EU referendum are you in or out

[Harlequin]

The Corbyn plan now seems to be to support the Kyle-Wilson Second Referendum amendment to the Third Meaningful Vote on May's deal (if the Government bothers to hold it), then not encourage Labour MPs to vote for it because he wants to negotiate his own Brexit from scratch (which renegotiation the EU appears to be against).

[Cloudane]

I get the impression that they're not dead set against a full renegotiation under a different political party with probably another 2 year extension (as much as I hate the thought of another 2 years of all this crap - we need to move on, not leave everything on hold because of "Brexit uncertainty", it's really damaging). They're just of the view that what they've agreed with May is final between them and May based on what she and her party are willing to agree to (very different to what Labour are willing to agree to), and unwilling to have her re-opening negotiations just to inevitably carry on demanding the removal of the backstop and not giving an inch from her side. She is, as they say, a bloody difficult woman. Letting Corbyn have a go would be a full reboot. But, I think, surely it requires a General Election, and then for the general public to get over their Corbyn allergy and give them a big enough majority to get it done (so they don't just go through 2 years of negotiations only for the opposition and rebels to vote down the new deal whenever they table it, just as is happening to the Tories now). The problem is largely that minority governments struggle to get anything done as it is, and here they are trying to make one of the biggest changes in British history.

[Rhythm]

(as much as I hate the thought of another 2 years of all this crap

An awful lot of the damage is already done. There'll be another 5-25 years of this regardless of which outcome we get now. Brexit was only ever the start of the process, not the end

1 - leave on 29th with deal - start the process of moving past the transition. Cue several years of contractual and political renegotiation
2 - leave on 29th with no deal - as above, now with the added drama of plugging the holes caused by the swift cancellation of all those contracts. Not just a case of renegotiating, but instead of having to restart a lot of stuff from scratch and rebuild trust especially given that we've just been proven to be willing to walk away from financial commitments
3 - delay A50 - attempt to renegotiate the WD, then move to choice 1 or 2 as appropriate
4 - revoke A50 - deal with the internal turmoil that causes then try *hard* to rebuild faith in the UK and woo back as many lost companies/organisations as possible

[Rhythm]

Holy fuck. Bercow finally waves the rulebook with a cry of "Enough!"

[Absolute_Zero]

A couple of provisional points...

1. Bercow's ruling only applies to a distinct parliamentary session. A new session can begin in a matter of weeks, so a short extension to A50 would then allow the Govt to re-present.

2. Parliament is in charge of its own standing orders... there could well be a majority to allow the vote. For example, those wishing to support the Kyle/Wilson amendment (support motion -> confirmatory ref on May's deal vs remain) would otherwise lose their opportunity.

[Rhythm]

A couple of provisional points...

1. Bercow's ruling only applies to a distinct parliamentary session. A new session can begin in a matter of weeks, so a short extension to A50 would then allow the Govt to re-present.

Wouldn't that need the queen to OK a proroguing?

[Absolute_Zero]

Queen/Privy council.

A session of Parliament runs from the State Opening of Parliament, in the past this has usually been in November through to the following November. However, in 2010 the Leader of the House announced the Government's intention to move towards five 12-month sessions over a Parliament, beginning and ending in the spring.

The Queen formally prorogues Parliament on the advice of the Privy Council.

Prorogation usually takes the form of an announcement, on behalf of the Queen, read in the House of Lords. As with the State Opening, it is made to both Houses and the Speaker of the House of Commons and MPs attend the Lords chamber to listen to the speech.

The same announcement is then read out by the Speaker in the Commons. Following this both the House of Commons and House of Lords are officially prorogued and will not meet again until the State Opening of Parliament.

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/occ ... orogation/

[edit] I assume "spring" is the equinox version. i.e. Thursday.

[merman]

2016: let's Leave to give Parliament sovereignty

2019: how dare Parliament exercise its sovereignty

Well played Mr Bercow

[PFVA]

Now i'm completly lost.

[Harlequin]

I get the impression that they're not dead set against a full renegotiation under a different political party with probably another 2 year extension (as much as I hate the thought of another 2 years of all this crap - we need to move on, not leave everything on hold because of "Brexit uncertainty", it's really damaging). They're just of the view that what they've agreed with May is final between them and May based on what she and her party are willing to agree to (very different to what Labour are willing to agree to), and unwilling to have her re-opening negotiations just to inevitably carry on demanding the removal of the backstop and not giving an inch from her side. …

Admittedly, my own impression of the EU's likely resistance is primarily influenced by the memo statement of the Commission's general secretary: "Imagine that they have a new Brexit secretary or prime minister – what then? Article 50 has been agreed and the process has ended. It must be clear that the starting point is not a renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement."

[guythp]

Now i'm completly lost.

A bit like the UK's going to be eh?.. EH?

[KlaxonCow]

Well, when I made the point that May can't just keep asking the exact same question again and again - whilst, hypocritically, ruling out a Second Referendum on the strength that it would be "anti-democratic" to ask the people again (though, of course, a Second Referendum would NOT be asking the same question) - but I didn't ever expect Bercow to actually legally enforce that principle.

Not least because, really, the second vote on May's deal should never have happened either, by the same rationale. But I guess the trick there was that May was portraying it as a "breakthrough" and that it was materially different... until the Attorney General stood up and explicitly said "nope, legally, there's been absolutely no useful change whatsoever". But he did that at the 11th hour before the vote, when it couldn't be sensibly cancelled.

And I guess Bercow was quietly pissed off at this trickery. That they'd sneaked a "contempt of Parliament" under his nose, by claiming things had substantially changed, right up until the last second, so it couldn't be reasonably called off.

So he didn't act at that point... but he was going to remember what they did, trying to play him and Parliament for fools, and now they want to try a third time? No fucking chance. "Overruled".



(Terrible quality video, I'm afraid, but the "This Week" running joke is most apt for this and it's all I could find on YouTube.)

[KlaxonCow]

Oh, and whilst prorogation is, of course, technically possible, this would be taking this whole farce to new levels of cynicism.

To shut down Parliament, only to immediately re-open it, simply to "reset the counter", so that they can push the exact same question - which has been defeated twice and the first time was the greatest government defeat in recorded history, no less - on Parliament for a third time, for May to get her deal via "the Shawshank method" of harassing everyone until they concede, simply to end this "Chinese Water Torture" of having the same vote dripped on your forehead again and again and again...

...and, bluntly, why? She's going to flip a 149 vote loss into a win, within mere days?

All that and there's a more than perfectly good chance that she'll just lose for a third time anyway - because none of the material facts or the deal have changed one jot nor iota since the last vote. Then what? A fourth or a fifth time?

Can someone hit the reset button on the back of Maybot's head? As she seems to have gotten stuck in an infinite loop here.

[guythp]

If someone can hit the reset button on this whole fucking thing that would be nice.

BTW KlaxonCow, you are John Bercow and I claim my five pounds.

[Little stoned kiwi]

It's just like an escape artist trick. The suspense is enthralling. Will the UK escape from the locked milk can at the bottom of the river in time?