country. You sound a bit close, there.

[tufty]

In, pretty obviously. In enough that I'm trying to work out how to get a postal vote, something I haven't bothered doing for the last 14 years.

When I looked it appeared that I'd only be eligible to vote for 15 years from leaving the country. You sound a bit close, there.

Yep, but close enough to be able to stick 2 fingers up at the morons.

[snaff]

I'm massively pro-European and in favour of free trade and free movement of labour which is why I'll vote to get us out. The EU organisation isn't helping with any of these things. Europe is one thing and the EU is another - a big trick they pull is to act like these are the same.

Also, why have two governments anyway? If we stay in the EU we should at least vote ourselves out of Westminster.

[pogo]

You do realise that if we leave and want to keep free trade and movement of labour, then the deal we sign with the EU to get it will be much worse than the deal we have now? Look at what Norway and Switzerland had to sign up to.

They still have to implement all of the EU laws and regulations. They still have to allow free movement of people (both are in the Schengen area). They still contribute to the EU budget. The main thing they don‘t get is any say in these rules and laws, as they are outside the EU so not part of its decision making process.

And we will have no choice. The EU is not going to offer us a better deal than those other countries. Those in the Brexit camp who think we will be negotiating from a position of strength are deluded. The EU will hold all the cards. We will be the ones desperate to sign a deal to get back the access to EU markets.

We already have opt outs from the worst bits of Europe. We are not in the euro, which is a disaster for all involved. And we are not in Schengen, although that may not be a distinction much longer as countries reintroduce borders and border checks because of the refugee crisis.

[gravy]

Well we don't know what the terms would be to be fair but what you can definitely say is we won't have the whip hand in those discussions and it's be a negotiation where we have a lot less to offer than is being offered.


Another likely outcome is Scotland would very likely devolve from the UK as well.

[Darkflame]

Those in the Brexit camp who think we will be negotiating from a position of strength are deluded

Yeah, not all, but I have seen people that seem to think that the British are "so special" and "valuable" that they have a lot of leverage.
The idea that, for example, the millions of British living in Europe will all be allowed to stay in them because "they all contribute to those countries".

Now, to my knowledge, theres not been much discussion in europe about the legal status of ex-pats(?) - and I wouldn't be surprised if most countries ensured
nothing much changed for them. But its the idea its automatic and of course that I think is telling. Can you imagine the reverse? Would the UK offer anyone from europe automatically the same rights as locals if they didn't have too? (or, more specifically, can you imagine some of the people arguing for Brexit being in favor for that?)

Also, why have two governments anyway?

Sometimes one pulls back the other from doing too much shit.

[venusian]

Also, why have two governments anyway?

Sometimes one pulls back the other from doing too much shit.

Also subsidiarity. Cameron don't know shit about my village hall.

[VNVObit]

Another likely outcome is Scotland would very likely devolve from the UK as well.

wonder would that spur some Scottish nationalists to vote for out on the basis it would create pressure for another referendum?

can see it causing considerable problems for Northern Ireland (Responsible for UK's only land border) if Brexit was the result

[gravy]

It may but the trigger point IMHO would be UK as a whole in favour of brexit while Scotland wasn't.