EU referendum are you in or out

[gravy]

And if the economy heats up through the benefits of cheaper exports it's likely going to mean with an interest rate rises.

I’m 100% sure that won’t happen. For one the prices rises will be temporary and one-off, and so inflation will go up in the coming months, but down again 12+ months from now. The BoE explicitly targets inflation 6 - 12 months in advance. Secondly inflation is low now; even if it rises it might only reach 2% or a little more, hardly something to worry about.

But most importantly the inflation rise is a sign of economic weakness, not strength. It will hit people in their pockets. Wages are rising at around 2%, so if inflation rises that far it will mean real wage growth is flat, even negative. the BoE won’t need to raise interest rates to rein in the economy, the slump because of the Brexit uncertainty will do it for them.

I think that wages have been flat or negative for a long while now and if there's some economy growth from cheap exports you'll see a lot of pressure to up wages that have likely (I'd need to check ) declined in real terms over the last decade

[gumboot]

perhaps petrol first as that is most sensitive to oil prices, but eventually everything that is imported will be affected.

That hasn't happened yet?

[pogo]

I think that wages have been flat or negative for a long while now and if there's some economy growth from cheap exports you'll see a lot of pressure to up wages that have likely (I'd need to check ) declined in real terms over the last decade

The other argument is many people thought the same in 2008. But, although we saw a export-led recovery in the early 1990s, after exiting the ERM, no such recovery happened in 2008.

I think still the reasons are still unclear, but a few suggest themselves:
* our exports are very different compared to even a couple of decades ago. Manufacturing has declined. Oil production has declined significantly and we are now net importers. We export mostly services which are far less sensitive to exchange rate variations.
* the weakness of our main trading partners. That is still true.
* the nature of the recession – the 2008 recession was triggered by a financial crisis. Unfortunately the banks have come out worse from this episode so far, due to the risks to them and the city from Brexit.

[Ollie]

One thing I think might be legally enforceable would be extending advertising standards to official political statements.

AIUI, the reason political campaign advertising is exempt is because political promises are contingent on too many unknowns. To which I would say, maybe they shouldn't be allowed to express them as such firm promises. But in any case, statements expressed as known facts ("We send £350 million to the EU every week") which are definitely untrue certainly shouldn't be allowed.

[pogo]

[snaff]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36670075

Brexit: Singapore bank UOB suspends London property loans

Minor thing on its own and not directly related to Brexit, but a positive sign.

[gravy]

Another clear indication there's a belief we're in for an asset value crash.

In other news, well done Leavers! This who coordinated all of the swill you swallowed:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... are_btn_tw

Seriously though, put aside the editorialising and just look at the direct quotes.

I don’t think it’s Vote Leave’s job to provide figures ... accuracy is snake oil for pussys

That's kind of concerning isn't it?



A lovely man! The commitee chair is great, I love his laconic but laser precise questioning

EDIT: this definitely worth watching through to the end. I am genuinely lolling now

[Harlequin]

In other news, well done Leavers! This who coordinated all of the swill you swallowed:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... are_btn_tw
Seriously though, put aside the editorialising and just look at the direct quotes.

I don’t think it’s Vote Leave’s job to provide figures ... accuracy is snake oil for pussys

That is probably the only quote that is not direct:

The snake oil pussy was the subtext of everything Cummings was saying. Everything else actually happened

Andrew Tyrie is wonderful in that, though.

[gravy]

Ooops!

Jedburgh just pointed out Cummings is at the core of the Johnson / Gove fiasco

http://reaction.life/boris-done-cuckoo-nest-plot/

[offyoutoddle]

that article describes Cummings as being clever but an acquired taste. One I have no appetite to acquire. I thought he came across as deliberately obtuse in that video a few posts back, to the point of making himself look down right stupid. Current events will progressively make him look even worse one would hope, but accountability over this is falling on text book sloping shoulders at every turn I'd say. Mind you , the committee chairman was being horrifically smug, surprised anyone said they liked his style. Not a room I'd have liked to have been in.

[snaff]

A lovely man! The commitee chair is great, I love his laconic but laser precise questioning

EDIT: this definitely worth watching through to the end. I am genuinely lolling now

I prefer watching Jacob Rees Mogg have a go at that reptile Carney.



Carney threatened he would raise interest rates in the event of us leaving the EU, in an effort to frighten indebted mortgage holders into voting to remain.

[gravy]

Now when you say 'that reptile', you're not getting a bit David Icke?

[pogo]

Carney threatened he would raise interest rates in the event of us leaving the EU, in an effort to frighten indebted mortgage holders into voting to remain.

When did he threaten that? If it’s in that video then please give a time stamp, as I don’t fancy sitting through 20 minutes of that to catch it. But really, the risks on a vote to leave are all on the downside, so much so that the next interest rate move is most likely to be down, and possibly very soon.

[Darkflame]

I think holding politicians accountable is something we can all get behind.

I've always liked the simple idea of introducing a rule whereby MPs are only allowed to use public services.

So, they can only have NHS treatment. Their children must go to state-run schools. They're only permitted to travel by public transport. Et cetera.

Thus, if they run it badly, then they personally suffer. But, equally, if they run it well, they benefit. And there is the simple underlying logic too that by being users of the things they run, they'll actually remain perfectly in touch with what's going on, and what's right and what's wrong with the service.

So, you know, it's only a punishment if they do a bad job and run awful public service. Therefore, it personally motivates them to give a shit that it isn't.

YES.

[snaff]

Now when you say 'that reptile', you're not getting a bit David Icke?

Like all great religious leaders Icke can be interpreted in different ways.

If you read Icke's reptiles as people who are disconnected from the concerns of ordinary people then I can go along with that.

If it's the reptiles = 'the jews' school of thought then I'm not sure that's how the world works.

If it's V-style reptiles then I'm not convinced either but won't dismiss any evidence as it mounts.