EU referendum are you in or out

[tufty]

I guessed there would be a fee, but is it really the same? I assumed it would be quite a bit less - what with not getting any EU subs and grants back etc.

According to the grauNiad back in 2012, something like 2.5 to 4 billion a year would put the UK in parity with Norway.

[gravy]

Norway's part of Schengen, something we would never be.

Well, unless Scotland joins the EU after we leave

But I imagine that would also be taken into account during negotiations.

[tufty]

Norway's part of Schengen, something we would never be.

Suppose "Jojn Schengen" became a non-negotiable part of Europe's punishment plannegotiation package?

[Absolute_Zero]

If anyone cares [Jeremy doesn't] - 172 : 40

I'm sure you can guess which side has confidence.

[Meow]

If anyone cares [Jeremy doesn't] - 172 : 40

I'm sure you can guess which side has confidence.

LOL. He's still not leaving according to beeb.

[Absolute_Zero]

It seems Boris sees some risk in him becoming PM and then calling a GE... fearing a push-back against him personally over vote leave.

So maybe the Labour supporters hereabouts, if they have any sense [in their dreams], should root for Boris. Personally, I'm not convinced he's a shoo-in for the final two. Assassins not inheriting the crown and all that. OTOH, Theresa may.

PS what fun! We live in interesting times... it's pretty rare that ALL the cards and chips go up in the air, outcome unknown.

[tufty]

There were rules? Where were they written?

European Union Referendum Act 2015, and PPERA 2000

Neither of those set out any rules as to what the criteria or margins would be for a preference to be determined as having definitively won, or what actions should be taken in the event that one preference does win. By contrast, for the 2011 referendum on PR, these rules were clearly set out in Section 8 of Part 1 of the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011. I would like to also make a comparison with the Referendum Act 1975 but I have not found a copy online, not even at legislation.gov.uk.

Hrm. Didn't have time to trawl through them properly this morning, looks like you're right. The 2015 act does reference the 2011 act, and section 9 of the 2015 act looks potentially interesting, but I'm to knackered (and on the way to being too pissed) to go through it all properly.

[pogo]

I guessed there would be a fee, but is it really the same? I assumed it would be quite a bit less - what with not getting any EU subs and grants back etc.

According to the grauNiad back in 2012, something like 2.5 to 4 billion a year would put the UK in parity with Norway.

That is no guide, as there is no rule for how much you would pay. It depends on negotiations, and the EU would have us over a barrel.

EU leaders are already saying negotiations can’t start until Article 50 is invoked, and that creates a hard deadline of two years. If the UK does not take what’s on offer from the EU then we are out of the EU without any trade deal.

The EU has every incentive to make it hard for us, to ensure that we come out of it worse than we are now, as a warning to other countries. They know that we will have to take it or leave it so can put in whatever they want.

[tufty]

the EU would have us over a barrel.

But … but … but … that nice Mr Farage went to the european parliament and explained to them how it would be worse for them. Surely that will make them play nice, because otherwise the no-longer-AAA-rated (maybe not so) United Kingdom won't buy their expensive cars, and will buy some proper BritishGerman Rolls Royces and Bentleys instead.

[pogo]

Well, if you think of it as only a trade deal we are still fucked.

Trade between the EU and UK is roughly symmetric, which means it’s worth the same in £ or € terms to us and to the rest of the EU.

But Britain is a much smaller economy than the rest of the EU. So this trade makes up a larger share of the UK economy than the EU economy. The benefit to us, of a deal with the EU, is much greater than the benefit to the EU.

So the pressure on them to agree is much less. They know once we come to our senses we will have much greater incentive to agree, even if the deal is worse than what we had before.

This also is why we are worse out outside the EU, when it comes to trade generally. The EU is a large economy. So is the US. So is China. So is India. All have little to gain in trading with the UK, so will offer little in trade deals and demand a lot more. That’s if they are even willing to talk to us, about trade.

[Darkflame]

Maybe we can threaten to withhold our tv shows and actors?
Not sure what else we do thats actually worth much these days.

[snaff]

http://www.lbc.co.uk/im-so-scared-now-german-woman-hit-by-xenophobia-calls-james-in-tears-132971

That was hard to listen to

That's the fault of the Remain campaign. They falsely conflated motivation to leave with racism, so then a few idiot racists suddenly think that 52% of the population are with them and they are emboldened to make some noise.

[tufty]

Not sure what else we do thats actually worth much these days.

We've got hard won expertise in "how to fuck up a referendum". Given how much it's cost us, that's gotta be worth something, right?

[The ghost of raids past]

"I fight on. I fight to win."

- Margaret Thatcher, 21/11/1990

maybe Mr Corbyn should study history

[(o)(o)]