snaff wrote:Carney threatened he would raise interest rates in the event of us leaving the EU, in an effort to frighten indebted mortgage holders into voting to remain.
When did he threaten that? If it’s in that video then please give a time stamp, as I don’t fancy sitting through 20 minutes of that to catch it. But really, the risks on a vote to leave are all on the downside, so much so that the next interest rate move is most likely to be down, and possibly very soon.
It was all over the news, I forget when exactly - hard to google now he's saying the exact opposite but here's one reference:
gravy wrote:The risk premium to uk assets has increased. He was right
That bank refusing mortgages on expensive London property is basically a change of interest rates to infinity
But London property was expensive before talk of Brexit. The argument is that we can't accept any kind of change because prices are too high - everyone is living too close to the edge of ruin. It's the ideology behind low interest rate policy that puts us in that position in the first place. Then those same people who pushed that try to influence policy that they are not supposed to have any power over, because it not going their way could expose the mess that they've made.
snaff wrote:Carney threatened he would raise interest rates in the event of us leaving the EU, in an effort to frighten indebted mortgage holders into voting to remain.
When did he threaten that? If it’s in that video then please give a time stamp, as I don’t fancy sitting through 20 minutes of that to catch it. But really, the risks on a vote to leave are all on the downside, so much so that the next interest rate move is most likely to be down, and possibly very soon.
It was all over the news, I forget when exactly - hard to google now he's saying the exact opposite but here's one reference:
That’s not “Carney [threatening] he would raise interest rates”. It’s him observing that if things go badly wrong, so much so that investors shun the UK, then the risk premium, which is the difference between base rates and what people actually have to pay, would rise. Mortgages might get more expensive, for example. That might happen anyway if house prices fall and banks adjust their mortgage offers to account for this.
But right now UK assets such as shares seem quite popular. The pound has only fallen 10% which we will notice with inflation so low but in historic terms is not so much.
pogo wrote:The pound has only fallen 10% which we will notice with inflation so low but in historic terms is not so much.
So far, all we've seen is market jitters. No actual decision has been made, and, most importantly, Article 50 hasn't been triggered. It's all a bit «plus ça change» at the moment. I'd be interested to see what's happened to short positions on Sterling and the FTSE indices (particularly the 250 and 350), I suspect that would be quite telling.
"massive retard™", "full of shit™", "tiny bitch™", "retarted™", "a bit of a one trick pony™", "petty™", "simple minded idealistic twat™", "miserable humourless fucker™"
pogo wrote:The pound has only fallen 10% which we will notice with inflation so low but in historic terms is not so much.
So far, all we've seen is market jitters. No actual decision has been made, and, most importantly, Article 50 hasn't been triggered. It's all a bit «plus ça change» at the moment. I'd be interested to see what's happened to short positions on Sterling and the FTSE indices (particularly the 250 and 350), I suspect that would be quite telling.
Article 50 won't happen anytime soon. Oct/November perhaps. I shudder seeing Theresa May going for leadership. It brought back memories of Thatcher. Why are the Tories such vile government?
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....I'm the BEST thing that has ever happened to ME............I think therefore I'm a Yam.
Michael Gove has said his bid to become Tory leader and prime minister is driven by "conviction" about what is right for the UK not personal ambition.
The justice secretary said that when he concluded Boris Johnson was not the "right person", his "heart told him" that he should put himself forward.
He vowed to cut immigration by blocking EU free movement and spend an extra £100m a week on the NHS if he wins.
If we then put together this ..
Chancellor George Osborne has abandoned his target to restore government finances to a surplus by 2020.
We can probably suppose that around 2018 , should the things above happen, they'll be discussing about how to stop the riots of people looking for food ...
gravy wrote:The risk premium to uk assets has increased. He was right
That bank refusing mortgages on expensive London property is basically a change of interest rates to infinity
But London property was expensive before talk of Brexit. The argument is that we can't accept any kind of change because prices are too high - everyone is living too close to the edge of ruin. It's the ideology behind low interest rate policy that puts us in that position in the first place. Then those same people who pushed that try to influence policy that they are not supposed to have any power over, because it not going their way could expose the mess that they've made.
The argument is that Brexit in general is harmful to the economy and will damage external investment. It's not just house prices and fuck all to do with people living too close to each other.
That particular example is an investment choice that would have been YES before Brexit and is now NO
There will be a lot more of these. The real killer are the ones we'll never know about. Any multinational that was looking to open an EU base won't have the UK on the list anymore. Why would they?
They are basically asking/trying to move the company "out of UK", the problem is if UK really goes for a "no freedom of movement" EasyJet will be forced to re-negotiate ALL the fly rights with every single EU country and this anyway could end up in a massive waste of time/money, could even spell the end of EasyJet itself.
On the other side Ryanair is probably "laughing" ( or maybe not ) because they are Ireland based which is EU and does not have this problem.
EasyJet is already saying that they are already going to reduce investments in UK and that because of Brexit quite probably fares will raise up a 20%, they say they plan to leave the Luton airport.
Osborne threatened that interest rates would have to RISE after Brexit, to cope with inflation.
Carney is now saying part of the Bank of England's strategy to help the pound will include monetary easing and the possibility of LOWER interest rates.
The two statements are not mutually exclusive or contradictory, both reflect the shitstorm caused by Brexit.
And Osborne dropping the pledge to balance the books - clear he's trying to toady up to certain leadership contenders, as Theresa May suggested yesterday it would be difficult to reach a surplus by 2020 after Brexit. So six years of austerity were not enough...
Just finished working with a long term contractor yesterday who'd done a fair chunk of work for BoE and he said there's probably no-one left that actually knows how to change the interest rate because it's so long since it last happened & they have a policy of constantly shuffling people around roles.
Mmm, just sipping some Plymouth Gin, it's nice. It's a product with PGI, I wonder if we'll be able to continue with those certifications or have to come up with a local equivalent.
gravy wrote:There will be a lot more of these. The real killer are the ones we'll never know about. Any multinational that was looking to open an EU base won't have the UK on the list anymore. Why would they?
They''ll still want to come because everyone here is so lovely. It'll all be fine.
Also the weather.
XBox Gamertag: GovernmentYard
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gravy wrote:There will be a lot more of these. The real killer are the ones we'll never know about. Any multinational that was looking to open an EU base won't have the UK on the list anymore. Why would they?
They''ll still want to come because everyone here is so lovely. It'll all be fine.
Also the weather.
And the food. Mustn't forget the food.
"massive retard™", "full of shit™", "tiny bitch™", "retarted™", "a bit of a one trick pony™", "petty™", "simple minded idealistic twat™", "miserable humourless fucker™"
Was going to put food, reconsidered on the basis that if you can afford to open branches of your multinational in a nation, you can afford the good cuisine wherever that might be... and if you've cash in your wallet there's amazing food in the UK. It's just few of us have any.
XBox Gamertag: GovernmentYard
Everything else: governmentyard
