EU referendum are you in or out

[(o)(o)]

Corbyn fans not wanting him kicked out might want to get in on this one https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/ ... ter-brexit

Thanks, signed.

John McDonnell has performed very well in many appearances IMO and he talks sense, could potentially make a good PM.

Yet 75% or something of Labour voters voted remain, so it's the usual press hostility and sabotage. He was pretty much bang on of course - the EU isn't perfect but do you really to exit right now and end up in a Thatcherite wasteland...

[Dio]

63%. LD's 70%, for reference. So it's not like the Labour support utterly collapsed. The regions' problem is as much that Labour haemorrhaged a lot to UKIP at the last GE than current Labour voters being anti-Europe.

[(o)(o)]

75% in his constituency.

37% in tax avoider Hodge's constituency, so of course she's telling him to resign.

[Dio]

Yeah, but there's an obvious response: he should do the hard shit because it's his job. If he'd made it clear when he stood for leadership, "Hey guys, just so you know, if shit gets hard I'm outta here," how many people would have voted for him?

How about "If I stake my reputation on a decision, and that decision goes against me, I'm outta here"? Sounds fairly reasonable.

He could not possibly stay, because if he did, he'd be blamed for not just having the referendum in the first place, but any ensuing disaster, or indeed every tiny thing that the Leavers don't like: "He fucked it up for us because he didn't want to do it properly".

Indeed that's probably a gigantic problem even with Cameron going, given that even the Tory parliamentary party is well over 50% remain and it's going to be bloody hard to compose a government of Leave Believe. Farage is going to blame everything on that for the next ten years to keep his support going, and indeed possibly rising.

[pogo]

So, Scotland.

The SNP seem to think they need another independence referendum, having voted to Remain in the EU one. They have a point, but I suspect they have not thought it through.

For one they no longer have a majority in the Scottish Parliament, and all the other parties are set against Scottish Independence. Even if they could persuade someone to support them (and they only need one or two MSPs to defect) they still need the agreement of the UK government.

But assuming they can overcome those issues, the bigger one is: would Scotland really vote to leave the UK, if asked a second time. Here are the last two referendum results in Scotland.
2014: a 55% majority to Remain in the UK
2016: a 62% majority to Remain in the EU
I don’t see how that implies a new vote would be in favour of leaving. And things are worse for the leave case, in important ways. The budget situation, which was not especially favourable in 2014, is now far worse as the oil price has collapsed, making many North Sea operations uneconomic.

The political situation is much less certain, with the Brexit victory, meaning it would be hard to agree any sort of Scotland-UK divorce while Britain’s status in the EU is uncertain. It might have to wait until the end of the leave negotiations, so at least two years after Article 50 is invoked (whenever that might happen).

This pushes the time when Scotland could re-apply to join the EU far into the future, a process itself that would take many years and much expense. One particular cost would be the cost of establishing a new currency. Every country joining the EU needs to adopt the euro, which means they have to peg their own currency to the euro, eventually converting all of their money supply to the euro at the pegged rate.

[Cloudane]

Cameron did the right thing. He campaigned for remain, lost, and would be the wrong person to lead us into the independent country 'we' just asked for when his heart isn't in it. It may be one of the more honest things a politician has done.

Damn shame - whilst not a Tory fan at all, I think Cameron's been one of the best PMs we've had. Well, apart from the whole fucking referendum of course. But uh.. you know, in every other way! I think we're in for much worse next.

[(o)(o)]

So, Scotland.

The SNP seem to think they need another independence referendum, having voted to Remain in the EU one. They have a point, but I suspect they have not thought it through.

For one they no longer have a majority in the Scottish Parliament, and all the other parties are set against Scottish Independence. Even if they could persuade someone to support them (and they only need one or two MSPs to defect) they still need the agreement of the UK government.

But assuming they can overcome those issues, the bigger one is: would Scotland really vote to leave the UK, if asked a second time. Here are the last two referendum results in Scotland.
2014: a 55% majority to Remain in the UK
2016: a 62% majority to Remain in the EU
I don’t see how that implies a new vote would be in favour of leaving. And things are worse for the leave case, in important ways. The budget situation, which was not especially favourable in 2014, is now far worse as the oil price has collapsed, making many North Sea operations uneconomic.

The political situation is much less certain, with the Brexit victory, meaning it would be hard to agree any sort of Scotland-UK divorce while Britain’s status in the EU is uncertain. It might have to wait until the end of the leave negotiations, so at least two years after Article 50 is invoked (whenever that might happen).

This pushes the time when Scotland could re-apply to join the EU far into the future, a process itself that would take many years and much expense. One particular cost would be the cost of establishing a new currency. Every country joining the EU needs to adopt the euro, which means they have to peg their own currency to the euro, eventually converting all of their money supply to the euro at the pegged rate.

The usual bizarre logic. Of mother-fucking-course Scotland would exit if put to another ref now.

They've been shat on since the last referendum by Torys, and why should they go down with the sinking ship.

UK is finished.

[(o)(o)]

Cameron did the right thing. He campaigned for remain, lost, and would be the wrong person to lead us into the independent country 'we' just asked for when his heart isn't in it. It may be one of the more honest things a politician has done.

Damn shame - whilst not a Tory fan at all, I think Cameron's been one of the best PMs we've had. Well, apart from the whole fucking referendum of course. But uh.. you know, in every other way! I think we're in for much worse next.

One of the best PMs we've had!!

The country is in massive debt, public services are crumbling, education, national health service and welfare are all in meltdown..

What has he achieved for the people he's supposed to serve??

History will look back favourably on Brown. Cameron will be compared unfavourably to Thatcher.

[Meow]

Whilst not a Tory fan at all, I think Cameron's been one of the best PMs we've had..

WHAT....Lets see Attacks on the Disabled and the Pensioners. Pig-Gate and the off shore money scandal....Really.

[Little stoned kiwi]

If it really does demolish the economy and make the UK an awful place to live then that will solve the immigration problem.

[pogo]

The usual bizarre logic. Of mother-fucking-course Scotland would exit if put to another ref now.

They've been shat on since the last referendum by Torys, and why should they go down with the sinking ship.

You have a very short memory. In May Scotland elected a new parliament. The support for the SNP dropped, and they no longer have an overall majority. The main beneficiaries were the Tories. In fact the Tories had the largest swing of any party, gained seats from SNP and Labour, and now are the official opposition.

So seems Scottish voters don’t feel particularly ”shat on” by the Tories. Instead there seems to be a growing support for them. Scottish politics seems to be realigning along Nationalist-Unionist lines, and the Tories benefit from being closely associated with the Unionist cause.

[Cloudane]

The country is in massive debt, public services are crumbling, education, national health service and welfare are all in meltdown..

What has he achieved for the people he's supposed to serve??

History will look back favourably on Brown. Cameron will be compared unfavourably to Thatcher.

I know it's laughable but well - all those problems existed before he even came in. He's not been actively shit, imo, which as PMs go is an achievement.

Whilst not a Tory fan at all, I think Cameron's been one of the best PMs we've had..

WHAT....Lets see Attacks on the Disabled and the Pensioners. Pig-Gate and the off shore money scandal....Really.

Attacks on the disabled and pensioners are the tory party itself being a collective shithead. Keep in mind the PM is a figurehead.
Pig-gate, eh, tabloid crap. More interested in what he can do now than what he allegedly did drunk one day as a kid.

[zip accident]

Cameron will be compared unfavourably to Thatcher.

Nah.

He's a Tory. A lot of rubbish comes with that, and he's done Tory things. Compared to Thatcher, he's been an angel. Compare him to Heath or Macmillan if you want a reasonable comparison.

[gravy]

So, Scotland.

The SNP seem to think they need another independence referendum, having voted to Remain in the EU one. They have a point, but I suspect they have not thought it through.



For one they no longer have a majority in the Scottish Parliament, and all the other parties are set against Scottish Independence. Even if they could persuade someone to support them (and they only need one or two MSPs to defect) they still need the agreement of the UK government.

But assuming they can overcome those issues, the bigger one is: would Scotland really vote to leave the UK, if asked a second time. Here are the last two referendum results in Scotland.
2014: a 55% majority to Remain in the UK
2016: a 62% majority to Remain in the EU
I don’t see how that implies a new vote would be in favour of leaving. And things are worse for the leave case, in important ways. The budget situation, which was not especially favourable in 2014, is now far worse as the oil price has collapsed, making many North Sea operations uneconomic.

The political situation is much less certain, with the Brexit victory, meaning it would be hard to agree any sort of Scotland-UK divorce while Britain’s status in the EU is uncertain. It might have to wait until the end of the leave negotiations, so at least two years after Article 50 is invoked (whenever that might happen).

This pushes the time when Scotland could re-apply to join the EU far into the future, a process itself that would take many years and much expense. One particular cost would be the cost of establishing a new currency. Every country joining the EU needs to adopt the euro, which means they have to peg their own currency to the euro, eventually converting all of their money supply to the euro at the pegged rate.

Whatever the rights and wrongs if it a few people up here are considering their position.

Which makes sense: a chance of being in Europe vs the prospect of leaving coupled with another disenfranchisement of the Scottish electorate.

The SNP would lose support if they didn't push for legislation for another referendum.

They have thought this through, they know the timing right now isn't ideal which is why they're pushing for the tight to call one not to do one in the immediate future.

Out of all the political parties involved in this shit show they're the only ones showing any competence right now.

All written from the perspective of actually being in Scotland

[snaff]

That would be weird, Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU, but using Sterling as a currency. Surely nobody would join the Euro nowadays.