EU referendum are you in or out

[VNVObit]

If we’re heading for a hard Brexit, then we’re heading for a united Ireland

Patrick Kielty's take on why DUP may actually want a second referendum (ok that's hidden deep within the text but...)

[Dio]

Yeah, I nearly posted that one this morning.

There's a great bit about the "technological border", and the impossibility of avoiding either a hard border or one in the Irish sea:

As the prime minister Maybots her way through the charade of alternative arrangements, there’s only one thing you need to know – there are no workable alternative arrangements. If there were, you’d have heard of them by now. The details of this technological masterpiece would already be a double-page spread in the Daily Mail with Rees-Mogg mocked up as Alan Turing under the headline “Enigma cracks Enigma – spirit of Bletchley takes back control”. If an alternative arrangement that worked actually existed (or was likely to exist in the next couple of years) Brexiteers would have already accepted the backstop, knowing they could easily replace it with their idea during the transition. The fact that they won’t bet on themselves tells you all you need to know about what they have in the locker.

This part is also interesting:

Whisper it quietly, but the best outcome for the DUP is actually a people’s vote. They’ll scream red, white and blue murder if it happens but privately breathe a sigh of relief. Like Boris Johnson, they never wanted Brexit but wanted to be seen to support it. A second referendum offers an escape from their worst nightmare, while allowing them to reluctantly go along with “the will of the entire country”. Very unionist.

Because I wonder if you could say the same for May. The only real chance for her deal is a referendum, but she cannot be the one to support it.

[merman]

So now we will know on the 12th... I mean 13th... Actually the 14th of March if we are still going ahead with Brexit.

[KlaxonCow]

The Conservatives currently have 314 seats, and the DUP, as you say, bring 10. That makes 324 out of 650, 2 short of a majority

But Sinn Fein never attend, so effective number of seats in 643. Think there's a vacant seat at the moment too.

Also, equally, the Independent Group is eating into Labour's numbers too (in fact, more so) - so this effectively reduces the overall majority line for the Tories / DUP, where Labour and the Independent Group vote in opposite directions, if you see what I'm saying.

Whether technically a majority or not, what's definitely happening is that this is further fucking up what was already an incredibly slim majority anyway - and with rebellions on all sides and TIG for those rebels to resign their way into and the ERG being a bigger enemy to May's plans than Labour right now, the situation is rapidly falling apart in all directions simultaneously.

Whatever the numbers, the result - for sure - ain't good, as everything's getting increasingly more random at every vote.

[Cloudane]

There's no majority for anything at this point which is why I'm still pretty sure it'll be the default position at the end of March of crashing out...

[Absolute_Zero]

I'm pretty sure we won't be crashing out. Whatever the final voting option(s) are, a large majority would regard the default as the worst of all and vote accordingly... else be blamed for the consequences.

Simplifying it down to the current options... do you think that Corbyn would whip against May's deal if that irrevocably meant crashing out? I can't see it.

It might be a shitty deal but it's waaaay better than no deal.

[Dio]

And such is the game of chicken that May is trying to play.

[KlaxonCow]

There's no majority for anything at this point which is why I'm still pretty sure it'll be the default position at the end of March of crashing out...

Which I, and others, were predicting several months ago, pointing out the impossibility of the Parliamentary arithmetic. Which has only gotten worse since.

But I guess it's nice to see the people who're supposed to be in charge of this whole process finally catching up to the obvious consequences of their inactions - that was being predicted months, even years, in advance by everyone else. Now, finally, they've caught up on their own stupidity.

[Cloudane]

I'm pretty sure we won't be crashing out. Whatever the final voting option(s) are, a large majority would regard the default as the worst of all and vote accordingly...

But here's the sticking point as played out in the parliamentary voting over the past few weeks: the house emphatically voted an indication that they do NOT want a no deal, that's great.... but that's just indicative and the law remains that we exit in a month with or without a deal..... the only way to stop it is to come to a consensus on what they DO want. Or rather, it appears that a majority is dead set against a delay, a majority is dead set against a second ref, a majority is dead set against revoking, and a majority is dead set against no deal. But these are in conflict - nothing (delay / second ref / revoke) has enough support to pass a vote as both major parties are split six ways from Sunday. The only thing that has shown indications of support is "May's deal without the backstop" or with these supposed 'alternative arrangements', and it would seem the EU are not going to budge on that at all.

[tufty]

and it would seem the EU are not going to budge on that at all.

Not to mention that any formal EU decision on that point, even if they were to budge, would happen around the 21 March, /a week after/ the touted date for the "meaningful vote". About the only point Corbyn really managed to hit home in his response to May's new timetable, and that was somewhat drowned out by the peals of laughter when he said "Labour has a credible plan".

[Rhythm]

The No Deal crew are doubling down. My MP is going nuts that it might be slipping away. And then there's nonsense like this. This fella is Christopher Hope - chief political correspondent at The Telegraph. Manages to confirm in one Tweet that he still doesn't understand a single thing that's going on

I have an idea: why doesn't the UK leave the EU on March 29 without a deal, save £39bn to help British companies and unilaterally agree to abide by EU rules for 21 months?
This would allow us to sort out trade deals (having left) which can then start at the end of 2020. #Simples

[skab]

The No Deal crew are doubling down. My MP is going nuts that it might be slipping away. And then there's nonsense like this. This fella is Christopher Hope - chief political correspondent at The Telegraph. Manages to confirm in one Tweet that he still doesn't understand a single thing that's going on

I have an idea: why doesn't the UK leave the EU on March 29 without a deal, save £39bn to help British companies and unilaterally agree to abide by EU rules for 21 months?
This would allow us to sort out trade deals (having left) which can then start at the end of 2020. #Simples

"Simple" indeed.

Love the comments:

@robert19pearson
i've unilaterally agreed to win the lottery....

@JagM_85
Just agree to the same numbers on the day of the draw and you're quids in, apparently

@jammykam
Don't even bother buying a ticket, just tell them you expect the same benefits as if you had bought a ticket.

Even if the Commons or whoever is actually in charge at the time decides to extend A50, they would still need unanimous support from all EU states. So if, say, Spain said "no" over Gibraltar, the UK is crashing out. Hell, even a "no" from Luxembourg would suffice.

And, of course, love Labour's tiptoeing around a 2nd ref:

Labour supports second referendum!

To let people decide between May's deal and Labour's deal...

[snaff]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-euroz ... st_id=noID

Germany and the Netherlands have benefited enormously from the euro over the 20 years since its launch, a study has found, while for almost every other member the single currency has been a serious drag on economic growth.

The study, by the Centre for European Politics, a German thinktank, shows that the currency bloc’s most scrupulous devotees of fiscal orthodoxy who have been most critical of bailouts of indebted periphery countries over the years have been its greatest beneficiaries.

Launched in 1999, the euro triggered credit and investment booms by extending the benefits of Germany’s low interest-rate environment across the bloc’s periphery.

But those debts became hard to sustain after the 2008 financial crisis, with Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus - forced to seek financial aid as growth slowed and financing became scarce.

Over the entire period since 1999, Germans were on average estimated to be cumulatively richer by 23,000 euros ($26,000)than they would otherwise have been, and the Dutch 21,000 euros wealthier. By contrast, Italians and French were each 74,000 euros and 56,000 euros poorer respectively.

[merman]

I signed an online petition - on the official Government site - saying Article 50 should be revoked if there was no Brexit plan by the 25th of February.

I got an e-mail saying that the petition would be debated. On the 12th of March. Sums up how well this shambles is going.

Oh, and Chris Grayling strikes again. £33 million paid to Eurotunnel over the unfair and secret bidding process for cross-Channel services post-Brexit. So not only was millions wasted giving the contract to a COMPANY WITH NO FERRIES, now millions more has gone to a company that didn't get the chance to bid...

[KlaxonCow]

Oh, and Chris Grayling strikes again. £33 million paid to Eurotunnel over the unfair and secret bidding process for cross-Channel services post-Brexit. So not only was millions wasted giving the contract to a COMPANY WITH NO FERRIES, now millions more has gone to a company that didn't get the chance to bid...

A company that, you know, at least has the ability to take things across the channel...