EU referendum are you in or out

[KlaxonCow]

But what if they are irrational, as so many Remain-supporting commentators asserted they would be in the run up to the referendum?

As a Remain-supporting commentator who made such assertions to that effect in the run up to the referendum, I was not saying that the EU would be "irrational" to do so.

On the contrary, my concern was that it was the perfectly logical thing to do. I don't want them to screw us over, as I'd be amongst those on the receiving end of that, but, as I covered before, it actually just makes sense from their point of view, towards their own interests, to be a bit of an arsehole about it.

Top of the list, they have to ensure that there is no snowball effect in the rest of the EU from this. It can't be seen to be a good move to Brexit, or we'll soon see Grexit and Dexit and Frexit and all the rest of them, one by one, following suit to also get all the good times that the UK is enjoying too, if they allow Brexit to be this awesome pain-free experience of lovely rainbows and unicorns.

Because, if they don't do that, then the EU is doomed. It is potentially an existential threat to the entire institution. So, you know, between an existential threat and being a bit mean to the Brits then I completely understand their need to be a bit mean to the Brits, to ensure their own continued survival.

That's not at all irrational. Self-preservation is perhaps the most understandably rational instinct of them all.

[pogo]

Apart from not letting us get a better deal than Norway, Switzerland, etc. there are perfectly rational reasons to insist on free movement of people with trade.

The single market is a market for goods and services. And you can only have a single market for services if you have free movement of people, as many services are provided by people moving around, as services are just people doing things, as opposed to goods being just things. Without free movement of people there is no single market.

Perversely we benefit from this. The UK has a trade deficit in goods but a trade surplus in services. I.e. we export services to pay for our import of goods.

It’s people like David Davis that are irrational, both for wanting less immigration, and for thinking that it’s a separate issue from the Single Market. Problem is if he truly thinks that he is going to get nowhere in negotiations. Most likely he will spend six months treating the rest of the EU with contempt and insults, before he is replaced with someone with a little more sense.

[Dio]

The really comical thing is it sounds so far like even on borders what they want is free movement for brits in Europe but not vice versa. Everything they've said about any putative 'deal' is mind-bogglingly one-sided.

I really struggle to understand how it's going to work. I don't even know how you'd phrase the treaty. Are we going to sign up to something where we say "We promise to be bound by the EU rules... whatever they are and whatever they become in the future"... how does that achieve any Leave goal?

[pogo]

In a roundabout way he seems to be preparing us for a clean Brexit, i.e. with no deal on the Single Market. E.g.

So be under no doubt: we can do deals with our trading partners, and we can do them quickly. I would expect the new Prime Minister on September 9th to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals with all our most favoured trade partners. I would expect that the negotiation phase of most of them to be concluded within between 12 and 24 months.

Which of course is nonsense (the Sept 9 date was the expected result of the leadership election – this was written a few days before). The problem is we can’t do deals until it is clear what our relationship with the EU is. If we are in the Single Market then that subsumes all trade deals. We can’t do a separate deal with e.g. the US to give them access to our markets if they are also the EU markets.

If we are not in the Single Market then we can do deals. But we won’t know that until at the earliest 2 years after we invoke Article 50 (at the earliest as the negotiations can be extended). In theory we could do conditional ones, e.g. ones that only come into effect if we leave the Single Market. But no country is going to waste their time negotiating with us on those terms. They are going to wait until our status is confirmed, before starting any talks. And even then they are going to be in no hurry.

[tufty]

But we won’t know that until at the earliest 2 years after we invoke Article 50

I'm not certain, but I think that's wrong. If, for example, negotiations went like this (and I'm not so sure they won't) :

- We want unicorns and fairy poop
- Don't be so sodding ridiculous
- No, really, we want unicorns and fairy poop or we'll take our ball and go home
- Is that your last word?
- Yes
- No takey backsies?
- No
- OK, don't let the door hit you on the arse on the way out. Bye.

we could be out faster than you think.

[gribbles]

One of my favourite images of this whole shambles is now a serious looking euro-gent looking sternly over his glasses across a polished conference table at David Davies and saying "No Takey backsies?" in a thick French (or possibly German) accent.

Thank you for that.

[gumboot]

They should put it in the constitution.

[gravy]

ARM sold to Softbank.

Sterling's devaluation makes asset stripping the UK easier than it ever was.

Thanks BREXIT!

[Dio]

Looking at the share price it's appreciated about in line with the fall of sterling so that's pretty much already priced in .

[Absolute_Zero]

It's pretty fanciful to assume that something like this was cooked up in a matter of 24 days... it may have greased the wheels however.

[gravy]

Hey fuck off everyone with all your facts

[VNVObit]

It's pretty fanciful to assume that something like this was cooked up in a matter of 24 days... it may have greased the wheels however.

probably in pipeline for sometime but decision and ensuing fallout were probably a trigger to enact while relatively cheap for foreign investors.
There are undoubtedly funds which worked out potential targets and scenarios based on fallout from brexit. so may be more to come. worst case scenario would be for buyers to move actovities out of Britain into more stable economies which given the fantasy spouted by David Davis yesterday cpuld be anyone else. hmm Ireland in EU, educated workforce ...

[(o)(o)]

That's not good is it.

ARM truly is an asset to the UK.

BBC seem to be saying we'll see a wave of foreign buy-outs.

How about selling the Royal Family they must worth a few quid..

[Little stoned kiwi]

What trading options does Brexit open? The UK is free to import and export any products with any country without the EU's (and/or member nations) involvement. It's essential if the UK is to have any negotiating leverage with the EU.

And will Saint Sandy now return to the UK?

[pogo]

That's not good is it.

ARM truly is an asset to the UK.

Depends how you look at it. We have a current account deficit. Some think it is a bit high.

UK current account deficit deepens Brexit fears

We are only able to maintain this as foreigners are prepared to invest in the UK, by buying shares and bonds, and buying firms like this. The current account deficit was £32.6bn in the first quarter. Softbank paying £24bn for ARM will therefore contribute significantly towards keeping out current account healthy.

What happens if foreigners lose interest in plugging this gap in our finances? Probably the pound falls, far enough that British assets look like bargains again, which could mean a good deal further than the 10% drop we just experienced.