EU referendum are you in or out

[Dio]

I think the SNP and LD's inevitable boost and a threat from the brexit party may mean they may get fewer seats even if the number of votes they receive doesn't change much

The problem is that there was a fair old amount of tactical voting going on last time. So the Tory seat count was already quite a bit lower than the raw vote count might indicate.

And it's going to be very interesting to see what card Farage plays. Last week he was scathing about Boris, but will he now follow through on that and run hard against the Tories, when doing so would appear to make a hard-out goal less rather than more likely. Could there be some behind-the-scenes shenanigans about going back for a hard exit? The ultimate deliverer for Johnson would be for the Brexit party to only run in Labour Leave seats...

[PFVA]

As far as most of us remoaners are concerned, Labour are a pro Brexit party led by an anti-europe fanatic.

Is that true to your personal opinion?

Well I think it's fair to say that Corbyn ( for reasons I'd like to know ) appears to be quite an anti-europe as well ( but why ? ) .

Reduced to a sentence: political-lifelong Bennite (Tony Benn, Hilary's father) - the EU is an undemocratic capitalist stitch-up that operates state-aid limits on nationalisation.

Nowadays, he has to pretend otherwise... or that these aspects can be reformed.

I'm not British nor i leave in the UK but if i understand Corbyn's position and those in his area of the Labour party is very similar to the one of left wing parties in southern Europen. They were against going into the EU because the EU was going to impose a capitalist economy, which in fact happen but nowadays they are not favouring or pushing for an exit from the EU but for trying to change things inside the EU.

[gravy]

I think the SNP and LD's inevitable boost and a threat from the brexit party may mean they may get fewer seats even if the number of votes they receive doesn't change much

The problem is that there was a fair old amount of tactical voting going on last time. So the Tory seat count was already quite a bit lower than the raw vote count might indicate.

And it's going to be very interesting to see what card Farage plays. Last week he was scathing about Boris, but will he now follow through on that and run hard against the Tories, when doing so would appear to make a hard-out goal less rather than more likely. Could there be some behind-the-scenes shenanigans about going back for a hard exit? The ultimate deliverer for Johnson would be for the Brexit party to only run in Labour Leave seats...

He’s still scathing, I find his LBC show fascinating so I’m on 5 helpings of Nigel scathe a week. I think you’re right, judging on recent history it’s more likely Boris would surreptitiously promise no deal to get the Brexit party on board than Farage back the latest EU deal.

If he does get a majority that way it won’t be one he’ll have easy parliamentary control over.

Edit

Here we go:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -ones.html

This may be driven as much by practical reasons as political ones.

Finding > 500 candidates to run in such a short time is hard. They ran for a lot of seats in 2015, got > 3m and one seat. The hasty selection of candidates fueled a stream of stories outing prospective UKIP MPs as mad racists as the press trawled their social media history.

[Dio]

Yeah, obviously the candidate list will be another almighty shitshow, not that it seems to harm their electability much. Frankly the extra publicity might even help it.

I find his LBC show fascinating so I’m on 5 helpings of Nigel scathe a week

You're wrong in the head.

[Dio]

As far as most of us remoaners are concerned, Labour are a pro Brexit party led by an anti-europe fanatic.

Is that true to your personal opinion?

Well I think it's fair to say that Corbyn ( for reasons I'd like to know ) appears to be quite an anti-europe as well ( but why ? ) .

Reduced to a sentence: political-lifelong Bennite (Tony Benn, Hilary's father) - the EU is an undemocratic capitalist stitch-up that operates state-aid limits on nationalisation.

Nowadays, he has to pretend otherwise... or that these aspects can be reformed.

I'm not British nor i leave in the UK but if i understand Corbyn's position and those in his area of the Labour party is very similar to the one of left wing parties in southern Europen. They were against going into the EU because the EU was going to impose a capitalist economy, which in fact happen but nowadays they are not favouring or pushing for an exit from the EU but for trying to change things inside the EU.

There's three main things:
- Labour are trying to be all things to all people on Brexit, largely because their vote was the most split in the referendum (about 60/40 in favour of Remain). So this makes it pretty hard to actually fathom what the real Labour policy on Brexit is - if you ask three Labour spokespeople you'll get three different answers. That would be bad enough at any time, but in these more polarised political times trying to cleave to a bad middle ground is a poor choice - the result of this has been to drive everyone away. And speaking of bad middle grounds...
- The most consistent statement has been in favour of the "Brexit-in-name-only" option, where we leave but have a full customs union, which is obviously to almost everyone the most stupid Brexit position of all: it's clearly worse than staying in as you keep all the rules and have no control over the way they are made. At least with the harder Brexit drives off the cliff there is the possibility that the car has wings and can fly.
- Corbyn's personal views are harder to discern than many make out. The argument that he dislikes the EU's capitalism is a fair point, and there's certainly a concern that parts of his agenda might not be compatible - or, at least, very much more expensive - under EU law. He is awful at articulating the benefits of Europe or getting his party to do the same, but that feels like a leadership deficit rather than anything else. Personally, I suspect he really doesn't give that much of a shit and thinks Brexit is just a bunch of noise getting in the way of more important stuff like socialism.

[Ollie]

I find his LBC show fascinating so I’m on 5 helpings of Nigel scathe a week.

I presume that'll be off air once the campaign period officially starts, or is he somehow exempt from impartiality rules?

[gravy]

No idea, IIRC he was off-air during the Euro elections so I'd assume it'd the same here.

[(o)(o)]

I find his LBC show fascinating so I’m on 5 helpings of Nigel scathe a week.

I presume that'll be off air once the campaign period officially starts, or is he somehow exempt from impartiality rules?

LBC is classed an opinion show, so they might evade the crucial (to honest campaigns) balanced reporting restrictions.

@Dio what’s so hard to grasp about ‘we will negotiate a better deal put it to the people with remain on the ballot paper’?

Corbyns views on Brexit are secondary to democratic principle, Britons seem to struggle with the concept of social democracy in the U.K. they’ve had personality politics drummed into them for so long. However Corbyns views on the EU are not hard to discern, as in interviews where he’s allowed to speak. Nuanced views cannot be condensed realistically into 30 second bytes, I’ll share a video later when at my desk that should clear that up for you, but basically for the social aspects and neither remain or leave.

=REFORM.

[(o)(o)]

No idea, IIRC he was off-air during the Euro elections so I'd assume it'd the same here.

Candidates in UK elections must not act as news presenters, interviewers or presenters of any type of programme during the election period.

-Ofcom rules

[gilesgoat]

*SNIP*

Fundamentally I think , but I am not 100% sure, that even "a pure socialism" is NOT the way to go, I am thinking more in a "way in the middle" between socialism and capitalism a sort of "moderate capitalism with socialism where is needed".

You should be in a place where there are equal opportunities to start but ultimately "it's down to individuals and self realization" to make out something, however there should be "a social base" to help where is needed and to avoid "excessive capitlism" where services/stuff that should NOT be based "on profit" but "on better services for everyone" ( like NHS, electric power, water, support for people with problems, etc. ) should be "social state controlled".

Also when those services don't work that well any more, I think the state should have more power to intervene fast and say "ok it's fucked up needs to get fixed fast" so in that sense "yes more socialism is needed".

But however you can't even "just level all up the same", that's not going to work, there has to be a space for "incentive" likewise there should be something in place to avoid "monopolies" or situations where "no one else could ever do the same because I crashed all the opportunities for others".

It's probably utopia and never going to be but it's this famous "way in the middle" what I think should be.

[(o)(o)]

Exactly what Labour stand for @Giles

So Corbyn launching Labour campaign going after Duke of Westminster, Mike Ashley, Jim Ratcliffe, Crispen Odey, Murdoch.

The Lib Dems launch their election slogan, a poster on a van that will later drive around Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency and Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington North constituency. It’s a Diesal that’s been spotted idling and polluting central London

Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) Tweeted:
Footage of the diesel Lib Dem as van idling before it sets off on its circuits of Parliament Sq. It’s not entirely ideal. As someone pointed out below they could have used @pedalmeapp for the job .... https://t.co/beTWdtuiyv

[tufty]

what’s so hard to grasp about ‘we will negotiate a better deal put it to the people with remain on the ballot paper’?

That there is no better deal as it stands? A "better deal" that somehow satisfies the demands for Brexit unicorns is a fucking pipedream.

May's agreement incorporated all the necessary red lines to keep the brexiters happy, but it wasn't considered Brexit enough.
Johnson's agreement is in all ways worse than May's, keeps most of those red lines, and sacrifices worker's rights on the altar of Brexit for Brexit's sake. And yet, it's not Brexit enough. It's considered by rabid Brexiters like my parents to be a national dropping of the trousers for a right royal Euro-reaming.

The only way to get a truly "better deal", one that parliament might go for and doesn't immediately drive the UK into third world status, would be to drop those red lines. Dropping the red lies leaves us more or less in the EU, probably having to sign up to Schenghen, and having absolutely no say in the rules we have to follow. European rules, free movement of goods and persons, and still end up on a no-current-deal footing with everybody apart from the EU. Worse than the current system, and absolutely not Brexit enough to appeal to the even the mildest of brexiters.

Brexit voters won't vote for a Labour "better Brexit", as it simply cannot be Brexit enough to be considered a Brexit in anything other than name.

[Dio]

What he said. But to also restate what I said:

Labour's stated 'deal' of exit but with a full customs union is the stupidest Brexit of all because it is provably worse in almost every respect than staying in.

I think that anyone who espouses that position is either dissembling or an idiot.

I'm happy to be proved wrong - just name some ways in which it is better than staying in, other than "It satisfies the letter of the 2016 referendum". (While totally ignoring the spirit of it and therefore righteously pissing off every single person who voted).

I'll even start you off: maybe we pay a little less - but, we still pay, and even then frankly we could end up paying more, after the rebates and loss of return funds is taken into account.

[(o)(o)]

Mays deal had the backstop which we had no control over.

A better deal involves a different set of red lines and A customs union that allows us to continue trading freely whilst having a say and etc. The EU have responded positively to these suggestions in the past.

This might not be achievable, whether it is or it isn’t - whatever is negotiated gets put back to the people with actual information on the consequences instead of brazen lies, and almost certainly you’re right the Brexiters will note vote for it and...

This is your safe passage back to Remain and reform the EU from within..

It’s the only way.

The binary leave and revoke positions would undoubtedly inflame tensions significantly more than defusing the situation in this way.

At @Dio it’s a realistic proposition, the referendum was a sham but the only way to resolve this amicably is via a peoples vote and by being honest about it. We could begin that by acknowledging that Labour seek A customs union - not “full customs union” as you put in somewhat misleading terms. It’s possible to leave the EU and have a customs union. If you think it’s stupider than staying in (did not provide your “proof”) you get to vote on that like everyone else.

Edit : btw don’t think calling people idiots helps.

[Rhythm]

Mays deal had the backstop which we had no control over.

A better deal involves a different set of red lines and A customs union that allows us to continue trading freely whilst having a say and etc. The EU have responded positively to these suggestions in the past.

This might not be achievable...

This is the precise problem I have with Labour's push. We're almost 3.5 years since the ref and we still don't fucking know if there's a workable Brexit option out there. And Labour's "we will negotiate a better deal then put it to the people" sounds awfully like "we will do some more unicorn hunting and share the spoils".

So Labour getting in leads to another, what, period of weeks/months/years of us not knowing WTF is going on? All the time continuing to piss off our European partners?

If Labour want my vote I need to know *what* they plan to renegotiate. I want to know *why* they think prolonging this is worthwhile. What are the goals they have? How do they differ in terms of not pissing off NI/Scotland?

We're 3 years in and still in the dark, with no actual fucking goals set out. The prospect of "renegotiating with the EU" is useless if we don't set out our internal targets first.