pogo wrote:Definitely. The deal on offer will basically be one like Norway has, which basically means we accept almost all EU rules and regulations, including free movement of people, and still pay into the EU budget. I.e. we will end up in pretty much the same situation as now, except worse off as we will no longer have any say over the rules of the EU. Plus we will suffer the economic damage due to the uncertainty while this is resolved.
Or we will be outside the EU’s Internal Market. We will still be able to trade but subject to the tariffs, bans and constraints the EU imposes. In particular although goods would flow fairly unrestrictedly services would be highly restricted. Our banks, financial services would have no right to operate in Europe. A lot of business based here would have to shift some or all of their operations into the EU. The city in particular would largely lose its role as the financial capital of Europe.
I was avoiding conjecture but personally I think we would be lucky to get a Norway deal. I expect the EU to stick the boot in and make it incredibly painful with free movement of people a prerequisite
"England is funny, but sometimes she scares me"
Tony Wakeford
More over, they simply can't offer the UK anything better than that.
It's not just that they really can't allow the perception of the UK having actually benefited from leaving the EU to flourish, lest other countries - liking the sounds of all that - also follow suit and the entire EU collapses like dominoes, as country after country exits in the hopes to succeed as the UK did...
...it's also that they simply can't offer the UK - or any other country - anything better than that anyway, as it would create a trade loophole.
For example, if every EU country has to pay a 15% tax on something but, hey, we'll give the UK a "special deal" and they only have to pay a 5% tax instead, then every single business hit heavily by that tax would all very quickly relocate their operations to the UK, in order to enjoy that 10% tax discount.
You'd be effectively creating a loophole in the EU trade rules and regulations.
Don't like that particular EU rule? Hey, just relocate your operations to the UK, as their "special deal" means they don't have to abide by that rule.
They simply can't offer any country a better deal than what we see with Norway - which is, indeed, basically exactly the same deal as any country within the EU, with exactly the same trade rules and regulations being imposed (paying into the budget, requiring free movement, etc.) but without any ability to control what those rules and regulations actually are - because they'd be creating a trade loophole, where you can dodge those rules and regulations you don't like by just relocating to the UK, and that would create a mass business exodus from the EU to the UK to exploit that "loophole", which they can't allow.
It is simply impossible to get a better deal than that. It can't be done. Not for anyone. As they can't allow these "loopholes" in trade rules, or every bugger in the EU will quickly move out of the EU in order to exploit that post-haste.
In addition to the fact that, yes, they'll likely offer a much worse deal than that, as they are compelled - it's nothing personal, you understand, it's just got to be the case, in order to keep the EU together - to ensure that the UK's exit hurt us. Because they can't afford to allow the perception that leaving the EU is a great thing to do that leads to great success.
We won't get a better deal than that, because they simply can't offer a better deal than that. It's just not possible. They can't allow the implicit "trade loopholes" it'd create to form. And, most likely, we'll get a far worse deak than that, because they've got to make EU exit a painful process to stop other countries thinking an EU exit is a great idea.
It can't happen. Any suggestions that we'd somehow get a better deal with the EU out of leaving is entirely cloud cuckoo land, as it's just not possible.
Even if they were minded to do so, which you can be absolutely sure they wouldn't be. Because we did just tell them all to go fuck themselves, after all, which is hardly a good basis to begin trade negotiations from.
(And it feels utterly bizarre that, well, today is the day of the referendum and I've not seen anyone really call out the Leave campaign on this obvious bit of bullshit, when it's very obvious logic here that it simply can't happen. Not possible. We're currently an EU member - the deal we've got now is the very best one that any country can ever be offered. No-one can be offered anything better, in or out of the Union.)
"Words ought to be a little wild - for they are assaults of thought on the unthinking."
- John Maynard Keynes
KlaxonCow wrote:*snip*
(And it feels utterly bizarre that, well, today is the day of the referendum and I've not seen anyone really call out the Leave campaign on this obvious bit of bullshit, when it's very obvious logic here that it simply can't happen. Not possible. We're currently an EU member - the deal we've got now is the very best one that any country can ever be offered. No-one can be offered anything better, in or out of the Union.)
Newsnight interviewed a rep from the EU about this very issue and he was clear (in their little roleplay game) that the EU's position would be Norway as a starting point and would look to improve on that (he also pointed out that UK could not receive any favourable treatment to avoid anyone else complaining/leaving)
The Brexit response is that Germans sell 1 million cars to the UK missing the important details that we actually buy 1 million cars, a considerable number of which are luxury (BMW, Mercedes, Audi, etc) which customers are not particularly price sensitive (status symbols , etc.) so I cannot imagine there being a sudden fall of in sales to nil which is the implication from Brexit camp.
"England is funny, but sometimes she scares me"
Tony Wakeford
VNVObit wrote:Newsnight interviewed a rep from the EU [...] (he also pointed out that UK could not receive any favourable treatment to avoid anyone else complaining/leaving)
Okay, I didn't see that myself. But at least there was someone saying it.
But the gist of the observation still holds, in that, well, one guy saying it on Newsnight hardly amounts to a vigorous debate on the issue. And, again, day of the referendum today - indeed, polls have opened as I write this - so votes are being cast and neither campaign seemed bothered to discuss an actual issue like this. Too busy with their fear / uncertainty / doubt rhetoric to actually supply any facts or logic to the electorate.
Basically, what I'm saying is that this whole campaign has been embarrassingly poor. Stuff like this should have been central talking points of a proper serious debate on the issues, not an incidental "by the way" at the end.
Ah, well. Too late now. Let us see where the chips will land.
"Words ought to be a little wild - for they are assaults of thought on the unthinking."
- John Maynard Keynes
Just saw a post from a local (to me) saying she'd voted out because then we'd be able to trade with Australia and India. I don't know, maybe she's never walked down the BWS aisle as the supermarket. Perhaps there should be some kind of competency test on the ballot paper?
I've been watching the odds at the bookies and they favour Remain in a big way. They have Remain at 11/10 (bet a quid, get £1.10 if you win), whereas you'll get 6 to 1 on Leave (bet a quid to win £7). In a 2 horse race 6/1 is a pretty massive outsider. That's lengthened from 3/1 a few days ago.
Mark wrote:I've been watching the odds at the bookies and they favour Remain in a big way. They have Remain at 11/10 (bet a quid, get £1.10 if you win), whereas you'll get 6 to 1 on Leave (bet a quid to win £7). In a 2 horse race 6/1 is a pretty massive outsider. That's lengthened from 3/1 a few days ago.
That's leapt. I put a couple of quid on leave yesterday and it was 3/1
merman wrote:that way it is truly representative of what people want.
Is there a box for "big screen tellies, cheap beer and curry"?
"massive retard™", "full of shit™", "tiny bitch™", "retarted™", "a bit of a one trick pony™", "petty™", "simple minded idealistic twat™", "miserable humourless fucker™"
kel wrote:i love europe and i'm sure we can still keep on good footing with them, but out, a change is always beneficial.
Beneficial how? One consequence of an out vote, if you love Europe, is it will become more expensive to enjoy it if the pound falls subsequently. If Brexit supporters get their way and use Brexit to limit EU citizens coming here, it will become harder for us to visit Europe, with visas, perhaps even limits (if they are imposed here).
But that’s a minor detail compared to the economic damage, the millions of job losses, the fall in GDP and in government revenues which will require cuts in spending hitting the most vulnerable.
I was just being an ass hat, to put it mildly. I don't know enough about politics to have a strong opinion of either route, common sense says stay but admittedly a part of me would like to see what happens if we where to leave but that's probably just out of morbid curiosity.
For what its worth the remain campaign has been very persuasive where i work, most of the people I've spoke to had been strong out supporters but as election date has drawn closer more have shifted towards remain, mostly out of fear of losing their jobs, but, hey.
