EU referendum are you in or out

[Rubisco]

Another likely outcome is Scotland would very likely devolve from the UK as well.

wonder would that spur some Scottish nationalists to vote for out on the basis it would create pressure for another referendum?

can see it causing considerable problems for Northern Ireland (Responsible for UK's only land border) if Brexit was the result

No, they need a strong in vote in Scotland, and a strong out vote in England. The bigger the divide the greater the mandate. However, any Scottish nationalists living in England, such as those who hate the UK so much that they've been living in Bath for 25 years, might tactically vote out.

[pogo]

Now, to my knowledge, theres not been much discussion in europe about the legal status of ex-pats(?) - and I wouldn't be surprised if most countries ensured nothing much changed for them. But its the idea its automatic and of course that I think is telling. Can you imagine the reverse? Would the UK offer anyone from europe automatically the same rights as locals if they didn't have too? (or, more specifically, can you imagine some of the people arguing for Brexit being in favor for that?)

Yes. It is unclear exactly what would happen but if Britain decided to use the exit from the EU to stop migrants coming here to live and work then at least some EU countries would do the same to Brits. There are many things they could do. Boot them out, although that might look bad. Or they could require them to apply for permanent residence and citizenship costing thousands of pounds as it does here. Our property laws are uniquely liberal - we allow foreigners to come here and buy property. Many other countries don’t and enforced on ex-pats this could render many of them homeless or at least forced to sell at a loss, especially in wrecked property markets like that in Spain.

Of course countries are free to pick and choose who they allow in and allow to stay. The economically rational thing to do would be keep allowing in the young and productive, but make it harder for everyone else. At the same time as we are closing our borders to Polish, Romanian and Greek workers they could be letting in our workers but sending our pensioners home, making for a massive drag on our economy.

[tufty]

I wouldn't be surprised if most countries ensured nothing much changed for them.

Why would you think that, apart from a feeling that European governments mostly aren't a bunch of vindictive cuntbuckets? After all, part of the "out" argument is that europeans in the UK *won't* get the same rights as UK citizens.

Meanwhile, there have been some barely veiled hints from the French government that, should the UK vote "out", they'll open the gates at Calais.

[VNVObit]

It may but the trigger point IMHO would be UK as a whole in favour of brexit while Scotland wasn't.

My suspicion is that it will be mainly England that votes for out rather than the Wales, Scotland & Northern Ireland. wonder what happens if it turns out like that and the leave campaigns are the winners.

I wouldn't be surprised if most countries ensured nothing much changed for them.

That would require new legislation in each country and can't see there being much impetus for changing legislation

[Darkflame]

I don't think the rest of europe is as anti-UK as parts of the UK is anti-europe basically.

As I said in the post, I don't think its automatic, or should be expected. But at the same time I don't think many countries even consider UK ex-pats as a significant thing to worry about, so I don't think there will be particular pressure either way.
I could be wrong - maybe there is anti-uk campaigns dotted about europe with significant political pressure - but I suspect its less about vindictiveness on their part and more just whatever is easier for them legally. (remember some of these ex-pats might be home owners, or in various significant business positions - so depending on numbers kicking them all out could itself be quite a hassle too. Theres so many unknowns here I think.)

[pogo]

I don't think the rest of europe is as anti-UK as parts of the UK is anti-europe basically.

As I said in the post, I don't think its automatic, or should be expected. But at the same time I don't think many countries even consider UK ex-pats as a significant thing to worry about, so I don't think there will be particular pressure either way.

It will depend on the negotiations. If we negotiate a deal like Norway or Switzerland that includes free movement of people then British expats will be OK. But if the isolationist fringe insists on not letting EU citizens come here freely, then I am sure many countries will take the same attitude to our citizens.

The only positive, if you can call it that, is that after 18-24 months of negotiations with no progress, 18-24 months of uncertainty, recession and unemployment caused by Brexit, we will sign whatever deal is on offer. So we will sign a deal like Norway and Switzerland, including free movement of people, accepting all EU regulations, contributions to the EU budget, etc.. Migration will be down but only as Brexit will have wrecked the economy, driving foreign and British workers overseas.

[gumboot]

Have they figured out a way of having the referendum which forces people to vote or not bother voting? Like how they did with the PR referendum?

Rather than having an explicit "leave EU" option, which I'm sure they don't actually want chosen, have some kind of retarded token gesture that doesn't really mean anything instead.

[Little stoned kiwi]

Who's in to the point of doubling down by dropping the pound and embracing the euro?

[tufty]

Who's in to the point of doubling down by dropping the pound and embracing the euro?

I am

[gumboot]

Have they figured out a way of having the referendum which forces people to vote for no change or not bother voting?

How the fuck did that get dropped out? I remember it being on my screen.

[Rubisco]

They're not going to be nice to us if we leave. If we're seen as thriving on our own then others will want to follow. They might not actively try to stitch us up, but neither should we expect much help.

[venusian]

Who's in to the point of doubling down by dropping the pound and embracing the euro?

I am

<raises eyebrows>

Not opposed to the Euro on the grounds of loosing the pound but an area as large and diverse as the EU needs monetary flexibility between regions. IMO. Separate floating currencies is the obvious way to do it.

[zip accident]

Who's in to the point of doubling down by dropping the pound and embracing the euro?

I am

<raises eyebrows>

Not opposed to the Euro on the grounds of loosing the pound but an area as large and diverse as the EU needs monetary flexibility between regions. IMO. Separate floating currencies is the obvious way to do it.

Er, I think tufty lives in the Euro zone already.

[venusian]

Er, I think tufty lives in the Euro zone already.

Well aware of that.

[merman]

Who's in to the point of doubling down by dropping the pound and embracing the euro?

I still take the Gordon Brown line on that - when the time is right.