EU referendum are you in or out

[Cloudane]

Seems so tight in parliament that I expect the division on Saturday to be tied and then the Speaker has to decide, goes for the status quo (by convention) and votes it down, and depending on whether we crash out or not (i.e. how watertight the Benn bill is) will be branded either a traitor or a hero by Brexiteers

[tufty]

Is it going to be over now?

Will the new deal be accepted?

The "new deal" is May's deal, with some of the more extreme stuff stripped out and replaced with what the EU demand, but most of the guarantees for workers, the environment, and, ironically enough, parliament's role in the ongoing discussions, moved out of the legal part of the document to the "political declaration" part. Anyone European living in the UK (giles), or UK citizens living in the EU (me) should be very worried about that second part, particularly given https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10999 ... olicy=6764

So, it's Boris' Surrender Deal. A slightly toned down version of May's deal, with some more extremist possibilities slipped in. Plus there's the thought that Boris could use it to get around the Benn Act, by getting agreement for the deal in parliament, and then having it filibustered (or even shutting down parliament again) in order to run out the clock and "accidentally" crash out with no deal. Perhaps this is TFH territory, but remember we're talking about a PM who has never knowingly told the truth and absolutely wants a no deal crash out.

Labour have said they won't support it, but won't sanction any of their MPs who might vote for it.
The DUP quite simply can't support it. At least not without another very significant bung.
The ERG won't support it unless they've been assured it's only a ruse for a halloween crash out.
Anyone truly against Brexit won't support it, as the Benn Act offers an extension and the possibility of arranging a second referendum.
Anyone who cares about the enironment or the rights of citizens shouldn't support it as it provides pretty much zero legal coverage for any of that .

Those scared that Boris might have backchanneled the Benn Act to scupper an extension might support it.
Less rabid brexiters scared of the Benn Act might also support it.
Rabid brexiters assured that Boris has a "halloween no deal" ace up his sleeve might also support it.

Personally, I don't think Boris believes it will fly. After all, it's less of a Brexit than the deal he voted against 3 times. But it is an easy way to make parliament the scapegoat for his failure to live up to his brave words. And he may still believe he has a way to sidetrack the Benn Act ad crash out with his beloved "no deal".

[VNVObit]

even a bung won't get DUP on board as they have to fend off the UUP, though NI business leaders like it as it maintains status quo.

Customs border in the Sea means ROI just needs to go via ferry to France (new ones already set up) to avoid unnecessary bureaucracy.

The deal itself is basically an earlier iteration of May's deal with loose political declaration

It's been sickening listening/reading UK media yesterday with various levels of " he did the impossible" when in cold light of day he basically just changed his red lines and sacrificed DUP support to get his deal

EU said they were always open to looking at deal where red lines had changed
The backstop is effectively the default position with sea border
political declaration is a non binding document so any changes there were always non-controversial
Level playing field may have left the withdrawal act but will feature in the FTA negotiations (mad not to)

[tufty]

political declaration is a non binding document so any changes there were always non-controversial

Yeah, but moving safeguards from the legal part to the political declaration *should* be massively controversial. It'll be brushed under the caret by the pro-brexit press, though.

[Dio]

Perhaps this is TFH territory, but remember we're talking about a PM who has never knowingly told the truth and absolutely wants a no deal crash out.

I think that's a misrepresentation of Boris' position. I don't think he cares that much about what kind of Brexit we get, as long as it's one where he looks like the genius that got it through and can finagle that into a convincing win in a general election.

[tufty]

I disagree. His entire schtick has been aimed at appeasing his buddies in the ERG and convincing the gammons that they actually voted for no deal. Now, it may be that he thinks the only way he can be the great genius of Brexit is to keep the ERG on board, or that the only way to get any kind of Brexit is to crash out in defiance of parliament's will, but I doubt it. If it looks like a duck dogshit, smells like dogshit, has the same texture as dogshit, and has the same taste as dogshit, you've probably gone at least one step too far. In any case, his motivation is irrelevant, he's trying very hard to get no deal. Remember

No deal is better than a bad deal

Boris has just negotiated a very very bad deal indeed.

[Absolute_Zero]

Remember

No deal is better than a bad deal

You take him at his word on this point, why?

More obviously the case (IMO) is that Brexit is but a mere vehicle for his overweening blond ambition. He'd say/do almost anything to top the greasy pole.

If little else, I've got Boris to thank for the joyous sight of the DUP pleading in the name of the GFA.

Prediction: I doubt he'll win the vote but it probably doesn't matter to his grand design too much.

[(o)(o)]

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/ ... 16872?s=21

[Rhythm]

Leave.EU and the ERG are all on board, it seems. A view has been taken that "it's not the Brexit we wanted but it's close enough and we can crash out at the end of the transition period".

Something that was then echoed by Raab and Gove declaring pretty much exactly that

[Dio]

I was always a bit surprised they didn't go for May's deal on those grounds, frankly.

[tufty]

Probably because May's priorities were rather different to Boris'. They couldn't be seen to be voting for a "soft brexit" without outright saying they were doing it to get a no deal outcome, and that's something you can only say when you have a leader who has the same priorities as you. I'd have said that betting on Boris being PM in 15 month's time is a bit of a stretch, except there's no-one credible to kick him up the arse.

[zip accident]

Probably because May's priorities were rather different to Boris'. They couldn't be seen to be voting for a "soft brexit" without outright saying they were doing it to get a no deal outcome, and that's something you can only say when you have a leader who has the same priorities as you. I'd have said that betting on Boris being PM in 15 month's time is a bit of a stretch, except there's no-one credible to kick him up the arse.

I'd say that if Brexit, it's a certainty that Boris will be PM for three or four years, because nobody else will want to take the blame for the mess. Why he would want that, when he will be totally out on his arse for a very long time afterwards I can't guess.

[venusian]

That may not happen to Johnson though. He and Reese Mogg seem to have tapped into a very British vein of bowing down to affable toffs regardless of the consequences. Because somehow this tiny group embodies Britain and if they're content, Britain is happy.

We look with disbelief at foreign countries that vote in rapacious dictators yet here we are...

[Dio]

Remember, this is a Brexit about saying "fuck the establishment".

[Cloudane]

Today's episode of this shitshow was very confusing.

This will go on for years...