EU referendum are you in or out

[KlaxonCow]

Playing with the flags some more, if Wales was added into it - to make up for the loss of Scotland and just to get some colour back into the flag again - we could do something like this:



I mean, we might as well start discussing this now, as this is ultimately where Brexit is all going to end up...

[gilesgoat]

No no no no .. you forgot .. if that happens Wales wants to be independent too

[KlaxonCow]

No no no no .. you forgot .. if that happens Wales wants to be independent too

Wales has wanted independence for a very long time already.

Indeed, in the early 15th century, it actually was independent and was winning its war of independence - even capturing some English bordering territory, up to the Mersey and the Severn, in fact, beyond liberating all of Wales - and was recognised by the French as an independent nation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Owain_Glynd%C5%B5r

But, ultimately, while Glyndŵr's more "guerilla" tactics was good for initially capturing land, it could not secure those wins long-term against a vastly more resourced opponent and the English King Henry IV slowly recaptured it all, suppressed the revolt and got Wales back under English rule.

Glyndŵr was never captured and disappeared. There are rumours that he disguised himself as a monk to live out his days, and that his supporters buried him in a secret location that's still not known.

[Dio]

Pfft. All that matters in Wales today is beating Scotland .

[KlaxonCow]

Pfft. All that matters in Wales today is beating Scotland .

Indeed.

One must have one's priorities in order, after all.

[zip accident]

The Beeb have this snazzy flow chart (turns out quite chunky, hence the spoiler):

Spoiler: show

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47482047

What I want to know is why "no brexit" is only under "delay brexit". What makes abandoning the mess impossible without a delay?

[tufty]

The only options that are going to be given to anyone are "no deal" and "interminable votes on May's deal". Once, inevitably, May is out of the frame, it will be "no deal" or - umm - errr - no deal.

[KlaxonCow]

What makes abandoning the mess impossible without a delay?

May's ridiculous levels of stubbornness that Brexit should mean Brexit, come what may.

Corbyn's unspoken support for this, so there's no alternative being offered here.

The referendum result - all MPs are shit scared that failure to deliver Brexit would put all their arses out on the street at the next election.

The fact that a second referendum has absolutely zero guarantees of overturning Brexit anyway. It's possible. But it's equally possible that it just delivers "Leave" once again and then we've gotten absolutely nowhere fast. Even if it delivered "Remain", if it only delivered it by, say, 52% to 48% then this is hardly conclusive and would cause eternal debates (yes, even though that's exactly what happened the first time around, in the opposite direction - though it's somehow forever referred to as "the Will of the People" as if 99% of everyone voted Brexit).

Worse, if a second referendum is a three-way option - "May's deal", "no deal" or "no Brexit" - then we've got the arithmetical problem with a three-way that you could win on 34% of the vote. Which is not a majority. Referenda are almost always binary "yes" or "no", exactly because any more options arithmetically allows a win on a minority vote. And then it's an even more eternal debate - say, "no Brexit" wins on 35%, but this means that the non-"no Brexit" options of "May's deal" and "no deal" had 65% of the vote, so you can forever argue that far more people (nearly double the amount) voted not to have a "no Brexit" than voted "no Brexit", even though it technically won.

The Australian American's tabloid toilet roll would run "TRAITORS OF THE PEOPLE!!" headlines to stoke up public rioting and feed the psychology of right-wing extremists to shout "Britain First!" as they murder MPs like Jo Cox. Because "brown people".

Because, seriously, it has to be taken into considering that they're not just scared of election results, they've also reason to be scared of being killed for advocating "Remain" too loudly - as that actually already happened. Not that, very weirdly, much is made of that fact.

(And even if not as extreme as murder, there have been plenty of MP harassment and death / violence threats being thrown about. Of course, yes, on principle, in an ideal world, an MP should stand their ground for what they believe in and would succeed on the strength of their conviction to do what's right... and all that type of Hollywood bollocks. But, in reality, if you receive a constant stream of death and violence threats aimed at you and your family, then let's see how principled you can remain for how long. And even if you do remain principled, how you might be very tempted to remain principled in an extremely low key and quiet way, so as not to attract too much of the wrong attention.)

Impossible? No. Improbable because of so many forces all aligned against it? Yes.

[zip accident]

If Brexit was inevitable the stock markets here ought to be panicking, but they're not.

If there was a commons vote on Brexit, would or could Corbin whip for Brexit?

There was an EEC thing about BST being stopped or something, what's happening to that? Brexit's chased it off the news, is that deliberate?

[TFO]

So the vote on the deal that had already been defeated twice previously lost again.
Surely our politicians aren’t so stupid as to vote for a No Deal*, so we have to assume that the options now are extension and another referendum or straight out revoke

* The only problem is that they are that fucking stupid

[tufty]

he options now are extension …

Which can be blocked by any of the 28 members

[VNVObit]

he options now are extension …

Which can be blocked by any of the 28 members

Will the Spanish want to discuss Gibraltar first?

[Cloudane]

Predictions for the coming days:
13th - Parliament rejects leaving without a deal (pointlessly, just as it was last time they did that vote)
14th - Parliament agrees by a narrow margin to extend, as they'd rather this than leave without a deal
15th - May goes to EU to discuss/request extension, is gently reminded that an extension will only be agreed if it's to give time for a second referendum, general election or a short technical extension to give time to ratify the withdrawal of article 50
19th - Announcement of further debates and a vote to be held on the 21st for a second referendum
21st - Parliament rejects second referendum by a slim margin as just too many MPs see the "concerns about the future of democracy if the same question is asked twice" as more important than the survival of the UK
22nd - May goes back to EU to ask again for an extension, is reminded that if there's no second referendum then the only way she's getting it is withdrawal or a general election
25th - Corbyn tables another motion of no confidence in the government, to be held on the 28th
28th - Government wins confidence vote due to parliamentary arithmetic
29th - Time runs out and we leave without a deal

Wake me up when March ends

[PFVA]

Here the word (on the news) is that there will be an extension and (i'm the one adding that) hopefully along the extension the British will change their mind about Brexit.

KlaxonCow,

The new United Kingdom of England and Wales has to have the dragon, otherwise the Welsh may want to leave. And besides that dragon is very cute.

[gilesgoat]

Here the word (on the news) is that there will be an extension and (i'm the one adding that) hopefully along the extension the British will change their mind about Brexit.

KlaxonCow,

The new United Kingdom of England and Wales has to have the dragon, otherwise the Welsh may want to leave. And besides that dragon is very cute.

The extension should be given only for 'reasonable reasons' at this rate they could be continuing to go back and forth forever.

While I'd love they'd change their minds, I think that's precisely the ( other ) problem they want to avoid.

Suppose they'd give another referendum, some people think that now "a real big majority" would say "no to Brexit" after all they've seen.

BUT, is that really going to happen or it's another close call or worse it's another close win of the "yes Brexit" ?

And if you get a win for no-Brexit that is NOT a "huge win" how do you sort out things ?

The only maybe "fixable" way would be the government saying "we done a mistake let's stop things" because at this point I think it would be better than another referendum and would be "a big statement".

But that's never going to happen.

Honestly I have no idea about what's going to happen.